# FW A1: v3 WETH coins in their first 15 minutes (FW Analyst 1, 6 Oct 2026, 14:48 Bangkok)

## Read this first
- **Data:** every Uniswap v3 WETH pool created 13 Sep to 6 Oct, with swaps and token transfers for each coin's first 2 h (read from chain).
  - 7,158 pools, 6,052 with trades. 2.1M swaps, 4.2M transfers.
  - Label: the coin printed a swap of 0.01 ETH or more at a $1M+ market cap within 2 h of its first trade.
  - **208 coins did (3.4%), about 9 a day.**
- **1. Real results of outside buyers.** Buyer = the final wallet that received the tokens, followed through the 37 router/hub addresses. P&L counts their own sells within 2 h.
  - **Fresh wallets** (had not bought in the first 15 min of any EARLIER coin) **lose money unless they buy in minute 1.** ETH back from sales within 2 h:
    - Bought at 0 to 1 min: 1.50x the ETH they put in.
    - At 1 to 5 min: 0.73x.
    - At 5 to 15 min: 0.64x.
    - On coins that did NOT reach $1M: 0.69x, 0.45x and 0.45x.
  - **Repeat early buyers (3 or more earlier coins) are the snipers, and they win.** In minute 0 to 1 they get back 1.48x, and 87% of them are in profit. Even on coins that never reach $1M they get 1.33x.
  - So the first minute pays the bots. A fresh buyer who comes in at 1 to 15 min is their exit.
- **2. Launch facts that pick the later $1M coins (walk forward: picked on 13 to 24 Sep, tested on 25 Sep to 6 Oct).**
  - **Market cap at 5 min is the only strong fact.** Hit $1M within 2 h, by market cap at 5 min (first half / second half):

    | Market cap at 5 min | Hit $1M in 2 h |
    |---|---|
    | $250k to $1M | 25% / 31% |
    | $100k to $250k | 5% / 6% |
    | $50k to $100k | 2% / 2% |
    | under $50k | 0 to 1% |

  - **Under $250k, fresh buyers plus the A1.11 farm filter add something.** Rule: 20+ fresh buyers in 5 min and under 5% of buy ETH from repeat wallets. It hits $1M 13% of the time on the first half (47 coins) and 14 to 18% on the second (27 to 35 coins), against 2.4% for all coins. That is a 6x lift in both halves, but on small numbers.
  - Same picture at 1 min and 15 min. The A1.11 repeat-wallet filter (rep1 under 5%) is part of the best rules below $250k.
- **3. No profit number yet, on purpose.** My 2 h data can't price an exit honestly. Pulls after 2 h are missed, and tiny coins give absurd ratios: a test "paper return" showed 1.1e7x on dust coins, so I dropped it.
  - Analyst 2's v3 rule (buy at the first $1M) stays the tradeable version.
  - This study says: **don't buy v3 coins in the first 15 minutes as an outsider.** Fresh buyers lose 27 to 36% of their ETH. Only market cap already at $250k+ at 5 min (25 to 31% then hit $1M) is a real early sign. It's a watch signal for Analyst 2's $1M gate, not a buy.

## Method
- Scripts on research-box /root/fwa1:
  - v3pull.py: getLogs for Swap of the pool and Transfer of the token, first 2 h, paid dRPC, batched.
  - v3meta.py: supply and decimals, plus ETH/USD from CoinGecko.
  - v3an.py: per pool and per wallet.
  - v3rep.py: tables.
  - Data: v3/v3a1.db (2.6 GB) and v3/an.pkl.
- Wallet classes use only coins whose 15 min window closed before this coin's first trade (walk forward). Fresh = 0 earlier coins, repeat 1 to 2, repeat 3+.
- "Out + left" (in the detail table) values unsold tokens at the last 0.01+ ETH swap price at 2 h, capped at 20x the ETH in. It is an upper bound, because pulls after 2 h are not seen.
- Limits:
  - P&L stops at 2 h.
  - A buy routed through an unknown router is credited to the router (no hub list is complete).
  - ETH/USD is daily.

## Detail: early buyers, 2 h
| Entry | Wallet class | Wallets | ETH in | Sold within 2 h / ETH in | Plus unsold tokens / ETH in | Share in profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 1 min | fresh | 9,291 | 4,560 | 1.50 | 6.47 | 54% |
| 0 to 1 min | repeat 1 to 2 | 4,426 | 1,122 | 1.58 | 3.05 | 62% |
| 0 to 1 min | repeat 3+ | 56,607 | 6,923 | 1.48 | 2.55 | 87% |
| 1 to 5 min | fresh | 28,072 | 6,978 | 0.73 | 1.74 | 40% |
| 1 to 5 min | repeat 1 to 2 | 14,507 | 4,175 | 0.84 | 1.66 | 50% |
| 1 to 5 min | repeat 3+ | 64,620 | 13,906 | 0.95 | 1.44 | 70% |
| 5 to 15 min | fresh | 46,122 | 11,038 | 0.64 | 1.73 | 44% |
| 5 to 15 min | repeat 1 to 2 | 20,967 | 5,765 | 0.75 | 1.59 | 50% |
| 5 to 15 min | repeat 3+ | 63,960 | 12,046 | 0.91 | 1.22 | 57% |
- Fresh buyers on coins that did not hit $1M: sold back 0.69x (0 to 1 min), 0.45x (1 to 5 min) and 0.45x (5 to 15 min).
- Fresh buyers on coins that hit $1M later: 2.90x, 1.42x and 1.27x.

First principles: about 75%. P&L is from the wallets' own trades on chain, and labels and memory use only earlier data. Missing: life after 2 h and an honest exit model.

Version 1, 6 Oct 2026 14:48 Bangkok. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/a1-v3-first15.md