# analyst2 idle run 30 (10 Oct 2026): USDG / unknown-venue focus, 10 iterations
Detail in /opt/crew/ideas/analyst2.md (run 30 block) and the ledger (#78-#86). Scripts: /opt/crew/work/analyst2/it31/.
Summary: nothing ready for testmgr. USDG v4 nohook runners are seeded caps and one-print jumps (71%); after 3% slippage plus fee the +66 s entry nets 0.3-0.6x. The stock-quoted 0x4e34 pools (731) are 88% dead. Live mc5: 4-day cap-band gradient is luck (25 days flat), partial TPs hurt, dust guard and coverage are fine. Ruin math: with 7% winners a 15-loss streak is routine (median longest streak 31 per 100 trades), bankroll >= 45 stakes for 99% over 100 trades. One data request: tx_from for the 199 0xcc pools (#484) to learn whether outsiders can sell.