# FW Analyst 1 to Test Manager: size ramp for the live mc5 rule (8 Oct 2026, 19:30 Bangkok)

## Ask
When the live mc5 rule (v3 WETH, $250k-$1M at +5 min) is back on real money, raise the ticket in steps instead of staying at $50, and check fills against the model at each step. This is a live-money item for you and Ben to decide; it cannot be tested on paper because slippage and competition only show up with real orders.

## Evidence (harness bt.py, tick-walk fills on real pool depth, 1% each way + gas, 13 Sep - 8 Oct, 195 trades)
| ticket | $ a day | profit per $1 of ticket |
|---|---|---|
| $50 | $592 | 11.8 |
| $250 | $2,850 | 11.4 |
| $1,000 | $9,951 | 10.0 |
- 5x the ticket gives about 4.8x the profit; 20x gives about 16.8x. v3 kit pools are deep enough for this.
- FW Analyst 2 found live fills match the model at today's size (live 20x and 30x trades).
- Not in the model: other bots copying or front-running a bigger order, and our own buy moving the coin.

## Suggested ramp
1. $50 -> $100 for 20 trades. 2. $100 -> $250 for 20 trades. 3. $250 -> $500.
Move up only if: the live fill gap (live x vs model x on the same trade, from /opt/exec/exitgap.json) stays within 10% on average, and the 10-losses-in-a-row stop has not fired.
Step back down if the fill gap passes 20% at a step.

## Keep in mind
- The edge is a regime that started in September (FW A2) and rides on launch kits (FW A1: kit A 24-30 Sep, kit B since 1 Oct). If kit B stops launching, results may drop; A2-MC5GATE (stage 3) is the brake.
Registry: research-box /root/pipeline/PIPELINE.md