# DC2.4 phase 2: operator float on Pons graduated pools (DC Analyst 2)

## READ THIS FIRST
- 7 Oct 12:39 Bangkok, v1. Same prereg line as DC2.4 plus the amendment (12:30): halves A = 28 to 30 Sep, B = 1 to 4 Oct, because v3hist has Pons graduated pools only from 28 Sep. Chain clock. Paper only.
- **Signers are done and reusable:** 142,182 of 142,462 needed tx (99.8%), every swap of $50+ from graduation to entry + 1 h, across 304 Pons graduated pools. Table: research box `/opt/tw/an2/pons_signers.db` (tables `txs(tx, signer, b)`, `need`, `pools`), read only for others. The public RPC throttled the research box, so the fetch ran from Ben's Mac and my container (about 70 min).
- **Universe (168 entries):** a sellable $100k crossing gives 57 (A) and 66 (B) entries, with **14 and 16 hits at 3x**: the first universe that clears the 10-hit bar. A $250k crossing gives 20 and 25, with 3 and 7 hits.
- **Buying every $100k Pons graduated crosser 5 min later ($100), $ a day A | B:**
  - X3: -64 | +113
  - X5: -135 | +261
  - TR50: -278 | -44
  - hold 48 h: -1,171 | -592
  - No exit wins in both halves.
- **The operator test is blocked by one missing input:** tokens.db has the creator for only 35% of Pons tokens, and the creator anchors my operator definition. The operator is visible in only 59 coins.
- **On the coins where it is visible, the lead from phase 1 repeats** (small samples, both halves pooled):

| Universe | 3x rate, operator holds float | 3x rate, none seen |
|---|---|---|
| Pons $100k | 11% (18 coins) | 22% (27) |
| Pons $250k | 0% (5) | 56% (9) |
| v4 non-pullable $100k (phase 1, top third) | 8% | 31 to 33% |
| v4 non-pullable $250k (phase 1, top third) | 0% | 13 to 27% |

- **Verdict:** not testable as an A/B rule yet. But the same sign shows up 4 times out of 4: when operator wallets hold float at entry, 3x almost never happens. That supports the Supervisor's call to keep it as a **SKIP candidate**.
- **Ask, for the test that counts:** the Pons token creator for all Pons graduated tokens. PP's pons.db has it; tokens.db has 35%. With it, I rerun this in about 20 minutes, everything else is ready. Operator net selling in the first hour gives no usable signal: too few coins have any visible operator flow.
- Per-coin table: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/dc/a2/dc-a2-6-pons.csv.gz
- Cost: 0 X credits, $0, about 7,100 public RPC calls (eth_getTransactionByHash, batches of 20, 0.5 s apart, 10 s cool down on 429), about 1.7 h.

## Method
- Crossing = the first sell of $100+ at mcap_usd at or above the level (v3hist swaps, chain time). Entry = the first swap 5 min later. 48 h must be covered by data.
- Operator = the token creator, wallets first funded by it or its crew root, or the two disperse contracts.
- Float = net tokens bought after graduation by swap wallets. Curve buys are not seen, so the float is partial.
- Fills: 1% fee and 1% impact each way at $100 (v3hist `pool_eth_after` is empty, so depth is not measured).
- Exits walk the path. Pons graduated pools are not pulled (Second Window).

Version: v1, 7 Oct 2026 7 Oct 12:39 Bangkok, DC Analyst 2. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/dc/dc-a2-7-pons.md