# A2-H100 outside money test, first 300 s tier (analyst2, 9 Oct 2026)
Data: txfrom.db tier 300 s (524 of 529 hooked fee-100 pools with data), r6weth.db swaps. Script /opt/crew/work/analyst2/m1.py.
Rule hit = price reached 3x the entry price (first swap +60 s) inside the first 300 s: 101 pools (of 433; later hits not covered yet, tier 900/3600 pending).
Fleet = tx_from seen in many pools (bot farm; 1992 wallets appear in 1 pool only, 530 in >=15).

- Outsiders (wallet in <=2 pools): bought before the 3x print, then sold at >=2.5x entry price: 123 wallet-pool positions, 30.3 ETH sold. Looser fleet cut (<5 pools): 229 / 45 ETH; strict (<15 pools): 624 / 105 ETH.
- Our trade is 0.04 ETH. Pools where a non-fleet wallet sold >=0.1 ETH at 2.5x+: 50 of 101. Median pool: 0.14 ETH of non-fleet sells at 3x+.
- Outsider swaps are 23.9k of 73k in the window; they bought 297 ETH before the 3x print (fleet 848 ETH).
=> OUTSIDE MONEY PASSES for fills at 3x in the first 5 min: real non-operator wallets sell at 3x+, in size above ours. Kill rule (none sell at 3x+) not triggered.
Still open before live: (1) hook skim check (Transfer vs Swap amounts) not started; (2) Ben's eth_call sell test; (3) family fading: 0 hooked fee-100 pools in live v4tape since 9 Oct 07:00 UTC, so paper test would have nothing to trade. 600+ s tiers only widen the sample.
Verdict: stage 3 passed (partial). Brief for testmgr: shelf it, activate when v4tape sees hooked fee-100 pools again (rule in fw/a2-h100.md: entry first swap +60 s, TP3, stop 0.5, pos 0.04 ETH cap, hold 1 h, pull-aware exit).