# a2: v3 early-cap runners (miss ideas, 16 Oct) — board #2600
Why: of the missed 1M+ runners 9-15 Oct, most are v3 "organic" pools whose first cap was 2.5k-10k; mc5 (v4 only, 5-min cap) never sees them.
Data: /opt/sw/v3live.db, 6-15 Oct, 2834 pools with swaps. Replay: entry 15 s after the trigger swap (real next-swap price), exit 15 s after trigger, cost 7% total, mult capped at 30, rugs = price after the drop (no free exit). No outside-wallet sell sim yet.

## Idea A: v3 cap-cross 20-60k (hunt: enter 20-60k, age <=30 min, ride to 1M-20M)
Rule: first swap with cap >= $20k and pool age <= 1800 s, cap < $60k at entry, pool ETH after >= 1. Buy; exit when cap <= 0.6x entry or <= 50% below the peak (trailing), max hold 6 h.
Replay: n=724, mean 1.70x, lo80 1.61, median 1.08, halves 1.86/1.54, ex top-3 1.63; 101 of 724 touched 1M. Without the 60k cap and trail .65: n=778 mean 1.69, halves 1.95/1.43. Pool-ETH>=5 filter kills it (1.14): the edge is in smaller pools, so the sell-simulation must be checked first.
## Idea B: v3 fast doubling (hunt: confirm a runner early)
Rule: cap >= $20k, then cap reaches 2x within 180 s (age <= 2 h), pool ETH >= 1; enter at the 2x swap; same exit, trail 50%.
Replay: n=487, mean 1.31, lo80 1.23, halves 1.37/1.24, ex top-3 1.25.
## Killed in the same replay
Cap-cross 50k+: 1.0-1.2 (age 300 s, nb20 <1). Cross 100k: ~1.0. Cross 300k/500k: 0.8. Cross 1M (hunt 5-20M): 1.0-1.16, ex top-3 0.8, lo80 <0.9. Dip-reclaim after 100k/300k peak: 0.8-0.97. Min buys 20 before entry hurts.
## Risks / next
Not yet outside-wallet sellability; v3live creator is empty so a creator filter could not be replayed. Test manager: run A as the live code dry (rug gate on), B as second arm.

## Idea C (added 16 Oct, board #2670): v3 very-early cap-cross 10k (hunt: enter 10-30k within 5 min of birth, ride to 1M+)
Rule: first swap with cap >= $10k while pool age <= 300 s, entry cap < $30k, pool ETH after >= 1; entry 15 s later; exit cap <= 0.6x entry or 50% below peak, max 6 h; cost 7%.
Replay (v3live 6-15 Oct): n=384, mean 2.29x, lo80 2.08, median 1.02, ex top-3 2.14, halves 2.88/1.70 (edge fades in the newer half but stays well above 1.1); 104 of 384 touched 1M. Trail .65: mean 2.48. 5k cross (<=15k): n=347 mean 2.44.
Overlaps A (same venue, earlier trigger); run as a third arm, not alone. Sell-sim on outside wallets still needed.
## v4 miss classes (A1 native fee100 kit, hooked weth) - not replayable today
A1 native: 2x-confirm replay looks like 2.5x, but v4tape pools stop ~25 min after first swap: only 4 of 532 triggered pools have >=3 h tape, unresolved exits collapse the mean to 0.9-1.2. Wait for the extended tape (#561 covers it). H3000 weth: replay 8-14x is wash volume (ledger #544: unsellable); ignored.