{"version": "rule4.1", "date": "2026-10-03", "tested": "14 point in time CoinMarketCap baskets (dead coins counted), Jan 2023 to Sep 2026, 1% round trip cost; 2023 to 2024 vs 2025 to 2026 split", "slow": {"all": {"n": 109, "mean": 9.4, "med": 4.2, "win": 61, "pf": 3.2}, "A": {"n": 54, "mean": 15.9, "med": 4.3, "win": 61, "pf": 4.29}, "B": {"n": 55, "mean": 3.1, "med": 4.1, "win": 62, "pf": 1.83}}, "fast": {"all": {"n": 204, "mean": 5.7, "med": 1.2, "win": 54, "pf": 2.69}, "A": {"n": 97, "mean": 8.6, "med": 0.1, "win": 51, "pf": 3.14}, "B": {"n": 107, "mean": 3.0, "med": 1.2, "win": 58, "pf": 2.1}}, "slow_weekly": {"all": 3.4, "B": 1.49}, "baseline_v3": {"all": {"n": 118, "pf": 2.65, "mean": 8.1}, "A": {"pf": 3.76}, "B": {"pf": 1.39}, "weekly_B": 0.97}, "rotation": {"47 base rule, 3 strongest 30d": {"total": 281, "worst": -40, "money_in": 25, "by_year": {"2023": 75, "2024": 127, "2025": -13, "2026": 10}}, "48 new rule (35), 3 strongest 30d": {"total": 389, "worst": -37, "money_in": 24, 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["base_memes", "2026-08-19", "2026-08-21", "2026-08-27", 14.1], ["base_ai", "2025-04-24", null, "2025-05-03", 17.9], ["base_ai", "2025-05-08", "2025-05-10", "2025-05-15", 3.4], ["base_ai", "2025-07-13", null, "2025-07-22", 6.4], ["base_ai", "2025-08-12", null, "2025-08-14", -9.6], ["base_ai", "2025-09-13", null, "2025-09-16", -6.7], ["base_ai", "2026-04-16", null, "2026-04-19", -4.8], ["base_ai", "2026-05-04", "2026-05-05", "2026-05-13", 6.9], ["base_ai", "2026-08-19", "2026-08-21", "2026-08-25", 3.7], ["base_ai", "2026-09-05", null, "2026-09-10", -4.4], ["base_ai", "2026-09-19", "2026-09-21", "2026-09-30", 7.3], ["base_defi", "2025-04-24", null, "2025-05-06", -0.4], ["base_defi", "2025-05-07", null, "2025-05-15", 5.7], ["base_defi", "2025-07-11", null, "2025-07-23", 3.3], ["base_defi", "2025-08-12", "2025-08-13", "2025-08-18", -0.8], ["base_defi", "2025-09-20", "2025-09-24", "2025-09-25", 0.1], ["base_defi", "2026-04-16", null, "2026-04-19", -9.5], ["base_defi", "2026-05-06", null, "2026-05-13", 2.1], ["base_defi", "2026-08-20", null, "2026-08-26", -0.3], ["base_defi", "2026-09-04", "2026-09-06", "2026-09-10", 3.9], ["ton_all", "2024-05-27", null, "2024-06-08", 21.5], ["ton_all", "2024-11-09", null, "2024-11-17", 23.3], ["ton_all", "2024-12-07", null, "2024-12-09", -17.4], ["ton_all", "2025-04-25", null, "2025-05-03", -1.6], ["ton_all", "2025-05-09", null, "2025-05-15", 2.8], ["ton_all", "2025-07-11", null, "2025-07-23", 9.2], ["ton_all", "2025-09-18", null, "2025-09-22", -19.1], ["ton_all", "2026-05-01", "2026-05-05", "2026-05-13", 51.0], ["ton_all", "2026-08-20", null, "2026-08-28", 0.7], ["ton_all", "2026-09-07", null, "2026-09-08", -8.3], ["ton_all", "2026-09-09", null, "2026-09-15", -12.7], ["eth_memes", "2023-01-21", "2023-01-29", "2023-02-09", 