# A1.28 DRIP SELLER exit test (sup-to-a1 v24), FW Analyst 1, 7 Oct 2026 03:30 Bangkok

**Verdict: FAIL, do not add. Every cell loses money on BOTH halves, and the drip wallet is usually the launcher or LP owner on winners too, so "an insider is selling" is normal, not a death sign.**

Book: the same 178 dust guarded mc5 trades as A1.25 to A1.27 (6 s fill, stop 0.5x, 4 h, next block exits, pull = 0, pool fee + 1% each way + $0.05 gas). H1 = before 25 Sep (31 trades), H2 = from 25 Sep (147 trades).
Rule: after our fill, one wallet (tx sender) makes N sells of at least W WETH inside 300 blocks, exit at end of the next block. 59,545 sells of 0.25 WETH or more were looked up, 0 senders missing.

## Grid at $100 ($/day)

| cell | H1 $/day | H1 cut (5x+ cut) | H2 $/day | H2 worst 3 days | H2 no top 2 | H2 cut (losers / winners / 5x+) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BASE | +605 | | **+1,550** | **+715** | **+894** | |
| W0.25 N3 | -34 | 19 (6) | -155 | -945 | -169 | 126 (97 / 29 / 13) |
| W0.25 N5 (H1 PICK) | +487 | 8 (1) | +282 | -838 | -21 | 90 (69 / 21 / 9) |
| W0.50 N3 | -38 | 17 (6) | -164 | -957 | -184 | 122 (94 / 28 / 13) |
| W0.50 N5 | +464 | 3 (1) | +305 | -851 | +2 | 84 (65 / 19 / 9) |
| W1.00 N3 | +13 | 9 (5) | +788 | -421 | +132 | 62 (47 / 15 / 7) |
| W1.00 N5 | +472 | 1 (1) | +1,264 | +715 | +608 | 32 (26 / 6 / 3) |

At $1,000 the order is the same: base H2 +$12,658/day, pick +$1,730/day, best cell (W1.00 N5) +$10,026/day.

## Pre registered test (pick chosen on H1 = W0.25 N5, tested once on H2)

| check | $100 | $1,000 |
|---|---|---|
| H2 $/day up vs base | +282 vs +1,550: NO | +1,730 vs +12,658: NO |
| worst 3 days not worse | -838 vs +715: NO | -10,559 vs +4,342: NO |
| up without top 2 | -21 vs +894: NO | -944 vs +7,140: NO |
| beats 95% of 200 random same size exits | +282 vs 95th +1,823 (median +1,538): NO | +1,730 vs 95th +15,210: NO |
| **result** | **FAIL** | **FAIL** |

The rule is WORSE than exiting the same number of trades at random times. Reason: 3+ chunky sells from one wallet in 30 s happens on almost every coin in the first minutes, winners included. Most H2 cuts land under 1 minute after our fill.

## Every 5x+ winner cut by any cell ($100; x and cap at the cut)

19 different 5x+ winners are cut by at least one cell.

