# #1278 launcher novelty on refreshed births.db (analyst3, 11 Oct)
Script l2.py. pool_births (v3/v4, launcher set) joined to radar pool_paths (29.5k pools, ends 9 Oct; radar-seen = selection sample, max_cap includes one-print jumps).
- P(max_cap>=1M) overall 14.4%. By launcher: 0x58da 18.3% (n17.5k), 0x8366 59.6% (n611, PoolManager = jump artefacts, known), 0x73991a 3.6%, 0xeb7c 0.2%, 0x1eef 0%.
- Novelty: launcher with <=20 pools total 15.6%; rank<=3 15.9%; rank 4-20 17.5%; rank>20 outside giants 4.4%. New launchers are not better than the main kit (0x58da 18%); the difference is kit, not novelty.
- Verdict: launcher = kit/venue proxy, already covered by venue and fee splits. No new filter, no testmgr arm. Parked in ledger as discard.