13.5], ["eth_memes", "2023-04-16", null, "2023-04-19", -9.1], ["eth_memes", "2023-07-17", null, "2023-07-25", -3.6], ["eth_memes", "2023-07-26", null, "2023-08-16", 10.0], ["eth_memes", "2023-10-25", "2023-10-26", "2023-11-07", 3.6], ["eth_memes", "2023-11-09", null, "2023-11-14", -5.8], ["eth_memes", "2023-11-15", null, "2023-11-21", -12.4], ["eth_memes", "2023-12-02", "2023-12-03", "2023-12-19", 14.7], ["eth_memes", "2024-02-18", "2024-02-27", "2024-03-15", 127.2], ["eth_memes", "2024-05-15", "2024-05-21", "2024-06-02", 32.6], ["eth_memes", "2024-07-19", null, "2024-07-24", -5.3], ["eth_memes", "2024-09-23", null, "2024-10-01", 5.0], ["eth_memes", "2024-10-06", "2024-10-08", "2024-10-23", 15.2], ["eth_memes", "2024-11-07", "2024-11-11", "2024-11-19", 15.3], ["eth_memes", "2024-11-29", null, "2024-12-02", -6.5], ["eth_memes", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-07", "2024-12-09", -2.0], ["eth_memes", "2025-04-25", null, "2025-05-03", -6.7], ["eth_memes", "2025-05-08", "2025-05-09", "2025-05-15", 7.8], ["eth_memes", "2025-07-11", "2025-07-13", "2025-07-24", 8.7], ["eth_memes", "2025-08-13", null, "2025-08-14", -12.3], ["eth_memes", "2025-09-13", null, "2025-09-15", -10.4], ["eth_memes", "2026-04-16", null, "2026-04-29", -3.8], ["eth_memes", "2026-05-01", "2026-05-10", "2026-05-13", 3.5], ["eth_memes", "2026-08-20", "2026-08-21", "2026-08-30", 7.6], ["eth_memes", "2026-09-18", "2026-09-21", "2026-09-29", 3.3], ["eth_ai", "2024-03-13", null, "2024-03-16", -22.5], ["eth_ai", "2024-05-20", "2024-05-23", "2024-06-07", 33.8], ["eth_ai", "2024-07-19", null, "2024-07-24", -4.5], ["eth_ai", "2024-09-26", null, "2024-10-01", -11.1], ["eth_ai", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-12", "2024-10-17", 0.1], ["eth_ai", "2024-10-30", null, "2024-11-02", -14.0], ["eth_ai", "2024-11-07", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-20", 18.4], ["eth_ai", "2024-12-07", null, "2024-12-09", -11.5], ["eth_ai", "2024-12-11", "2024-12-12", "2024-12-17", -2.1], ["eth_ai", "2025-04-25", null, "2025-04-30", -5.5], ["eth_ai", "2025-05-08", "2025-05-10", "2025-05-17", 15.5], ["eth_ai", "2025-07-14", "2025-07-16", "2025-07-22", 6.6], ["eth_ai", "2025-08-12", "2025-08-13", "2025-08-18", -3.4], ["eth_ai", "2026-04-16", null, "2026-04-27", 12.3], ["eth_ai", "2026-05-01", null, "2026-05-12", -1.0], ["eth_ai", "2026-08-19", "2026-08-20", "2026-08-30", 9.9], ["eth_ai", "2026-09-18", null, "2026-09-29", -0.4], ["bnb_memes", "2023-01-11", "2023-01-16", "2023-02-09", 39.2], ["bnb_memes", "2023-07-18", "2023-07-19", "2023-07-24", 9.7], ["bnb_memes", "2023-10-28", "2023-10-29", "2023-11-16", 40.6], ["bnb_memes", "2023-11-29", "2023-11-30", "2023-12-30", 31.6], ["bnb_memes", "2024-01-13", null, "2024-01-22", -7.8], ["bnb_memes", "2024-02-19", "2024-02-20", "2024-03-16", 90.5], ["bnb_memes", "2024-05-15", "2024-05-25", "2024-06-11", 