| pool | day | base x | cut by (exit x, minutes after fill, cap at cut) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc586fcefc588870aa3159b713aa813578326562c | 09-22 | 23.18x | W0.25 N3 at 1.27x (2.4 min, cap $729k); W0.50 N3 at 1.27x (2.4 min, cap $729k); W1.00 N3 at 1.18x (5.0 min, cap $677k) |
| 0xc8b416104e0b4bd5e5e14489f90ac807b67300e2 | 09-22 | 19.61x | W0.25 N3 at 0.77x (0.6 min, cap $216k); W0.50 N3 at 0.77x (0.6 min, cap $216k); W1.00 N3 at 0.77x (0.6 min, cap $216k) |
| 0x0f0aeac337e7f0872101bcd27a599e7ce5af9adc | 09-23 | 12.05x | W0.25 N3 at 5.00x (51.6 min, cap $1239k); W0.50 N3 at 5.00x (51.6 min, cap $1239k) |
| 0xb6fe1035f6edfaeb7a9f7d4c19e11d35b3bd7c57 | 09-23 | 18.66x | W0.25 N3 at 1.28x (9.0 min, cap $662k); W0.25 N5 at 1.39x (10.5 min, cap $719k); W0.50 N3 at 1.28x (9.0 min, cap $662k); W0.50 N5 at 1.39x (10.5 min, cap $719k); W1.00 N3 at 1.30x (11.7 min, cap $675k); W1.00 N5 at 1.44x (12.9 min, cap $744k) |
| 0xd958ef2cc262fdbe3b670aec434d8b9102f5ad34 | 09-23 | 14.55x | W0.25 N3 at 0.72x (4.2 min, cap $275k); W0.50 N3 at 0.72x (4.2 min, cap $275k); W1.00 N3 at 0.72x (4.2 min, cap $275k) |
| 0xbdf0747827c5a7f9a30a85dc6ac6c32243a33a1a | 09-24 | 7.63x | W0.25 N3 at 1.04x (1.5 min, cap $844k); W0.50 N3 at 1.04x (1.5 min, cap $844k); W1.00 N3 at 1.04x (1.5 min, cap $844k) |
| 0xcdc10abe9585ce4127ac4f4c1fe17daf34b0be7a | 09-25 | 15.20x | W0.25 N3 at 0.64x (1.2 min, cap $189k); W0.50 N3 at 0.64x (1.2 min, cap $189k); W1.00 N3 at 0.85x (7.3 min, cap $250k) |
| 0x1a2822ccba364190fe945e80c14493c3964a494d | 09-25 | 16.63x | W0.25 N3 at 0.87x (1.2 min, cap $218k); W0.25 N5 at 1.29x (20.3 min, cap $323k); W0.50 N3 at 0.87x (1.2 min, cap $218k); W0.50 N5 at 1.29x (20.3 min, cap $323k) |
| 0xe1f227ad6f50b3c8905e75ed621610becf4510d9 | 09-25 | 17.32x | W0.25 N3 at 0.83x (1.0 min, cap $562k); W0.50 N3 at 0.83x (1.0 min, cap $562k); W1.00 N3 at 0.83x (1.0 min, cap $562k) |
| 0xaffa3ccfee7eea8e8fe413c8aecc444acdaa885d | 09-27 | 14.60x | W0.25 N3 at 0.86x (1.1 min, cap $374k); W0.50 N3 at 0.86x (1.1 min, cap $374k); W1.00 N3 at 0.86x (1.1 min, cap $374k) |
| 0xeb1646dbfbeacf76483df1092c208388c029c534 | 09-30 | 21.11x | W0.25 N3 at 1.37x (3.6 min, cap $617k); W0.50 N3 at 1.37x (3.6 min, cap $617k); W1.00 N3 at 1.19x (6.5 min, cap $536k) |
| 0xdd0e1aa8a5da29a645d3f5a23e10128d421fb838 | 10-02 | 8.87x | W0.25 N3 at 0.91x (0.2 min, cap $816k); W0.25 N5 at 0.87x (0.3 min, cap $784k); W0.50 N3 at 0.86x (0.2 min, cap $773k); W0.50 N5 at 0.87x (0.3 min, cap $781k); W1.00 N3 at 1.29x (32.8 min, cap $1159k); W1.00 N5 at 1.16x (32.9 min, cap $1043k) |
| 0x6e8a6a1af8ec53f3f09c7303e5403558dee42d0a | 10-02 | 35.88x | W0.25 N3 at 0.97x (0.3 min, cap $493k); W0.25 N5 at 0.98x (0.4 min, cap $499k); W0.50 N3 at 0.97x (0.3 min, cap $493k); W0.50 N5 at 0.98x (0.4 min, cap $499k) |
| 0xb1c2beeeaa20fa384ce963d987550fa6b616683e | 10-03 | 9.68x | W0.25 N3 at 1.04x (0.2 min, cap $560k); W0.25 N5 at 0.96x (0.3 min, cap $519k); W0.50 N3 at 1.04x (0.2 min, cap $560k); W0.50 N5 at 0.96x (0.3 min, cap $519k); W1.00 N3 at 1.04x (0.2 min, cap $560k); W1.00 N5 at 0.96x (0.3 min, cap $519k) |
| 0xa18f2c324111f85cd7cf0a5e4a20f05f89f45c15 | 10-04 | 5.94x | W0.25 N3 at 1.30x (0.3 min, cap $343k); W0.25 N5 at 1.28x (0.4 min, cap $339k); W0.50 N3 at 1.30x (0.3 min, cap $343k); W0.50 N5 at 1.28x (0.4 min, cap $339k) |
| 0x7608c38ea8cc2082b043e886185979942cdeb58e | 10-04 | 17.51x | W0.25 N3 at 1.02x (0.2 min, cap $314k); W0.25 N5 at 1.04x (0.4 min, cap $320k); W0.50 N3 at 1.02x (0.2 min, cap $314k); W0.50 N5 at 1.04x (0.4 min, cap $320k) |
| 0x5078092c196727b4798c5c4d583d69146bec3929 | 10-05 | 9.12x | W0.25 N3 at 1.11x (0.9 min, cap $534k); W0.25 N5 at 1.13x (3.8 min, cap $546k); W0.50 N3 at 1.23x (3.5 min, cap $591k); W0.50 N5 at 1.23x (6.9 min, cap $592k) |
| 0xb4b0dfeaa2e2a838f0f7a304f005ebe32390d4ef | 10-06 | 44.81x | W0.25 N3 at 1.17x (1.0 min, cap $550k); W0.25 N5 at 1.13x (1.0 min, cap $532k); W0.50 N3 at 1.17x (1.0 min, cap $550k); W0.50 N5 at 1.13x (1.0 min, cap $532k) |
| 0x3939ce55ec4e0ff8df9aa6469a795c793da06d55 | 10-06 | 25.43x | W0.25 N3 at 1.60x (0.5 min, cap $1156k); W0.25 N5 at 1.43x (0.5 min, cap $1027k); W0.50 N3 at 1.60x (0.5 min, cap $1156k); W0.50 N5 at 1.43x (0.5 min, cap $1027k); W1.00 N3 at 1.60x (0.5 min, cap $1156k); W1.00 N5 at 1.73x (0.7 min, cap $1248k) |

