# Early hunters: which runners of the last 30 days were catchable early (analyst1, 10 Oct 2026, #380)

Hunt: entry in first seconds to ~2 min after launch, target tier $1M-$3M and up.
Data: e1-runners.csv (ok-flagged, peak >= $1M, created 7 Sep-7 Oct): 1215 runners (v2 170, v3 196, v4 849). Tape detail only for pools created >= 21 Sep (r6weth/r6nat/r6tape): 523 runners, 329 with a usable first-60s tape (v3 152 of 152, v2 27 of 27, v4 150 of 344: the rest are non-WETH/native quote pools, mostly USDG, not in the tapes). Non-runner baseline = random sample of 1500 pools per tape, scaled to population.

## 1. How fast do runners get there (30 days, all 1215)
| venue | n | 100k within 60 s | 100k within 5 min | 1M within 5 min | 1M within 30 min | 1M median age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v3 | 196 | 42% | 56% | 14% | 29% | 62 min |
| v4 | 849 | 18% | 35% | 10% | 37% | 57 min |
| v2 | 170 | 6% | 14% | 2% | 27% | 50 min |
Peak tiers (1-3M / 3-5M / 5-10M / 10-20M / 20M+): v2 69/29/39/18/15, v3 104/22/30/14/26, v4 459/119/88/50/133.
=> A "ride to $1M in the first minute" hunter has a tiny universe (v3 11% of runners, v4 3%, v2 1% hit $1M inside 60 s). Most runners (60-90%) reach $1M only after 30+ min; the first 60 s is where you can SEE them, not where they finish.

## 2. v3 (WETH fee-100 launches) = the catchable early set
152 runners since 21 Sep. First 60 s after the first swap, runners vs non-runners (medians):
- swaps 25 vs 7, distinct recipients 22 vs 9, WETH bought 12.7 vs 0.11 (!), price already 1.5x+ vs 1.09 (biased by launch buy).
- 79% of runners are below $1M at 60 s (median ~$440k, 1-3M-tier runners ~$360k); peak/cap-at-60s median 8.7, p25 3.6 (tier 20M+: 44x).
- Filter in-sample (cap60 < 1.5M, WETH bought in 60 s >= 10, price mult >= 5): 87 of 152 runners (57%), ~81 non-runner pools pass (precision ~52% of pools, lift vs base rate 3%: ~17x), 41 reached >= 3M, 21 reached >= 10M. Median upside from entry at 60 s = 5.8x (p25 3.5x).
- Tighter cap60 < 800k same buy60>=10: 68 runners, precision 46%, peak/entry median 6.6x, 31 >= 3M, 16 >= 10M.
- buy60 >= 20 is too late/too big (6 runners). The signal is flow, not count: swap count alone gives 4-6% pool precision.
- Caveats: thresholds chosen in-sample, no OOS split yet; non-runner sample is 433 pools (FP counts +-30%); buy60 includes the deployer's launch buy (first swap at t=0 in 75% of runners), so some "flow" is dev self-buy; sellability for outsiders not checked here; cap60 uses supply 1e9 and ETH 2600.

## 3. v4 (hooked + no-hook, WETH/native): visible but not early
- 89% of tape-covered v4 runners are tiny at 60 s (price-based cap60 unreliable on v4, treat as "small"); 35% hit 100k within 5 min, only 10% hit $1M within 5 min. Most v4 runners run 30-120 min after launch: better matched by the 5-30 min hunter (entry $100-400k), not the first-seconds one.
- First 60 s: swaps 11 vs 2, WETH bought 2.2 vs 0.2. Screens on buy60 >= 1 catch 72% of v4 runners but pool precision stays 4-6% (barely above the 3-4% base). distinct-sender counts are useless on v4 (router sender). First swap arrives median 15 s after pool creation for runners (0.4 s non-runners).
- No separating rule found in the first minute for v4. Consistent with the earlier verdict (no-hook baseline ~1.0).

## 4. v2: nothing early
Only 1% of v2 runners hit $1M within 5 min, 6% hit 100k in 60 s. 27 tape-covered runners show 12 swaps/60 s vs 1; ratio quoted mult>=3 gives 12/27 runners but pool counts too small/ my v2 cap numbers are unit-broken (reserve decimals); do not rely.

## Misses vs hunts (why we miss)
- v3 fee-100 early runners (about 1 per 10 h; 152 in 19 days): seen at 60 s but need a rule on flow (WETH bought in 60 s) -> candidate below.
- v4 USDG/SUSD quote pools (205 of 344 v4 runners since 21 Sep, 60%) are NOT in our tapes at all -> blind spot. Ask ppdata for USDG/SUSD-quote v4 tape or a re-price.

## Proposed next (for testmgr/ppdata)
1. v3 FLOW60 paper test: v3 WETH fee-100 launch; at first swap +60 s enter if WETH bought in 60 s >= 10 and price >= 5x first print and cap < 1.5M (est). Exit ladder to 5x/10x. Hunt: 1M-3M+ (target 87/152, 41 at >=3M). Needs OOS on 8-10 Oct pools and dev-buy vs outsider split, plus sell check. I post to testmgr after OOS (below).
2. ppdata: USDG/SUSD-quote v4 launches tape (60% of v4 runners unseen).
Script: /opt/crew/work/analyst1/a1_early.py a1_early3.py (research-box).