39.4], ["bnb_memes", "2024-07-20", null, "2024-07-24", -13.8], ["bnb_memes", "2024-09-26", null, "2024-10-01", -7.9], ["bnb_memes", "2024-10-14", null, "2024-10-16", -7.3], ["bnb_memes", "2024-11-10", null, "2024-11-20", 10.9], ["bnb_memes", "2024-11-23", null, "2024-11-26", -7.4], ["bnb_memes", "2024-11-29", "2024-11-30", "2024-12-09", -0.4], ["bnb_memes", "2025-04-26", null, "2025-04-27", -5.0], ["bnb_memes", "2025-05-09", "2025-05-12", "2025-05-15", 2.3], ["bnb_memes", "2025-05-22", null, "2025-05-30", -18.4], ["bnb_memes", "2025-07-21", null, "2025-07-24", -6.0], ["bnb_memes", "2025-08-12", null, "2025-08-14", -6.0], ["bnb_memes", "2025-08-20", null, "2025-08-24", -6.2], ["bnb_memes", "2025-09-13", "2025-09-17", "2025-09-22", 1.2], ["bnb_memes", "2026-04-16", "2026-05-01", "2026-05-14", 18.6], ["bnb_memes", "2026-08-21", "2026-09-03", "2026-09-08", 26.5], ["bnb_memes", "2026-09-18", "2026-09-22", "2026-09-24", 6.3], ["bnb_ai", "2025-07-11", null, "2025-07-25", 1.2], ["bnb_ai", "2025-07-29", "2025-07-30", "2025-08-14", 9.9], ["bnb_ai", "2025-09-16", "2025-09-17", "2025-09-19", -2.0], ["bnb_ai", "2026-04-16", "2026-05-01", "2026-05-14", 55.2], ["bnb_ai", "2026-09-06", null, "2026-09-16", 6.7], ["majors", "2023-01-11", "2023-01-14", "2023-02-06", 18.9], ["majors", "2023-02-07", null, "2023-02-09", -11.7], ["majors", "2023-02-18", null, "2023-02-24", -2.1], ["majors", "2023-03-17", null, "2023-03-22", -5.3], ["majors", "2023-04-14", "2023-04-15", "2023-04-19", -3.5], ["majors", "2023-04-30", null, "2023-05-05", -4.0], ["majors", "2023-06-21", null, "2023-06-26", -3.5], ["majors", "2023-07-03", null, "2023-07-05", -3.8], ["majors", "2023-07-13", null, "2023-07-20", -3.0], ["majors", "2023-08-14", null, "2023-08-15", -3.5], ["majors", "2023-10-23", "2023-11-10", "2023-11-21", 24.8], ["majors", "2023-12-02", "2023-12-05", "2023-12-17", 4.7], ["majors", "2023-12-20", "2023-12-21", "2023-12-31", 4.5], ["majors", "2024-01-01", null, "2024-01-03", -9.8], ["majors", "2024-02-28", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-05", 1.6], ["majors", "2024-03-07", "2024-03-08", "2024-04-02", 18.4], ["majors", "2024-05-15", null, "2024-05-17", -7.8], ["majors", "2024-05-18", "2024-05-19", "2024-05-29", 4.7], ["majors", "2024-07-19", null, "2024-07-24", -3.4], ["majors", "2024-09-23", null, "2024-10-01", -2.9], ["majors", "2024-10-11", null, "2024-10-17", 1.4], ["majors", "2024-10-20", null, "2024-10-23", -4.6], ["majors", "2024-11-06", "2024-11-07", "2024-12-09", 22.3], ["majors", "2025-04-23", null, "2025-04-29", 0.5], ["majors", "2025-05-08", "2025-05-09", "2025-05-15", 2.1], ["majors", "2025-07-11", "2025-07-12", "2025-07-31", 4.5], ["majors", "2025-08-09", "2025-08-12", "2025-08-18", 1.1], ["majors", "2025-09-17", null, "2025-09-22", -5.7], ["majors", "2026-04-16", null, "2026-04-19", -5.9], ["majors", "2026-05-04", "2026-05-05", "2026-05-13", 6.1], ["majors", "2026-08-19", "2026-08-23", "2026-08-30", 8.8], ["majors", "2026-09-05", null, "2026-09-10", -4.8]], "iterations2": [[71, "v4 