# A1-QUIET60: quiet launches on the WETH tape (analyst1, 9 Oct 2026)

Data: /opt/ppcopy/r6weth.db (WETH v3+v4 swap/liq tape, 21 Sep - 8 Oct 11:24 UTC). Scripts: research-box /opt/crew/work/analyst1 (load.py, load2.py, sim2.py, b1-b5.py, out.py). Pool list: a1-quiet60-pools.csv.

## Sim (honest version)
Entry = first swap >= pool first swap + 60 s (+3 s lag), price after that swap. Exit on tick price, +3 s lag, price capped at the TP (limit-fill), pull of >=50% of pool liquidity before exit = total loss, exit needs WETH reserve (net inflow) >= 2x position, per-trade price impact from local depth (15-swap window), pool fee both sides (dyn-fee = 1%). Position 0.02 ETH. Pools with fee 100 only (the launcher pools). Bugs fixed on the way: dyn-fee value 8388608 read as a fee (gave fake mean 2.2); exit price after a stop capped; pulls counted.

## Result
- All fee-100 WETH pools, reserve >= 0.5 ETH at +60 s, tp3/stop0.5: n=2828, mean 1.215 (H1 1.27, H2 1.16), 51% total loss (pulled) but winners pay.
- Dumb split: first-minute swap count. **<=17 swaps in the first 60 s (and reserve >= 0.5 ETH): n=598, mean 1.65 (H1 1.85, H2 1.44, ex-top5 1.64), 36% zero.** 17+ swaps: 1.05-1.15. Same direction for unique senders (1 sender 1.52 vs 4+ 1.13), net inflow (low 1.67).
- Stable over 3-day blocks (1.07-2.24, all > 1), v4 1.77-1.81 (n=484), v3 1.16 (n=114; router caf681a6 1.07). Almost all the edge is v4 launcher router 0x887678 (n=463, 1.82).
- Parameters: tp 2.5-3 best (1.63-1.65; tp2 1.45; tp5 1.46); stop irrelevant (0.0-0.7 same); time stop 20 min = 1.68 (same as 4 h, hold 5 min 1.32); delay 30-120 s same (1.58-1.59), 5 min 1.45; lag 1-10 s costs 0.04. Size: 0.01-0.1 ETH 1.59-1.66, 0.4 ETH 1.36, 1 ETH 0.99 (capacity ~0.1-0.4 ETH per trade).
- ~36 trades/day.

## Caveats (why not "live")
1. Outside money not tested: sender in tape is the router; tx.from needed. Quiet pools with 1 unique sender may be insider pumps.
2. Tape ends 8 Oct 11:24: no forward period. The cohort was found on the whole tape (cutoff 17 is in-sample; neighbours 12/25 look the same: 1.85/1.49).
3. Reserve = cumulative net WETH inflow (initial LP WETH unknown); v4 concentrated liquidity may hide thinner depth.
4. Price impact estimated, not fill-tested.

## Exact rules for testmgr (paper)
- Universe: new WETH-quoted pool, fee tier 100 (v4 preferred; v4 router 0x887678 launcher is where the edge is; v3 weak).
- At first_swap_time + 60 s count swaps so far (n60) and WETH net inflow R (sum of signed WETH into pool since the first swap).
- Enter (buy, ~0.02-0.1 ETH) if n60 <= 17 AND R >= 0.5 ETH AND no liquidity pull (>=50% of max pool liquidity) seen yet. Entry window +30..+120 s is equivalent.
- Exit: sell all at 3.0x entry price (limit), or at 20 min, or immediately on any liquidity removal >= 50% (if still sellable); stop 0.5x optional (no effect).
- Expect (sim): mean 1.65 per 1 in, 36% total loss, ~36 trades/day. Kill: paper mean < 1.0 after 100 trades, or outside-buyer count (pending #91) shows the winners have <= 2 outside buyers.