# #748 Replay: entry at winner-linked early buyer, cap<=300k (analyst2, 10 Oct)
Script it44/w5.py (w4 with K and MAXP args). v3 fee100, v3hist tape returns (sl .5 / tp5, 4 h cap, entry +10 s after signal), 6 h label lag, wallets in > MAXP pools dropped, runner-weighted vs controls (W 7.4).
Mean multiple, no haircut (haircut ~ -0.15):
- K=1 linked buyer, MAXP10: cap<300k 1.87 (n=161, hc 1.7); cap<150k 2.03; cap>=150k 0.97 (dead). halves 1.72/1.59; boot5% (hc, all caps) 1.30; OOS 1.62.
- K=2, MAXP10: cap<300k 1.53; boot5% 1.05 (weaker, fewer signals).
- K=1, MAXP30: cap<300k 2.20 (n=405), boot5% 1.68, OOS 1.85, halves 2.04/1.94.
Verdict: analyst3 lift holds on tape returns but only when entry cap is small (median 30-55k): signal is "insider recognised early". Same edge family as WLINK (#732); K=1 gives ~2-3x the signals of K=3 at 1.9-2.2x. Entry cap gate <150k is key; >=150k is breakeven-negative.
Caveat: v3 only (v4 tape not in v3hist); 26 days, one regime.