baseline (half at HOT)", "109 trades, $ per $1 lost all 3.2 / 2023-24 4.29 / 2025-26 1.83, weekly 2025-26 1.49"], [72, "extended = 25% above 20d avg, half", "109 trades, $ per $1 lost all 2.81 / 2023-24 4.37 / 2025-26 1.16, weekly 2025-26 1.11"], [73, "extended = 40% above 20d avg, half", "109 trades, $ per $1 lost all 3.21 / 2023-24 4.96 / 2025-26 1.17, weekly 2025-26 1.1"], [74, "extended = 60% above 20d avg, half", "109 trades, $ per $1 lost all 3.21 / 2023-24 5.24 / 2025-26 0.88, weekly 2025-26 0.68"], [75, "extended = +50% in 30 days, half", "109 trades, $ per $1 lost all 2.81 / 2023-24 4.09 / 2025-26 1.18, weekly 2025-26 0.73"], [76, "extended = +100% in 30 days, half", "109 trades, $ per $1 lost all 3.07 / 2023-24 4.65 / 2025-26 1.15, weekly 2025-26 1.04"], [77, "extended = RSI 14 >= 80, half", "109 trades, $ per $1 lost all 3.06 / 2023-24 4.78 / 2025-26 1.15, weekly 2025-26 1.22"], [78, "extended = RSI 14 >= 85, half", "109 trades, $ per $1 lost all 3.0 / 2023-24 4.88 / 2025-26 0.93, weekly 2025-26 0.71"], [79, "extended = +30% from entry, half", "109 trades, $ per $1 lost all 3.06 / 2023-24 4.2 / 2025-26 1.63, weekly 2025-26 1.44"], [80, "extended = +50% from entry, half", "109 trades, $ per $1 lost all 3.11 / 2023-24 4.81 / 2025-26 1.16, weekly 2025-26 1.09"], [81, "extended = day 8 in trade, half", "109 trades, $ per $1 lost all 3.59 / 2023-24 5.38 / 2025-26 1.3, weekly 2025-26 0.93"], [82, "HOT but sell ALL", "257 trades, $ per $1 lost all 1.68 / 2023-24 1.82 / 2025-26 1.52, weekly 2025-26 1.53"], [83, "RSI>=80 sell ALL", "162 trades, $ per $1 lost all 2.33 / 2023-24 2.99 / 2025-26 1.45, weekly 2025-26 1.44"], [84, "HOT half, then RSI>=85 sell rest", "121 trades, $ per $1 lost all 2.6 / 2023-24 3.04 / 2025-26 1.99, weekly 2025-26 2.09"], [85, "HOT half, then +100% 30d sell rest", "131 trades, $ per $1 lost all 2.22 / 2023-24 2.29 / 2025-26 2.09, weekly 2025-26 1.32"], [86, "no extended rule at all", "109 trades, $ per $1 lost all 3.36 / 2023-24 5.52 / 2025-26 0.88, weekly 2025-26 0.68"], [87, "HOT half, exit 10d low", "131 trades, $ per $1 lost all 3.03 / 2023-24 4.0 / 2025-26 1.85, weekly 2025-26 0.87"], [88, "RSI>=80 half + 20d low exit", "101 trades, $ per $1 lost all 2.68 / 2023-24 4.15 / 2025-26 0.98, weekly 2025-26 1.03"], [89, "Risk off and still making new lows = WAITING FOR BOTTOM", "turned bullish within 14 days: 2023-24 18%, 2025-26 11%; next 14 days median +0.0% / -3.2%"], [90, "Risk off, no new low for 5+ days = BASING", "turned bullish within 14 days: 2023-24 35%, 2025-26 30%; next 14 days median +0.5% / -3.4%"], [91, "Risk off, within 5% of turning = ALMOST BULLISH", "turned bullish within 14 days: 2023-24 48%, 2025-26 72%; next 14 days median +0.0% / +1.5%"], [92, "BUY signals with a bigger 30 day move did better", "2023-24 $4.83 vs $3.72 per $1; 2025-26 $2.37 vs $1.43"], [93, "bigger 7 day move did