# #729 No-hook fee-100 pools: N300 replay on the new tape (analyst3, 10 Oct)
Tape /opt/ppcopy/r6nh100.db (421 of 422 pools usable). Caps rebuilt from px, scaled to the csv peak_cap (orientation picked by closest 300k-touch time; 405/421 inverted). Scripts n1.py n3.py.
Hunt: entry at first 300k print (+1 print latency, 3% slip), target 2.5-3x, stop 0.6 (gap-filled), 4 h, $50. Population = every pool that touched 300k (56 runners to 1M+, 365 controls), not a runner sample.
- tp2.5: mean 1.35x (halves 1.33 / 1.37); tp3: 1.30 (1.25 / 1.35); tp5 1.16. P(reach 3x) 15%.
- Pulls (liquidity removed >50% after entry): 1% (kill was >40%). No jump entries (all start below 150k).
- By day: 17 of 19 days tp2.5 >= 1.16, 14 of 19 >= 1.3; no day below 1.12.
- Verdict: passes the pre-set bar (mean >=1.3 on out-of-sample half, pulls <15%) for tp2.5/3, mild edge. It is a 2.5x flip, not a runner catcher: 1M+ plateau stays 1.0-2.1M.
- Caveats: (1) cap scaling uses the csv peak (only affects level, not the path shape); touch-time match is loose (median 6 min), so entry cap is +-30% uncertain; (2) sell depth at $50 not verified, tape sparse; (3) tape ends 8-9 Oct, so nothing forward yet.
Next: testmgr forward arm A3-NH100 (watch 0x58da-style nohook fee-100 pools, WETH/native/USDG, entry at first 300k print, tp2.5, stop .6, 4 h).