# FW Analyst 2, round 3 (8 Oct 2026, evening Bangkok): new PP data, outside money test on everything

## Result in one line
On Robinhood v4 launches the average outside wallet gets back 0.67-0.70x of its ETH (2.3M positions, 5 Sep-7 Oct). Every v4 sub-market tested today fails the outside money test. No new idea goes to paper today.

## Killed today (with the outside money numbers)
| id | idea | outside money test |
|---|---|---|
| A2-FLIP (+GATE, FEAT, 180) | 10 s flip on launchpad 0x58daec... coins | pulled within 5 s after an outside buy 67-88%; outside positions 89% nothing back, mean 0.12x |
| A2-LOCK | LP-locked v4 pools (LP NFT sent to dead at mint, 593 pools) | no pulls, but outside positions 56% nothing back, mean 0.44x; every entry/hold rule < 1.0x since 22 Sep |
| A2-SIG | follow the "4 x 0.300 ETH within 2 s" sniper cluster (160 pools) | no reactive pulls (1 of 4,201), but outsiders in the same windows: 0.79x (0-10 s), 0.55x (10-20 s); profit only exists when exits are priced on the insiders' own sells |
| A2-COPY | copy winning wallets | winners picked on 5-21 Sep earned 0.88-1.01x on 22 Sep-7 Oct (market 0.70x); skill does not persist |
| A2-LATE, A2-V4MC5 | (killed earlier today) | - |

## What stands
1. Live mc5 (v3 WETH, +5 min, $250k-$1M): the only edge with real-money proof (live fills = model 1.0000, live 20x and 30x winners). Biggest lever = size (A2 v15 size curve).
2. A1-ADD (FW A1, stage 2 passed): same v3 coins as mc5. Needs the outside money test on v3, which needs tx.from per swap (request below).
3. Live test 2 (AI picker): in paper; outside money brief at fw/l2-outside-money-brief.md (first look: no rug-on-buy, but outsiders in the same coins averaged 0.47x).

## Infrastructure built (reuse for every future outside money test)
- /root/fwa2/edge/wallet_npools.pkl: wallet -> number of v4 pools traded (583,855 wallets); fleet = 20+ pools.
- /root/fwa2/edge/wpnl/<day>.jsonl: realized ETH in/out for every (wallet, pool) in every native-ETH v4 launch, 5 Sep-7 Oct.
- Scripts: wtape.py, walletpnl.py, walletskill.py, lockstudy2.py, sig.py, agg_sig.py, outside3-6.py.