better", "$6.00 vs $3.13; $2.35 vs $1.19"], [94, "rising basket volume did better", "$6.43 vs $3.22; $2.60 vs $1.42"], [95, "BTC up more in the past week", "mixed: worse 2023-24, better 2025-26"], [96, "further above the 90 day low did better", "$4.44 vs $4.13; $2.04 vs $1.53"], [97, "closer to the 90 day high", "mixed"], [98, "higher RSI at the BUY did better", "$6.47 vs $1.61; $2.28 vs $1.56"], [99, "meme baskets did better than non memes", "$5.28 vs $3.56; $2.05 vs $1.69"], [100, "BUY days only, 3 slots, rank 30d move (v4)", "+364% total, worst drop -24%, money in 21%, by year {'2023': 40, '2024': 167, '2025': 0, '2026': 25}"], [101, "rank by 7 day move", "+362% total, worst drop -26%, money in 21%, by year {'2023': 40, '2024': 167, '2025': -2, '2026': 26}"], [102, "rank by rising volume", "+326% total, worst drop -24%, money in 22%, by year {'2023': 40, '2024': 167, '2025': 4, '2026': 10}"], [103, "rank by RSI", "+305% total, worst drop -24%, money in 21%, by year {'2023': 40, '2024': 127, '2025': 4, '2026': 23}"], [104, "rank by 7d move + volume", "+385% total, worst drop -24%, money in 22%, by year {'2023': 40, '2024': 167, '2025': 6, '2026': 23}"], [105, "rank 7d move, swap out an extended basket for a fresh BUY", "+527% total, worst drop -31%, money in 23%, by year {'2023': 104, '2024': 111, '2025': 4, '2026': 40}"], [106, "rank 30d, swap extended for fresh BUY", "+568% total, worst drop -31%, money in 23%, by year {'2023': 96, '2024': 146, '2025': 1, '2026': 37}"], [107, "rank 7d move, 2 slots", "+236% total, worst drop -34%, money in 20%, by year {'2023': 26, '2024': 114, '2025': -3, '2026': 28}"], [108, "rank 7d move, 4 slots", "+493% total, worst drop -23%, money in 20%, by year {'2023': 63, '2024': 181, '2025': 6, '2026': 21}"], [109, "rank 7d move + swap, 2 slots", "+677% total, worst drop -40%, money in 24%, by year {'2023': 148, '2024': 115, '2025': -3, '2026': 50}"], [110, "same as 105 but only from 2025", "+46% total, worst drop -31%, money in 17%, by year {'2025': 4, '2026': 40}"], [111, "same as 100 but only from 2025", "+31% total, worst drop -24%, money in 16%, by year {'2025': 5, '2026': 25}"], [112, "live CoinMarketCap baskets vs independent rebuild from daily snapshots", "9 of 9 match (daily return correlation 0.996 to 1.000)"], [113, "majors basket (OKX) vs CoinMarketCap natives", "FAIL: correlation 0.01, the OKX closes were filed one day late"], [114, "BTC: CoinMarketCap vs OKX closes", "FAIL same cause: matched to 0.05% only when OKX is keyed by its candle open day"], [115, "the provisional close", "BUG: it was taking live prices at about 07:30 Bangkok for TODAY's label, but CoinMarketCap's label D is the close at the END of day D; fixed to fill yesterday's label"], [116, "Robinhood index daily labels", "BUG: filed one day late (+1); fixed; rebuilt vs official correlation -0.27 before, +0.35 after"], [117, "Ink, Arc, Bankr, o1 4 hour baskets