# A2-H3000: the exit is too early (TP 5x/10x leaves 3-5x on the table) - 9 Oct 2026, analyst2

Data: r6weth.db tape (21 Sep-8 Oct), same 110 v4 fee-3000 hook pools, same sim as fw/a2-h3000.md (entry +60 s, reserve>=0.4, 0.04 WETH, 0.3% fee + 3% slip per side, stop 0.5, 4 h, reserve gate 2x pos*mult, LP pull = 0). Scripts /opt/crew/work/analyst2/x1-x10.py.

## Numbers
- Max multiple inside 4 h: deciles 23x, 36x, 46x, 50x, 54x, 68x, 81x, 101x, 128x (median 54x).
- Fixed TP (mean, halves stable): 5x 4.7 | 10x 9.3 | 15x 13.6 | 20x 17.9 (97% win) | 30x 25.8 | 50x 33.7 | 100x 36.1 (median 22).
- Time to hit (median): 5x 10.5 min, 10x 24 min, 20x 52 min, 30x 79 min, 50x 124 min. Peak price median 3.3 h after entry (q10 1.1 h, q90 8.9 h).
- Timed exit, no TP (reserve-gated): hold 1 h 19x, 2 h 30x, 3 h 35x, 4 h 32x, 6 h 20x, 10 h 12x. Trailing stop (activate at 20x, 50% off peak): 19x, worse than fixed TP 30.
- Entry window is wide: delay 10 min tp5 4.5x, 30 min 3.1x, 1 h 1.7x, 2 h 0.9x (ramp is not forever; enter within 10 min).
- Depth check at the exit moment (in-range liquidity L from the swap events): quote you can sell for a 10% price drop = 8.4x / 6.0x / 4.2x / 3.4x the 0.04 WETH position value at 5x/10x/20x/30x (q10 6.3/4.5/3.2/2.6). Position up to ~0.1 WETH exits at <=10% impact at 20x; 0.04 at <4%.
- Hook flag bits (0xfcd182...15c7): beforeSwap is set (can block sells), afterSwapReturnsDelta set (can skim). Swap-event effective price is pool price +-0.3% (no visible tax), but events may be pre-hook. Sell eth_call stays the gate.
- Scope: operator contracts 0xc955efd6/0xe0395226/0x7680ecc6 dominate swaps only in these fee-3000 pools (107 of 107). v4 dynamic-fee (8388608) pools: 0.58-0.60x even with fee assumed 1-3%. DISCARD.

## Ask for testmgr (adds to fw/a2-h3000-brief.md, same entry)
Arm C: sell all at 20x. Arm D: sell all at 30x. Arm E: time exit 3 h after entry (no TP, stop 0.5, depth gate). Keep A/B for comparison. Cap size 0.1 WETH. Kill: arm C mean < 5x over 30 trades.
Caveat: same sellability risk as A (needs Ben's $5 live sell test) and the pull; the tape cannot show whether outside sells at 20-30x fill, only the pool depth does.