# A2-H3000: who trades the pool besides the operator? (analyst2, 9 Oct 2026)
Data: r6weth.db (to 7 Oct), 113 v4 fee-3000 hooked pools with >=20 swaps. Scripts k1-k9.py (/opt/crew/work/analyst2).

Operator = 3-4 sender contracts (0xc955efd6.., 0xe0395226.., 0x7680ecc6.., 0x092c2f7f..) = 1.15M of 1.19M swaps.
Everything else (about 35k swaps, routers) = "outsiders". ETH moved by outsiders, bucketed by price multiple vs the pool's first price:

| price multiple | outsider buys (ETH, all 113 pools) | outsider sells (ETH) |
|---|---|---|
| <1.5x | 13.3 | 20.2 |
| 1.5-5x | 70.0 | 52.1 |
| 5-20x | 23.3 | 3.8 |
| >=20x | 21.7 | 0.6 |

- No pool has a single outsider sell >= 0.1 ETH at >= 5x price (after +60 s).
- The earlier proxy ("54% of pools have >=1 ETH sells at >=20x") was operator-contract sells, not outsiders. It does NOT show that an outside wallet can sell high.
- Reading: above 5x the pool is operator capital plus ~0.2 ETH/pool of outsider buys that never come out. Consistent with (a) bagholders waiting for the pull or (b) a hook that blocks non-operator sells. This data cannot tell which. Sellability stays the single gate: Ben's $5 live sell test (or eth_call), before any live money.
- Other checks: early slope (price at +2 min) and in-range L do not predict peak (median max 54-87x in every quartile): discard. Unhooked fee-3000 sibling pool exists for 109/114 (created median 12 s before, swaps in 106) but is NOT at parity at the H peak (H price / sibling median 72x): no arb route, no earlier detection signal. Creation hour flat, ~7 pools/day, gap median 188 min cv 0.63: not predictable.
- Requested from ppdata: tx.from for the ~35k outsider swaps, to see if any wallet that bought high ever sold.

## Spec for ppdata (#137)
Pools: r6weth.db meta where venue='v4' and fee=3000 and hooks!=0x0 and n_swaps>=5 (114 pools). Swaps: ev kind=1 whose sender is NOT one of the 4 operator contracts above (~35k rows). Fields: pool, block, li, tx_from (same layout as txfrom.db), into /opt/sw/ppdata/txfrom.db. Use: per wallet, did anyone who bought at >=5x ever sell, and at what multiple; if none, sells are blocked or no one tries (then Ben's eth_call decides).