
Bull 1 (BTC low Mar 2020 to top 8 Nov 2021; true low Dec 2018, data from Oct 2019)
  baskets 14 | runs 122 = 8.7 per basket | run length median 43 days (middle half 14 to 59), longest 173 | gain median +87%
  pullback after each run: median -36% over 17 days (middle half -27% to -53%) | back above the top: median 57 days | never back above: 19 of 122
  each basket's own top of the bull: 2021-04, 2021-04, 2021-04, 2021-05, 2021-05, 2021-05, 2021-05, 2021-05, 2021-05, 2021-11, 2021-11, 2021-11, 2021-11, 2021-11

Bear 1 (8 Nov 2021 to BTC low 21 Nov 2022; data to Sep 2022)
  baskets 14 | runs 44 = 3.1 per basket | run length median 35 days (middle half 21 to 55), longest 65 | gain median +54%
  pullback after each run: median -60% over 70 days (middle half -42% to -74%) | back above the top: median 41.0 days | never back above: 40 of 44

Bull 2 (BTC low 21 Nov 2022 to top 6 Oct 2025; basket data from Jan 2023)
  baskets 13 | runs 110 = 8.5 per basket | run length median 18 days (middle half 8 to 37), longest 132 | gain median +60%
  pullback after each run: median -42% over 28 days (middle half -31% to -56%) | back above the top: median 51 days | never back above: 39 of 110
  each basket's own top of the bull: 2024-06, 2024-06, 2024-06, 2024-11, 2024-11, 2024-12, 2024-12, 2024-12, 2025-01, 2025-01, 2025-01, 2025-07, 2025-10

Bear 2 so far (6 Oct 2025 to Sep 2026)
  baskets 13 | runs 36 = 2.8 per basket | run length median 28 days (middle half 9 to 41), longest 109 | gain median +54%
  pullback after each run: median -41% over 35 days (middle half -32% to -49%) | back above the top: median 68 days | never back above: 19 of 36