daily labels", "same one day fix"], [118, "weekly and monthly closes for CoinMarketCap baskets", "BUG: each candle ended one day early; fixed; 7 of 68 labels changed"], [119, "SOL/BTC froth check", "same one day shift; after fix correlation 0.999"], [120, "after the fix: majors 0.94, BTC 0.9997, SOL/BTC 0.999", "PASS"], [121, "research backtests", "unaffected: they used CoinMarketCap data on one clock"], [122, "stablecoin inflow 7 days vs basket returns (Solana, Base, TON 2024-26)", "no consistent edge; mixed by chain and period"], [123, "stablecoin inflow 30 days", "no consistent edge"], [124, "DEX volume rising vs falling", "Solana 2024-25 rising better, 2025-26 reversed: no edge"], [125, "closes labels after the date fix", "7 of 68 changed"], [126, "page groups equal the feed groups", "PASS"], [127, "card words equal the feed words", "PASS"], [128, "no risk off card shown green", "PASS"], [129, "Robinhood section words equal the Baskets section", "PASS (was contradicting: HOLD vs WAIT, MONEY COMING IN vs MONEY LEAVING)"], [130, "every basket has a read", "PASS"]], "rotation_swap": {"100": {"name": "BUY days only, 3 slots, rank 30d move (v4)", "total": 364, "worst": -24, "money_in": 21, "by_year": {"2023": 40, "2024": 167, "2025": 0, "2026": 25}}, "101": {"name": "rank by 7 day move", "total": 362, "worst": -26, "money_in": 21, "by_year": {"2023": 40, "2024": 167, "2025": -2, "2026": 26}}, "102": {"name": "rank by rising volume", "total": 326, "worst": -24, "money_in": 22, "by_year": {"2023": 40, "2024": 167, "2025": 4, "2026": 10}}, "103": {"name": "rank by RSI", "total": 305, "worst": -24, "money_in": 21, "by_year": {"2023": 40, "2024": 127, "2025": 4, "2026": 23}}, "104": {"name": "rank by 7d move + volume", "total": 385, "worst": -24, "money_in": 22, "by_year": {"2023": 40, "2024": 167, "2025": 6, "2026": 23}}, "105": {"name": "rank 7d move, swap out an extended basket for a fresh BUY", "total": 527, "worst": -31, "money_in": 23, "by_year": {"2023": 104, "2024": 111, "2025": 4, "2026": 40}}, "106": {"name": "rank 30d, swap extended for fresh BUY", "total": 568, "worst": -31, "money_in": 23, "by_year": {"2023": 96, "2024": 146, "2025": 1, "2026": 37}}, "107": {"name": "rank 7d move, 2 slots", "total": 236, "worst": -34, "money_in": 20, "by_year": {"2023": 26, "2024": 114, "2025": -3, "2026": 28}}, "108": {"name": "rank 7d move, 4 slots", "total": 493, "worst": -23, "money_in": 20, "by_year": {"2023": 63, "2024": 181, "2025": 6, "2026": 21}}, "109": {"name": "rank 7d move + swap, 2 slots", "total": 677, "worst": -40, "money_in": 24, "by_year": {"2023": 148, "2024": 115, "2025": -3, "2026": 50}}, "110": {"name": "same as 105 but only from 2025", "total": 46, "worst": -31, "money_in": 17, "by_year": {"2025": 4, "2026": 40}}, "111": {"name": "same as 100 but only from 2025", "total": 31, "worst": -24, "money_in": 16, "by_year": {"2025": 5, "2026": 25}}}}