# a3 miss patterns, 14 Oct (board #2402)
Data: misses.csv 7-13 Oct (140 tokens with ATH >= $1M), v3hist.db swaps (8630 v3 pools, 12 Sep - 14 Oct), births.db launcher.

## What the misses look like
- 45 of 140 are v3 pools (radar venue v3), median ATH $3.0M; cap_first only $2.5-10k, depth $30-60k at birth (VORTA, WISP, ZEVIO, swordcat, CLAUDIA, QI...). Status: about half "MISSED" (score below the line / cap over $1M at 5 min), half "NOT SEEN, never scored".
- v4 native/weth/usdg: 50+, many "jump" class (cap_first already 16-300M, not tradable as a runner: PONS, AAPL, BONER, HOOKR, STANDARD).
- Launcher join: births.db has no launcher for 89 of the 140 (61 NA + 28 nan). Only 2 of 140 sit on launcher 0x73991a25 (the biggest v3 launcher, 6086 pools). The big v3 misses are on many different launchers (0xcc110f4a, 0x2d2c762f, 0xef0ce9a9, 0xf924ccec, 0x762f2480...), one pool each. Launcher is therefore NOT the shared pattern; launcher coverage in births.db is the gap (ask dataeng).

## Bundle at launch (v3hist, 8630 v3 pools)
- Pools with >= 4 swaps in the first block reach $1M in ~30% of cases vs 4% for single-swap pools (n=572 vs 7395). Real, large lift.
- Replay, enter at birth+45 s if cap <= $100k, TP 5x / stop 0.5x, 10% fee: bb>=3 (3+ buys in first block) n=225 mean 1.32 lo80 1.21, 7/day; early half 1.41, late half 1.23; delay 20 s 1.43, 90 s 1.21, 180 s 1.15 (edge decays fast with entry delay).
- BUT it is carried by one launcher. Launcher 0x73991a25 bb>=3: n=76 mean 1.94, win 53%. The same launcher with bb<=2 shows n=2300 mean 2.24, win 71%: impossible for a real edge, so the replay is an artifact for this launcher (pool_eth_after is 0/NULL in v3hist for these pools; price steps up on every dust buy, a $10 fill is not proven). Outside that launcher: bb>=3 n=149 mean 1.01 win 16% = no edge.
- Verdict: NOT mature. The first-block bundle is a strong runner marker but I cannot turn it into a >=1.3x trade with the data we have (no depth, no eth_call sellability, rugs not separable).

## What would settle it (one job, not run: needs eth_call on 100s of pools)
1. dataeng: fill pool depth (ETH in pool) per swap in v3hist for launcher 0x73991a25 and launcher for the 89 NA tokens.
2. Then re-run bb>=3, entry <= 45 s, depth >= 2 ETH, sellability by eth_call at 5x. Scripts: mp1.py..mp4.py in /opt/crew/work/analyst3.

## Not done
First-minute buy pattern beyond block 0, creator history and launcher kit for the non-v3 misses: no time/data this run; creator history needs births.creator for NA tokens (same gap).