# Pond crews: who funds the 0.01% fee, 10 ETH launches (5 Oct 2026, Bangkok)

## Read this first (for Price Predict)
- Written by the review session. It's read only and changes nothing. These are proposals, with receipts.
- The best launch type (0.01% fee, 10 ETH start, "the pond") is run by about 11 crews. Some crews make far more runners than others, and that holds from week 1 to week 2.
- Data: 1,421 creator wallets of pond and similar launches, 21 Sep to 3 Oct. Each one is funded through a chain of throwaway wallets (each with about 5 to 6 transactions) that pass ETH along through two send-to-many contracts. I traced every chain back up to 20 steps with the paid dRPC key (about 95,000 calls). The chains merge into 11 groups.

## The two send-to-many contracts
- 0x5b8d85ebabf17cf6b67bfa2fe6795623951cd70e (1,154 creators), function 0xe2f16e56
- 0xf341c935599822f1bc1ec29e27606724fbbf6595 (267 creators), function 0xc76bd193
- Each funding transaction comes from a fresh wallet and sends ETH to the next wallet. No events are logged. Calls only show up in traces.

## Crew results (runner = sellable $500k and 10x from the 5 s price, before the pull)
| Crew (group root as of hop 20) | Launches | Runner rate, week 1 | Runner rate, week 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcb7277454416d90e7fe8799cd300744d5797de03 | 281 | 17.4% | 25.6% |
| 0x5bd9c2026df3d994fe1a0f051ac5992dfee85999 | 200 | 14.2% | 21.2% |
| 0x64a20b2a553c12960847d49fc381741a981de231 | 136 | none | 14.0% |
| 0xa4f9fe0ce57df800958dd232cf7c3b1d04d3da7b | 114 | 14.0% | none |
| 0x3178b0f133abd490283eb25e8e92067dd23d7f8a | 79 | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| 0xae3d565892c79fa8fc9243b380283dd419e28ec9 | 320 | 2.8% | 5.1% |
| 0xe403783a3089e640381519509ab12a58f8acee1e | 93 | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| 0x34fc0a8ce042ee0d3a7c4b907c711015804118bd | 77 | 5.2% | none |
| 0xc6d7fc9913ca1cda7da88690ca86f0e444132516 | 51 | none | 6.0% |
| 0xcdf7859d371bf29486a341111daa5c212ff53ded | 48 | 8.3% | none |
| 0x3787b9a8136ddfe10c27e549d89374a7209c182d | 22 | none | 0.0% |

## Out-of-sample test
Crews were graded on week 1 (good = 12%+ runners, bad = under 6%), then checked in week 2:

| Week 2 | Launches | Runner rate | 10x before the pull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Good crews | 212 | 24.5% | 36.3% |
| Bad crews | 340 | 6.2% | 17.4% |
| All | 710 | 13.0% | 24.5% |

## Proposals
1. **Live crew tag at second 0.** Index every call to the two contracts above in real time (trace each block, or watch the sequencer feed). Store who funded whom. When a pond coin launches, walk back from its creator to a known wallet. That's usually 1 to 3 steps, and instant when the graph is already indexed. Tag the coin GOOD, BAD or NEW crew.
2. **Book by crew:** buy good crews at first sight, skip bad crews, and buy new crews small until they have 20+ launches.
3. **Re-grade every crew daily** on honest results (10x before the pull, sellable). Crews stop and new ones start. Two of the 11 only showed up in week 2.
4. **Merge crews.** Some groups are probably the same operator, because 12 chains were still open after 20 steps. The live index will join them.

## Update v2 (5 Oct 2026, ~22:30 BKK): crews outside the pond too
- Same tracing (up to 12 steps) for the creators of all 12,737 non-pond launches. It never merges through exchange or relay wallets (182 high-traffic wallets are excluded). About 390,000 calls.
- **58% of ALL launches come from crews:** 99% of the pond, plus 54% of other launches (6,843, in 255 crews with 10+ launches each).
- New crews appear 2 to 7 a day.
- Outcome below is 10x from the 5 s price before the pull (print-based; real $500k runners are too rare outside the pond to grade).

| Week 2 (graded on week 1) | Launches | 10x before the pull |
|---|---|---|
| Good crews (25%+ in week 1) | 361 | 30.2% |
| All crews | 3,308 | 17.0% |
| Bad crews (5% or less in week 1) | 1,019 | 14.0% |
| No crew | 3,060 | 5.9% |

- The edge holds within launch types: fee 0.05% good crews 34.2% vs 19.6% for all; fee 1% 30.2% good vs 20.0% bad vs 17.5% all; fee 0.25% 45.5% good (n11) vs 2.9% bad.
- Biggest non-pond crews: 0xbe75079fd259a82054caab2ce007cd0c20b177a8 (689 launches), 0x2a73e4a1a8b76dc6b08fa28e2f65d2f316b45172 (417), 0xe31cec4dc6d3646bc09222369c5e8a33324736c2 (277).
- Proposal unchanged, just wider: the live "who funded whom" map should cover every new wallet that launches a coin, not only the two send-to-many contracts. Stop at exchange wallets (nonce over 2,000).

## Data warnings
- Only 13 days, 11 groups, and small numbers for some crews.
- The runner label uses mcap.db sellable caps (median window about 7 min).
- The group root is the last wallet reached, not the true owner.

Version 2, 5 Oct 2026. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/brx/pond-crews.md