# A1.27: mc5 conditional hold past 4 h (v23 task), plus lp_class tags
First Window Analyst 1, 6 Oct 2026, 18:26 Bangkok. Code: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1code/v3extend.py . Log: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1code/extend.log

## Read this first
- **FAIL in all 18 cells, both halves, at $100 and $1k. Keep the 4 h time stop.** No cell beats base even on H1, so the H1 pick (hold to 8 h if x >= 2, 300+ new buyer wallets in the last hour, price above 1 h ago) loses on H2: **+$1,212 vs +$1,550 a day at $100**, worst 3 days -$913 vs +$715 ($9,560 vs $12,658 a day at $1k).
- Under the pick 11 coins got extended (H1 2, H2 9): **10 of 11 gave money back, 1 added $108.** Biggest costs: pool 0xaffa3ccfee7eea8e8fe413c8aecc444acdaa885d 14.60x -> pulled 0x (-$1,460), pool 0xb6fe1035f6edfaeb7a9f7d4c19e11d35b3bd7c57 18.66x -> 8.94x (-$972), pool 0xe1f227ad6f50b3c8905e75ed621610becf4510d9 17.32x -> 9.01x (-$831).
- Why: at 4 h a winner has already had its buyer wave. "Buyers still coming" (hundreds of new wallets an hour) is normal on these coins even while they bleed; most extended coins halve and hit the 0.5x-of-4 h stop. The few that kept running (pool 0x00db2e029a6a62155a1802b9813f01b68b7d07d5 3.08x -> 49.64x at 8 h, pool 0xfe313dbaa0f659bc3a36cc47b43949cbd960ce66 4.75x -> 14.99x) show no buyer or price signal at 4 h that separates them.
- **lp_class tag is live** (no bot change): every row in http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-live-match.txt and in http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-mc5-top-paper.txt now carries EOA / CONTRACT / BURNED (code http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1code/lpclass.py ; checked 6 of 6 against the A1.26 backtest classes). Re-test skip contract + skip burned at 15+ trades each.

## Setup
- Same 178 dust-guarded mc5 trades as A1.25/A1.26 (H1 31, H2 147): fill 6 s after the +5 min signal, stop 0.5x, every exit at end of next block, own buy kept, pull = 0, $100 and $1k real depth.
- At fill + 4 h, only trades still open (35 with x >= 2): extend if x >= M (2/3/5) AND new buyer wallets in the last 60 min >= B (50/150/300) AND price > its level 1 h earlier. Extended: hold to fill + 8 h or + 12 h, stop at 0.5 x the 4 h value (next block), pull = 0. Only coins with 12 h of chain data are extendable (the two 6 Oct coins stay at 4 h).
- New buyer wallet = first time an address receives the token (Transfer logs from the first swap), not the pool, not one of 1,459 router or bot addresses.

## Results at $100 ($ a day, H1 / H2)
| hold | M | B 50 | B 150 | B 300 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 h | 2 | +364 / +1,214 | +364 / +1,193 | +483 / +1,212 |
| 8 h | 3 | +382 / +1,226 | +382 / +1,206 | +483 / +1,224 |
| 8 h | 5 | +382 / +1,173 | +382 / +1,238 | +483 / +1,238 |
| 12 h | 2 | +364 / +1,134 | +364 / +1,219 | +483 / +1,238 |
| 12 h | 3 | +382 / +1,137 | +382 / +1,222 | +483 / +1,240 |
| 12 h | 5 | +382 / +1,190 | +382 / +1,254 | +483 / +1,254 |
Base (4 h): H1 +$605, H2 +$1,550. Every H2 worst 3 days is negative (-$745 to -$1,168) vs base +$715.

## Extended coins under the H1 pick (8 h, M 2, B 300), 4 h x -> extended x, $ at $100
- 0x0f0aeac337e7f0872101bcd27a599e7ce5af9adc 12.05x -> 5.89x stop, -$615 (23 Sep)
- 0xb6fe1035f6edfaeb7a9f7d4c19e11d35b3bd7c57 18.66x -> 8.94x stop, -$972 (23 Sep)
- 0xe1f227ad6f50b3c8905e75ed621610becf4510d9 17.32x -> 9.01x stop, -$831 (25 Sep)
- 0xd43679ab6a0d54401e2555fe77e1ca531b90f08b 3.29x -> 1.62x stop, -$167 (26 Sep)
- 0xaffa3ccfee7eea8e8fe413c8aecc444acdaa885d 14.60x -> 0x pull, -$1,460 (27 Sep)
- 0xf9acec5b169bbfd35fa05d78cb58bfd3fb6fba72 2.53x -> 1.26x stop, -$127 (30 Sep)
- 0xdd0e1aa8a5da29a645d3f5a23e10128d421fb838 8.87x -> 3.52x stop, -$535 (2 Oct)
- 0x6e8a6a1af8ec53f3f09c7303e5403558dee42d0a 35.88x -> 36.96x time, +$108 (2 Oct)
- 0x7608c38ea8cc2082b043e886185979942cdeb58e 17.51x -> 14.93x time, -$258 (4 Oct)
- 0x5560b76440e9b6660ab6ca8c7ae1941c92abffcf 2.71x -> 2.53x time, -$18 (5 Oct)
- 0x5078092c196727b4798c5c4d583d69146bec3929 9.12x -> 1.48x stop, -$765 (5 Oct)
The full list of 35 open-at-4 h coins with buyers, price trend, 8 h and 12 h results is in the log.

Version: v1, 6 Oct 2026 18:26 Bangkok. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-mc5-extend.md