# v4:native radar-cross lane (board #2604, ledger #608), analyst1 16 Oct
Data: /opt/sw/radar/radar.jsonl, 10-16 Oct, non-backfill crosses. Scripts r1-r3.py in /opt/crew/work/analyst1.
## The "188 runners" are mostly not buyable
- 709 v4:native tokens cross 300k; 188 reach 1M. But 157 of 709 crossed with cap > 450k (gapped launches, caps up to $5B = fake/decimal) -> no entry at 300k exists.
- Genuine 300k crosses (cap <= 450k): n=552; 1M 12% (65), 3M 2% (12), 5M 1% (7), 10M 5, 20M 3. Same filter v3: 1M 48%, 5M 10%; v4:usdg 1M 33%, 5M 13%.
- Slow creepers (age >120 s, 373 pools): 1M 1%. Dead lane. fee-100 creepers (n=117) hit 1M 34% but ALL at 1.00-1.08M, none beyond 3M, 300k->1M takes 20-140 min: a farmed-to-$1M pattern, 3x at best, not a runner lane.
- Thin/zero-depth born-high pools (depth < 100 USD, fee 250k-900k): untradeable (cannot sell). Exclude.
## The real lane: born-at-300k+ kit, tradeable
Filter: v4:native nohook, fee 0, depth_usd 25-35k, cap at first cross 300-450k, age < 10 s. n=15 in 4 days (12-14 Oct, none after 14 Oct 10:14 UTC; later ones are age 19-182 s and all died).
Peak: 20M x2, 10M x1, 5M x1, 3M x1, 2M x1, 1M x6, <1M x3 (n=15) -> 1M 80%, 5M+ 27%, 10M+ 20%. Lag 1.2-1.9 s on 11 of 15 (10-15 s on 3).
Caveats: n=15, 3 launcher clusters, nothing since 14 Oct 10:14 (kit may have stopped or changed); radar has no downside path (losers' drawdown, rug) so no multiple is claimed; outside-wallet sellability not tested.
## Verdict
- General v4:native 300k lane: KILL (12% to 1M, 1% to 5M, 150 stale/fake).
- Kit lane (call it NK0): keep as ledger idea, family miss. Next test needs v4tape/swap path for these 15 + any new ones: min drawdown before 1M, outside buyers, sell sim. Watch for recurrence; if no new age-0 fee-0 depth~28k pool in 7 days, retire.