# A1.26: mc5 LP owner check at the +5 min block (v22 task)
First Window Analyst 1, 6 Oct 2026, 18:18 Bangkok. Code: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1code/v3lpown.py . Log: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1code/lpown.log

## Read this first
- **Almost every mc5 coin has its LP held by ONE plain wallet (EOA): 162 of 178 trades, 100% of in-range units in 176 of 178.** That class carries all the money: H2 2.41x, +$1,599 a day at $100 (+$13,215 at $1k).
- **Coins with LP in a contract (locker or kit) or burned LOSE:** contract 8 trades, mean 0.60x (H1 0.63x, H2 0.55x); burned 8 trades (H2 only), 0.43x, and 0 of them were pulled. A "safe" LP does not stop the dump; the coin just never runs.
- **SKIP CONTRACT (H1 pick) = PASS, but small:** H2 +$1,561 vs +$1,550 a day at $100 (+$12,832 vs +$12,658 at $1k), worst 3 days equal, no-top-2 up ($905 vs $894). It rests on 3 H2 trades, so it is a cheap, safe filter, not a new edge.
- Burned LP never showed up in H1, so it cannot be picked; on H2 it was the worst class (8 trades, -$38 a day). Skipping both contract and burned would have added about +$49 a day on H2. Proposal: log it, re-test on half C.
- **SIZE TILT (1.5x locked or burned, 0.5x EOA) FAILS hard:** H2 +$1,263 vs +$1,550 at $100; it bets more on the losers.
- **Early warning does not exist on the NFT:** of 85 trades whose pool got pulled within the 4 h window, only 1 had an NFT approve before the Burn (pool 0xaf36a2b5f81ab17c194462654e211b569a1f3cdc, approve 1,834 s before the pull). 28 of 93 NOT-pulled trades had an NFT transfer or approve (false alarms). The puller just burns from the owner wallet directly.
- Why (from the mechanism): on these launches the dev keeps the LP in his own wallet AND is the one who pumps; the same control that lets him pull lets him run the coin. Locking or burning the LP takes the dev out of the game, and those coins do not run.

## Setup
- Book: the same 178 dust-guarded mc5 trades as A1.25 (H1 31, H2 147): +5 min $250k to $1M, fill 6 s after the signal, stop 0.5x, 4 h, every exit at end of next block, own buy kept, pull = 0, $100 and $1k real depth.
- LP holder at the signal block (first swap +300 s): every Mint up to that block with its owner topic; for position manager 0x73991a25c818bf1f1128deaab1492d45638de0d3 mints the NFT tokenId from the tx receipt (IncreaseLiquidity) and ownerOf(tokenId) at the signal block. Only positions in range at the current tick count. Class by the largest holder: EOA (no code), CONTRACT (has code), BURNED (zero or dead address).
- "Pull rate" below = the pool got a 50%+ liquidity Burn within the 4 h window (whether or not our trade was still open).

## By class
| half | class | trades | pull rate | mean x | $ a day $100 | $ a day $1k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 | EOA | 26 | 38% | 4.10x | +$619 | +$5,393 |
| H1 | CONTRACT | 5 | 60% | 0.63x | -$14 | -$135 |
| H2 | EOA | 136 | 53% | 2.41x | +$1,599 | +$13,215 |
| H2 | CONTRACT | 3 | 0% | 0.55x | -$11 | -$174 |
| H2 | BURNED | 8 | 0% | 0.43x | -$38 | -$382 |

Largest holder share: 100% in 176 of 178 trades (the other 2: 0.25x). The share is not a usable signal.

## Uses (pick on H1, test once on H2)
| book | H1 $ a day $100 | H2 $ a day $100 | H2 $ a day $1k | H2 worst 3 days $100 | H2 no top 2 $100 | verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BASE | +$605 | +$1,550 | +$12,658 | +$715 | +$894 | |
| SKIP CONTRACT | +$619 | +$1,561 | +$12,832 | +$715 | +$905 | PASS (small) |
| SIZE TILT | +$436 | +$1,263 | +$10,043 | +$484 | +$692 | FAIL |

## For the live bot (if adopted)
- At the +5 min check: read the pool's Mint owners (and ownerOf for position manager NFTs) and skip the coin if the largest in-range holder is a contract. One getLogs plus at most a few eth_calls; fits inside the 6 s fill window.

Version: v1, 6 Oct 2026 18:18 Bangkok. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-mc5-lpowner.md