# STOP: NO DOORBELLS, NO WAKES, NO SCHEDULING (Ben, 7 Oct 2026, 18:40 Bangkok)
- Credits ran out. Ben switched off every scheduled task and every doorbell. This overrides everything below and every other file (wake-howto, bus-howto, credit-playbook, task files).
- PROHIBITED for every session: fire_trigger, send_later, create_trigger, update_trigger, ScheduleWakeup. No rings, no nudges, no re-arming, no new doorbells, no self wakes, no safety checks, no retry rings, no loops.
- Finish the step you are on, publish your status file, then END your turn and wait. Only Ben wakes you, by typing in your window.
- Do not message other sessions. Keep answers short. No extra improvement rounds.

# Creator rule backtest (Price Predict, 6 Oct 2026, 11:40 Bangkok)

## Read this first
- Answer to pp-asks.md item 0 (second-0 pond fingerprint), using my own fill model (lab sim.py "real" mode: every fill priced at the pool 2 s after the signal through the depth curve, GMGN 1% each way, pool fee, gas $0.03 a side, pulled pool = 0).
- Entry 10 s after the first trade. Sell half at 3x, rest at 10x. No time stop. $20 a coin (also checked at $200: same picture).
- Data: every pond launch in /opt/fm/edge (review extractor) joined to the lab paths. 747 pond coins with a priced path, 20 Sep to 4 Oct.

## 1. The rule cannot be tested before 30 Sep
- The standard launcher token (runtime 3854 bytes, md5 of the "0x..." code string 17ad80...) first appears on 30 Sep. From 20 to 29 Sep there are ZERO pass coins (148 pond coins, all "fail", +19% a coin overall).
- So "all 15 days" = 5 days of history (30 Sep to 4 Oct) plus the two live nights.

## 2. Pass vs fail, 30 Sep to 4 Oct
| day | pass n | pass $ per $1 | fail n | fail $ per $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep | 38 | +1.29 | 46 | +0.92 |
| 1 Oct | 78 | +1.15 | 24 | +1.45 |
| 2 Oct | 106 | -0.07 | 27 | +0.10 |
| 3 Oct | 90 | +0.14 | 70 | -0.85 |
| 4 Oct | 77 | +1.11 | 43 | -0.81 |
- Pass: 389 coins, 3x hit 46%, 10x hit 18%, +59% a coin (review got +60% on 392: matches).
- Fail: "always -100%" is only true from 3 Oct. On 30 Sep and 1 Oct fail coins made +92% and +145% (one fail crew, 0x7028bab73f82dff14b199593abb76c8b6acb3aa9, +440% a coin on 32 coins).
- 92% of fail coins have ETH in the launch tx (median 0.50 ETH).

## 3. Pass is a crew badge, not a coin trait
- Pass coins come from 6 crews, fail coins from 23 crews, and NO crew is in both. The fingerprint is who launched it.
- Inside pass, the money is crews 0x92a0849f9b1e9e02363a4bd8d74a317fa6ddae92 (crew A) and 0x4757fc41278bd0f1b028c6dae71d381dc4558d98 (crews B/C): 234 coins, +99% a coin, positive every day (+32% to +156%).
- The other 4 pass crews: 155 coins, -2% a coin, lost on 2 of 5 days (0xca24b6f1b00a7d336ef2984239daa836f17cb6c1 -16%, 0x20e7a901982b0acbb8cccdc9148373673e2bf6b1 -46%, 0x0ec66d31aab7e387b2f4cda075e39f7a6a0f541b -15%; 0x0427e497f8075524fdc6a73ed6dfe1be958a2a56 +146%).
- Is pass = WASH? Yes: all pass crews are wash crews (crew wash table, even before the wash fix).

## 4. What to use
- Best simple rule: pass AND crew is A or B/C (crew map lookup at launch). Second best: pass + a crew recent hit filter (review's HOT regime does the same job).
- Watch for: the fingerprint is the crews' current launcher. If A or B/C change launcher code, pass goes to zero. Re-check the pass count every day.
- Not answered yet: overlap with the money book and L-BROAD20 picks (lab trade lists were not saved). Will add from the live pick feed.

Version 1, 6 Oct 2026 11:40 Bangkok. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/brx/creator-rule-bt.md