# Analyst2 idle run 16 (10 iterations, scripts /opt/crew/work/analyst2/it16/a1-a10.py)
Data: k0.pkl (1,387 u100 = v4 fee100 unhooked WETH pools, pull-aware sim tp3/sl.5, 3% slip, pos 0.04), r6weth.db to 7 Oct 15:10 (tape tail to 9 Oct 01:48 has no new pools: no OOS yet), txfrom.db (467 u100 pools), e1-runners.csv, tokens.db.

1. WHO IS ON THE OTHER SIDE: identity of the routers/senders present in the first 60 s (12 most common). Only 0x3a03aa92 (n=72, 1.50, halves 1.36/1.64) and 0x1d4b8649 (n=51, 1.35) stand out; 12 tests, small n. DISCARD (noise level, watch 0x3a03).
2. LATENCY FLOOR (entry delay 0-5 s, same pools): 2 s 1.91, 3 s 1.88, 5 s 1.80, 60 s 1.01. Going from 5 s to 2 s is worth only +6%; the edge is already captured at 5 s. Creation to first swap median 4.8 s. INFO: do not chase sub-3 s.
3. INIT PRICE TEMPLATE: all u100 pools have the same init price (7.92e32, 50/52) so it cannot split anything. DISCARD.
4. SIBLING / DUMMY POOLS: 0 of 1,387 u100 pools has another pool of the same token (the dummy-partner trick is a hooked-family thing). DISCARD.
5. META / THEME (names): only 1,006 of 7,019 e1 pools have a symbol (tokens.db symbol 2% of 1.7M births, ends 4 Oct). On those: animal 0.29 run vs 0.19 base (real 0.17 vs 0.10), hood/stock words 0.35, stock-token x suffix 0.05, bot templates (NET, WALLET, PAIR) 0.78 raw. Conditional on reaching $300k and n<70 per theme. NOT TESTABLE -> DATA REQUEST dataeng (names for all e1 pools + random control births).
6. CHAIN-WIDE HOT STATE (new regime variant): swaps on the whole chain in prior 10 min quartiles 1.07/1.01/0.93/0.89 (spread 0.18); number of pools currently ramping (>=2x) 1.00/1.00/0.96/0.93. Below the 0.3 kill bar. DISCARD.
7. CALLDATA PLAN LEAK (new lens): fetched the first-swap tx input for 60 pools. Entry goes via the V4 universal router (23), a bot contract 0x17b36 selector e6cb474f (18, 485 bytes) or router 0x6505 (10). In the bot call only the token address, the buy amount and one random word vary: no price limit, no target. By first-swap target: UR 1.74 (n=453), 0x6505 2.16 (n=41), fast entry. DISCARD (nothing hidden in calldata).
8. PYRAMID / CONFIRMATION ENTRY: half at +4 s, other half at +15 s only if price >= 1.0/1.1/1.3/1.6x: 1.60/1.57/1.53/1.46 vs full at +4 s 1.82. Fast ramps (g>=1.3 by +15 s) do 2.4-2.7 but you cannot know that before paying the higher price. DISCARD.
9. OPERATOR ACCOUNTING EXIT (does the operator pull at a fixed reserve or price multiple?): reserve before pull p10..p90 = 3.3/5.3/10.5/19.7/34 ETH, price multiple at pull 1.3/1.9/2.9/5.3/9.7. Spread too wide for a fixed rule. Reserve exits (2-8 ETH) with fast entry: 1.13-1.73 (hold to R>=8: 1.88) vs tp3 1.82, tp5 1.87. DISCARD (tp3-5 is as good).
10. OPERATOR EOA (txfrom.db, 467 pools): 99 distinct first-swap EOAs, top 0xd2b941 57 pools, 0x381aa2 40, 0x55bbf8 35. Per EOA fast-entry mean (n 6-11 each): 0.82-2.51, fleet 1.60 vs singleton 1.42. n far too small. WAITING: ppdata #226 txfrom still being built (3,559 pools); re-run a10.py when all u100 pools are covered, test = walk-forward "previous 5 fast results of the same first-swap EOA" (kill if spread < 0.3).

Nothing ready for testmgr. One data request (dataeng, names). Honest net: FAST5 remains the only u100 edge; every new angle this run is flat.