# A1.22 Re-pick stop and entry on the dust-guarded mc5 book (FW Analyst 1, 6 Oct 2026, 16:48 Bangkok)

**Verdict: no change. Base stays: +5 min entry, stop 0.5x from entry, 4 h time stop, $250k to $1M, dust guard.**
- The H1 pick (stop 0.6x) beat base on H1 by $8 a day, then FAILED on H2: $857 vs $1,416 a day.
- The entry knob picked +5 min itself.
- Stop arming only after +10 min is a little worse everywhere.
- **Mean loss per losing trade (base): -$63 per $100 ticket**, all days (H1 -$69, H2 -$62). That is 0.63 of a ticket, not 0.5: stops fill below the line, and pulls are 0. Win rate 21%.

## Setup
- 817 v3 WETH pools with 4.5 h+ of data; dust guard (0.001+ WETH price-moving swap and pool WETH 0.1+ before entry); band $250k to $1M at the entry checkpoint.
- $100 real-depth fill, 1% GMGN each way plus pool fee plus gas, 3 s delay, pull = 0, 4 h time stop from entry.
- H1 = 13 to 24 Sep (13 days), H2 = 25 Sep to 6 Oct (12 days). $ a day is over all days in the half.

## Grid ($100; $ a day / worst 3 days / mean loss per loser)
| entry | stop | H1 | H2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| +3 min | 0.5x | $574 / -$306 / -$63 | $1,190 / +$340 / -$63 |
| +4 min | 0.5x | $502 / -$310 / -$63 | $1,000 / +$157 / -$63 |
| **+5 min** | **0.4x** | $587 / -$357 / -$78 | $1,394 / +$399 / -$73 |
| **+5 min** | **0.5x (base)** | **$591 / -$357 / -$69** | **$1,416 / +$700 / -$62** |
| +5 min | 0.6x | $599 / -$236 / -$53 | $857 / +$296 / -$52 |
| +5 min | 0.7x | $262 / -$223 / -$43 | $496 / -$34 / -$40 |
| +5 min | 0.5x armed after +10 min | $590 / -$357 / -$69 | $1,356 / +$567 / -$73 |
| +6 min | 0.5x | $387 / -$358 / -$69 | $1,077 / +$963 / -$65 |
| +7 min | 0.5x | $521 / -$139 / -$63 | $1,397 / +$736 / -$64 |
| +7 min | 0.4x | $503 / -$139 / -$77 | $1,333 / +$681 / -$74 |

Full grid (all 25 cells): http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1code/knobs.log

## Notes
- Tighter stops (0.6x, 0.7x) cut the average loss but kill the winners: H2 win rate falls from 20% to 13% and 8%, because coins dip below 0.6x and then run.
- 0.4x is close to base but loses more per loser (-$73 to -$78) and has a worse H2 worst 3 days.
- +7 min matches base on H2 but is lower on H1. Base is the stable choice.
- **For wallet sizing (Analyst 2's ~15 tickets of drawdown): use -0.63 ticket per loser and about 4 in 5 trades losing.**

Code: a1code/v3knobs.py (research-box /root/fwa1).