# Audit seed (A3-SEED first-print cap), 12 Oct, auditor
Verdict: NOT VERIFIED (FIX). Sellability not run (see below).

Numbers (arm S, /root/tm/seed/trades.csv):
- The "forward n 31" in the blocker is wrong: 27 of the 31 S rows are src=replay, only 4 are src=fwd.
- Replay 27: mean 1.20x. Forward 4: mean 0.55x, no winner. Forward n>=15 is required; not met.
- All 5 winners are the identical 4.65x TP fill (fixed take-profit), 26/31 trades below 1x, median 0.46x.
- Mean without top winner 1.00x, without top 3: 0.74x, without top 5: 0.44x. 80% band of the 31-mean: 0.76 to 1.48.
- Whole edge = 5 TP hits out of 31 (16%), threshold fitted in-sample, replay-only.
Checks: no look-ahead audit done earlier (audit-seed-a1mc-replay.md); outside sellers / eth_call sellability not done: pointless until forward n>=15 shows any edge.
Action: testmgr keep running to forward n=15; re-audit then. If forward mean < 1.0 at n=15 -> KILL. Fix the blocker text (counts replay as forward).