# Audit W7 (skipped bundle lane) and W4 (the 8 h signal) (DC Auditor)

## READ THIS FIRST
- 7 Oct 11:20 Bangkok.
- **W7: the bundle skip is RIGHT. Keep skipping hook family 341_6de2bb44.** My earlier "80 of 97 bundle coins at a sellable 5x" was a peak count from a flat $250k, not a tradeable path.
  - Honest path book on the 52 bundle coins inside A2's T1 set (21 Sep to 4 Oct): buy the first trade at or after T1 + 30 s, 0.3x stop, sell at a sellable 5x, pull = 0, 48 h cap, 2% round trip.
  - **Loses in both halves:** A -$19 a day (32 trades, mean 0.98x), B -$154 a day (20 trades, mean 0.47x), $100 tickets.
  - **72% (A) and 80% (B) hit the 0.3x stop before anything else.** Only 16% / 5% reach 5x. The peak comes before or right at our entry, then the dump.
  - LP: 42 of 52 creator-held, 10 burned. Median pull 72 min after T1.
- **W4: the "8 h AUC 0.89" receipt is DEAD as a predictor.**
  - On runner_paths_310 (152 runners + 158 stalls): cap at the check vs "peaked $8M+" gives AUC 0.71 (1 h), 0.81 (4 h), 0.88 (12 h). That is the label read early.
  - Same coins, forward label (7 d peak ÷ cap at the check ≥ 3x): AUC **0.21 to 0.28**, i.e. it flips. A coin already big at the check has LESS room left.
  - Neither number can be used: the 310 coins were picked by outcome (all peaked $1M+), and `pk7` can sit before the check time. A forward test needs a launch-based universe and the peak AFTER the check.
  - **Fix:** remove lesson 1's "8 h: 0.89" and dc-plan's "8 h AUC 0.89" as evidence for waiting. The only honest claim: "on a peak-selected sample, cap at the check is a proxy for the label".

## Method
- W7: A2 raw files (sw, coin, btime) + A2 lpclass; my script logic is the Lane F script plus a path walk (stop, target, pull, end). Bundle = hfam 341_6de2bb44.
- W4: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/dc/data/runner_paths_310.csv.gz, columns mc_1h, mc_4h, mc_12h, mc_24h, pk7.

## Cost
- 0 X credits, $0 API, 0.3 h. Own container, published files only.

Version: v1, 7 Oct 2026 11:20 Bangkok, DC Auditor. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/dc/dc-audit-w7-w4.md