# Virality map v1: the domino steps of big winners (6 Oct 2026, 14:10 Bangkok)

## READ THIS FIRST (for Ben, then for Price Predict)
- From: the second window supervisor. Ben's theory: big winners are a chain reaction (early people tell friends, then bigger audiences), and the steps can be seen while they happen.
- Tested in 10 rounds:
  - **Coins:** 163 Robinhood Chain coins that reached $500k (23 later hit $20M, 13 hit $5M to $20M, 127 stalled under $5M), lined up at the moment each first hit $500k.
  - **Wallets:** 10-minute buyers and holders, plus hourly per-wallet buying for 152 of them.
  - **X:** every post with the contract address from 24 h before to 48 h after (twitterapi.io).
- **The theory holds. The winners climb a ladder that the stalled coins fall off.** Share that went on to $20M at each step:

| Step | What it looks like | Went to $20M | Stalled coins that fail here |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0. Hit $500k | all 163 coins | 14% | none |
| 1. Quiet | 1 or fewer X posts with the contract in the 24 h before $500k | 19% (no: 6%) | 46% |
| 2. Fresh crowd | buyers in the first 2 h are new people, not the usual trench wallets (6% or fewer wallets that traded 2+ other coins in 14 days) | 31% (steps 1 and 2) | 72% |
| 3. Crowd keeps coming | new buyers per hour in hours 2 to 4 stay at half or more of hour 1 | 57% (steps 1 to 3) | 66% |
| 4. Still $2M+ at hour 4 | price confirms | 75% (all 4, 8 coins) | 97% |

- What the numbers look like (medians):
  - **Quiet before:** winners averaged 0.2 X posts in the 18 h before $500k. Stalled coins averaged 1.7, mostly small paid shill accounts.
  - **Fresh crowd:** only about 4% of winners' new buyers were repeat trench wallets. Stalled coins: 14% to 28%, rising over time as the same crowd passes the coin around.
  - **Crowd keeps coming:** in the first hour both groups get a burst of buyers. After that, winners keep pulling in buyers, while stalled coins fade:

    | Hours after $500k | Winners get this many times more buyers than stalled coins |
    |---|---|
    | 4 to 12 | 11x |
    | 12 to 24 | 19x |
    | 24 to 48 | 39x |
  - **Big accounts follow, they don't lead:**
    - The first 10k+ follower account posts after the coin passed $1M in 83% of winners, at a median cap of $3.8M.
    - Accounts with 100k+ followers come at about hour 20.
    - On stalled coins, the first 10k+ post comes early, at about $0.5M. That's a shill, not a signal.
- **Money test** (buy at hour 4 after the first $500k; sell half at 2x, trail the rest 50%, stop at −50%, 4% costs, 7 days max):

  | Group | Result per trade | Trades |
  |---|---|---|
  | Steps 1, 2 and 3 all pass | +31% | 13 |
  | Steps 1 and 2 pass | +13% (after 20 Sep: +6%) | 38 |
  | Everything else | −16% | 121 |

  Biggest use today: knowing which coins NOT to hold.
- **Ben's sub-theories:**

  | Sub-theory | Verdict | Receipt |
  |---|---|---|
  | The biggest stay quiet first, then pop | TRUE | almost no X before $500k |
  | It's a network chain reaction | TRUE | fresh wallets keep arriving for days. Stalled coins are traded by the same recycled wallets |
  | Influencers start it | FALSE | they arrive after $1M |
  | Same-size scheduled buys (500, 500, 500) | Bad sign | earlier launch study: uniform buy sizes = bots, 0.1x to 0.4x the normal 10x rate |
  | fomo trending is a step | Not testable on Robinhood | fomo's trending feed only lists Solana coins |
  | Telegram is a step | No data | |
- **Caveats:**
  - The 163 coins come from a tracker that mostly keeps coins still alive in October. Real stalled coins are worse, so these win rates are too high, but the order of the steps should hold.
  - Small numbers at the top of the ladder (8 to 14 coins).
  - The "repeat trench wallet" measure counts only wallets seen in these 152 coins. It has to be rebuilt chain-wide (step B1 below).
- All times Bangkok. Never shorten addresses. Paper only until Ben says go.

## Part A: the domino order (plain words)
1. A coin is launched and stays quiet: no shill wave, no big accounts.
2. Brand new wallets start buying, people who don't trade every other coin. This is the "friend tells friend" step.
3. The new buyers keep coming hour after hour instead of fading after the first hour.
4. The price holds above $2M by hour 4.
5. Bigger X accounts (10k+) jump in after $1M to $4M, then 100k+ accounts around day 1.
6. Holders keep rising for days. The coin goes to $5M, $20M and beyond.

Stalled coins break at step 1 (loud early shill), step 2 (same recycled wallets) or step 3 (buyers fade within 1 to 6 hours).

## Part B: what Price Predict needs to build (Price Predict builds; the review session tests)
1. **Chain-wide wallet score** for every buyer of every coin:
   - number of different coins it bought in the 14 days before;
   - date of its first ever trade on Robinhood Chain.

   Per coin, per 10 minutes, store the share of new buyers that are repeat trench wallets (2+ other coins in 14 days) and the share that are brand new to the chain.
2. **Fair crossing list:** every coin on every venue whose money-tested cap first passes $500k (not only tracker survivors).

   From the crossing, every 10 minutes for 48 h, then hourly to 7 days, store:
   - cap;
   - buyers;
   - new buyers;
   - repeat-wallet share;
   - holders;
   - buy and sell USD;
   - whether the pool can be pulled.
3. **X pull at crossing.** For each crossing coin, search the contract address on twitterapi.io:
   - once for the 24 h before;
   - then every 30 min for 48 h.

   Store per hour: posts, distinct authors, posts by 10k+ and 100k+ accounts. Note when the 200-post page cap is hit.
4. **Paper book `w2_viral`:**
   - Entry: at hour 4 after the first $500k, buy $500 only if steps 1 to 3 pass. Only in pools that can't be pulled.
   - Exit: sell half at 2x, trail the rest 50% from its top, stop at −50%, 7 days max.
   - Log every coin that fails a step, and which step, so the ladder can be rechecked on fair data.
5. **Hold rule for every other book:** if a coin we hold fails step 2 or step 3, sell it. Don't hold it for a bigger run.
6. **Retest** (review session) once items 1 to 3 have about 2 weeks of fair data: rebuild the ladder, check both halves, then go or kill for `w2_viral` (about 20 Oct).

## Part C: what would make this stronger (needs Ben)
- **Optional:** a list of Robinhood call groups on Telegram that Ben trusts or knows. Then the review session can test whether those groups come before or after step 2.
- **Optional:** if fomo ever shows Robinhood coins in trending, a logged-in feed of it.

## Part D: receipts
- Data:
  - http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/hx/rt_flow.csv.gz (10-minute holders, buyers and USD from launch, 212 coins);
  - http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/brx/wnet.csv.gz (hourly per-wallet buying, 200 coins);
  - X via twitterapi.io (contract search, 24 h before to 48 h after the first $500k, up to 200 posts per coin; 13 coins hit the cap).
- Scripts (review session container): /root/w3/r1.py to r10.py, xpull.py.
- Related: second window plan http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/brx/second-window-plan.md (hold-lane rule, lane leader, new lanes).

Version: v1, 6 Oct 2026 14:10 Bangkok. Latest version: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/brx/virality-map.md