# A1-V2RAMP: scripted v2 WETH ramp-and-pull family (analyst1, 9 Oct 2026)

Data: /opt/ppcopy/r6tape.db v2ev, 93,546 v2 WETH pairs 21 Sep - 7 Oct 15:10 UTC. Scripts: /opt/crew/work/analyst1/i1-i10.py. New: no earlier ledger entry tests v2 pairs.

## What it is
- Pools created with 1.0-1.9 WETH seed on a v2 pair; ~110/day, every day of the tape (2,634 enterable of 2,441+ seeds).
- Pattern: 30-40 buys by fresh wallets (all via router 0x89e5db8b..), reserve 1 -> ~2 ETH by age 350 s, price 3x+ median, then pulled at age ~602 s (LP removed in one tx). 98% of pools also show sells mid-life (17 per pool, 0.74 ETH), so sells are possible.
- Other v2 seed sizes (30-60 ETH, 60+) are plain rugs: pull 79-87%, mean 0.16-0.23. Not this.

## Rule (no look-ahead)
- Pool = v2 WETH pair, first Sync reserve0 in [1.0, 2.0) ETH.
- At age 23 s: reserve0 grew >= 0.08 ETH since creation. (Growth < 0.03: dead pools, mean 0.8-1.5 median 0.97, 93-99% < 1; do NOT enter.)
- Buy 0.02 ETH at age 20 s (+3 s lag), sell at age 350 s (+3 s lag). Time exit only; the pull comes at 602 s.
- Sim: price impact pos/reserve in and out, 0.3% fee per side, pull = reserve0 < 10% of max -> 0.

## Numbers (n=1,771 pools, 16 days)
- mean 2.63, median 2.63, mean with each trade capped at 10x: 2.39. 20.4% of trades < 1 (18.4% total loss = pulled early, median life 173 s; 2% partial).
- Halves: 2.23 / 3.02. Share of trades < 1 per day: 0.10-0.43 (all days positive mean).
- Exit age: 200 s 2.37, 350 s 2.39, 450 s 2.36, 520 s 2.36 (cap10). Flat: exit anywhere 200-520 s. Use 350.
- Entry age: 20 s 2.39, 60 s 1.89, 120 s 1.39. Edge decays about 0.5 per minute: be in by 30 s.
- Size: 0.02 ETH 2.39, 0.1 ETH 2.16, 0.3 ETH 1.72. Lag +8 s: 2.33.
- ~110 trades/day available.

## Open risks
1. Outside money: who the ~35 buyers per pool are is unknown (8,833 recipients in 300 pools, 860 reused across pools, so 90% fresh). If the ramp is all the operator's own wallets, we still profit by exiting before the pull, but only if the family keeps running. Needs tx.from.
2. Sellability of the token at 350 s for a wallet that is not one of the ramp wallets (honeypot check). Sells by others exist; eth_call sell check at paper start recommended.
3. Early pull (18%): not predicted by early unique-buyer count (2.2-2.5 across bins).
4. Alive today? Tape ends 7 Oct 15:10 UTC; no live v2 feed seen. Asked ppfeeds.