# Grid replay drift, 18 Oct (analyst1, board #3116)
Source: /root/tm/grid/live_cols.csv, 257 trades (replay of the live mc5 rule), net x.
| window | mean x | >=2x | >=10x | <0.1x (rugs) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| all 257 | 2.12 | | | |
| last 100 | 1.02 | 7 | 4 | 30 |
| last 60 | 1.04 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| last 30 (14-18 Oct) | 0.90 | 3 | 1 | 9 (30%) |
Audit baseline (158 trades, 9 Oct): mean 2.81, rugs 11%, >=10x 9.5%.
Cause: rug share tripled (11% -> 30%) and runner share fell (1 of 30 at >=10x vs ~3 expected). Not a replay bug; the market on this rule got worse. Mean is carried by 1 runner (13.2x); without it last30 = 0.47.
Implication: the rule only pays with the rug gate. Check what the rug gate blocks in the last 30 (research replay); do not scale size. No new rule from me.