## Who are the drip wallets (pick cell W0.25 N5, 98 cut trades)

| drip wallet is | base losers | base winners 1x to 5x | base 5x+ | share that were losers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IS launcher | 23 | 4 | 3 | 77% |
| IS LP owner | 24 | 4 | 3 | 77% |
| no link found | 28 | 5 | 4 | 76% |

Full per trade list (pool, drip wallet, launcher, LP owner): http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1code/drip.log

Note: "IS launcher" is checked first, so it also covers coins where the launcher and the LP owner are the same wallet (most of them).
Insider drips (61 of 98) and non insider drips (37 of 98) end the same: about 77% were base losers either way. So the seller's identity does not split good from bad.
First funder: the explorer (robinhoodchain.blockscout.com) sits behind a bot check from every route, so funders for the 98 could not be pulled. I did NOT get around the bot check. On chain funder search was done for live trade 3 only (below).

## Live trade 3 (pool 0x4fc807391d8dd76992043950248b26a610231075)

| wallet | role |
|---|---|
| 0xe039e21687e99744a93a9caf4fb3a716309d78b9 | the drip seller AND the LP owner (A1.26 lp owner lookup) |
| 0x6acf4526b3c0c85fe461f2f7d6e052e23599d72e | launcher (sent the first LP mint) |
| 0xbc7351e816ab059aa3bc01da4369271ded83781f | funded BOTH of them in one tx: 16.06 ETH into a split contract 0x8876789976decbfcbbbe364623c63652db8c0904, tx 0xdb9c91fa5680aa7ba0223d6011d3b8e7355be613eb62793f20feca52e1e79c26, block 81880359 (first funding block of both wallets) |

So on trade 3 the drip wallet is the LP owner, and it shares a funder (same tx) with the launcher: one team. But on the backtest the same "team member is selling" sign shows up on 6 of the 5x+ winners too.

## EXTRA, not pre registered: exit when the LP OWNER makes any sell of at least W WETH

| cell | H1 $/day ($100) | H2 $/day ($100) | H2 worst 3 days | H2 no top 2 | H2 cut (losers / winners / 5x+) | H2 $/day ($1,000) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BASE | +605 | **+1,550** | **+715** | **+894** | | **+12,658** |
| own W0.25 | +573 | +817 | -798 | +161 | 86 (67 / 19 / 7) | +6,154 |
| own W0.50 | +572 | +825 | -773 | +169 | 84 (66 / 18 / 7) | +6,228 |
| own W1.00 | +545 | +1,066 | -253 | +410 | 56 (46 / 10 / 5) | +8,454 |

Also loses on both halves. The LP owner sells inside the first minute after our fill on most coins, including the 15x to 25x winners (0x1a2822ccba364190fe945e80c14493c3964a494d 16.63x cut at 0.87x, 0xe1f227ad6f50b3c8905e75ed621610becf4510d9 17.32x cut at 0.84x, 0x3939ce55ec4e0ff8df9aa6469a795c793da06d55 25.43x cut at 1.64x). Full list in a1code/dripx.log.

## What would change the verdict
A seller signal that fires LATE (after 20+ minutes) and only on coins that then cascade. On this book no such slice exists: the cuts are early and hit winners as often as losers. A3's live read of trade 3 is right about what happened, but the same pattern is everywhere before the big runs too.

Code and logs: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1code/v3drip.py , v3dripx.py , dripfund.py , dripfund2.py , drip.log , dripx.log