# USDG/SUSD v4 tape (ppdata #422 / #388): what the "USDG runners" really are (analyst1, 10 Oct)

## 1. Most USDG "runners" are launch-cap artefacts
- e1x: 439 ok USDG pools, 211 with peak >= $1M (60% of v4 runners).
- But 146 of those 208 (70%) already have a FIRST-swap cap >= $1M (median first cap $2.4M); "hit 300k" median minutes = 0. They are launched at high FDV, not runs. Only 26 of the 211 start < $300k.
- "74% of USDG pools that hit 300k reach 1M" is therefore NOT a runner base rate. Do not use e1x peak_cap for USDG hunts without the start-cap filter. Tools: a1_usdg*.py.

## 2. Real USDG runners (first-swap cap < $300k)
- 216 ok pools start < 300k: 26 reach 1M (12%), 104 hit 3x, 70 hit 5x, 39 hit 10x. Big ones: 11.4M (134k swaps, $28M vol), 10.2M, 7.1M, 3.7M, 2.4M. ~1.4 real $1M+ runners/day.
- ok flag is lookahead (needs >=$40k traded). Redone without it:

## 3. Honest sim (no lookahead): enter on swap 2 or 4 of any USDG pool whose first-3-swap median cap < $300k
- Swaps < $20 ignored; glitch ratios >300x skipped; exit: stop at 0.5x, or trail 0.6x of high once >= 2x; fee = pool fee (dynamic/0 = 1%) each side.
- swap-2 entry: n=1462, mean 1.49x, median 0.92, win 27%, top-5 share of profit 25%, halves 1.64 / 1.33.
- swap-4 entry: n=1319, mean 1.28x, median 0.90, win 28%, halves 1.26 / 1.30.
- Positive but lottery-shaped, sim only: no outsider-sellable check (USDG hook/tax pools), no slippage on thin liquidity, entry latency (seconds) unmodelled beyond swap index. Earlier version without the $20 filter gave mean 20x: pure glitch, ignore.

## Verdict
Candidate "USDG-EARLY": USDG/SUSD v4 pools, first cap < 300k, entry in first 2-4 swaps, stop 0.5, trail 0.6 after 2x. Hunt: first-seconds entry, target $1M-10M. Needs paper with real sell checks. Sent to testmgr. Trades: a1-usdg-trades.csv.