Paper test 2: 10s Flip

Buy a brand-new coin 10 seconds after its first trade, sell everything 60 seconds later. Paper money, $10 a trade, since 08 Oct 15:12 Bangkok. Updated 08 Oct 16:11 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.

Total P&L ($10 trades)
+$163.66
Trades done
29
28 up, 1 down
Average result
1.56x
per trade, after costs
Test progress
29 / 200
1.0 of 24 h
Pass bar (measured at $100, all five must hold)
1. Mean result at 60 s is 1.15x or more after costs, and the median is above 1.0xmean 1.54x, median 1.55x
2. Still above 1.0x without the 5 best trades1.46x
3. Unsellable + pulled + no quote is 25% of trades or less68%
4. Median time from first swap to our price is 14 s or less, and 70%+ of eligible coins entered10.3 s, 100% entered
5. Paper price vs real traders' prices on the same coins: median gap within 10%+1.3%

Grey means not enough trades yet to judge (30+ needed). Last 3 h: 1.54x average over 29 trades. Last 24 h: 1.54x average over 29 trades.

Could real money get these trades?
GMGN at entry (quote only, never a trade): 17 of 17 quoted (17 on our exact pool), answer in 1.2 s (median), asked 10.3 s after the first trade, price vs paper -1.0%
GMGN at the 60 s sell: 14 of 14 quoted (14 on our exact pool), answer in 1.2 s (median), asked 70.6 s after the first trade, price vs paper -1.0%
Self-signed path (our own wallet and contract, dry run: the real signed transaction, checked on chain, not sent): buys: 14 of 14 would go through, 14 match the paper fill exactly; sells: 14 of 15 would go through; sign + check takes 0.11 s

Not live: LIVE_FLIP not created. Bot wallet 0x45d61549b97add0d8e144b81bab837364ebb7e02 (0.0000 ETH), trader contract not deployed yet. GMGN's quote includes its 1% fee, so about -1% vs paper means the same price. Real money starts only when Ben funds the bot wallet and creates the live switch; then one $10 trade at a time, stopping for the day after 5 losses in a row or -$50.

Holding now

2 open: 0x09c2a0c7… (bought 16:10:46), 0xf9d5790f… (bought 16:10:56)

P&L over time ($10 trades, US dollars, Bangkok time)
-$13.09+$34.37+$81.83+$129.29+$176.7515:1215:2615:4015:5516:09
Every trade (newest first)
#CoinTypePool feePriced atWhy soldResult$10 P&L
290x94d91f80…custom1%10.3 ssold at 60 s1.16x+$1.60
280xc7d080d2…custom1%10.5 ssold at 60 s1.98x+$9.82
270x6266df0f…custom1%10.3 ssold at 60 s1.76x+$7.64
260xcbf12d72…custom1%10.3 ssold at 60 s1.43x+$4.28
250x70fd2455…custom1%10.3 ssold at 60 s1.40x+$4.04
240x4c27eb3f…custom1%10.3 ssold at 60 s2.13x+$11.26
230x14eae098…custom1%10.2 ssold at 60 s1.84x+$8.40
220xac34aa2d…custom1%10.2 ssold at 60 s1.15x+$1.54
210xda5abb31…custom1%10.2 spulled before exit0.00x-$10.00
200x38019954…custom1%10.4 ssold at 60 s1.55x+$5.53
190xcadd0bfd…custom0.05%10.2 ssold at 60 s1.84x+$8.36
180x95ada397…custom1%10.1 ssold at 60 s1.47x+$4.67
170x148ef155…custom1%10.1 ssold at 60 s1.43x+$4.25
160x3307f38d…custom1%10.6 ssold at 60 s1.71x+$7.08
150xd27761b7…custom1%10.3 ssold at 60 s1.57x+$5.70
140x240b04f8…custom1%10.2 ssold at 60 s1.32x+$3.16
130x2cce948e…custom1%10.1 ssold at 60 s1.79x+$7.89
120xcdecc94f…custom1%10.2 ssold at 60 s1.97x+$9.68
110x08750431…custom1%10.7 ssold at 60 s1.84x+$8.37
100xb250ba7a…custom0.05%10.4 ssold at 60 s1.48x+$4.81
90x63378fe3…custom1%10.6 ssold at 60 s1.35x+$3.50
80xe1f2ef87…custom1%10.3 ssold at 60 s1.92x+$9.16
70xe4882bd1…custom1%10.3 ssold at 60 s1.40x+$3.97
60xcb6cbb14…custom1%10.2 ssold at 60 s1.86x+$8.58
50x63c8ac7e…custom1%10.3 ssold at 60 s1.78x+$7.76
40xf3159c8e…custom1%10.2 ssold at 60 s1.33x+$3.33
30xee7f84bd…custom1%10.4 ssold at 60 s1.97x+$9.68
20x0bf70c14…custom1%10.2 ssold at 60 s1.68x+$6.75
10xa605ca8c…custom0.05%10.3 ssold at 60 s1.28x+$2.80

Coins seen but not traded: 44 not native ETH, 12 fee 2500, 12 hooked pool, 4 fee 883131, 1 fee 75000, 1 fee 988000, 1 fee 10179, 1 fee 9000, 1 fee 836798.

Prices are exact on-chain quotes through the real pool at that moment (checked to the wei against real trades), with GMGN's 1% fee and $0.05 gas on each side. If the team pulls the liquidity before our sell, or the sell cannot go through, the trade counts as a total loss. "Priced at" is seconds after the coin's first trade. Type: launchpad = the standard Robinhood launchpad factory, custom = anything else. Also recorded on every coin: the same trade at $100 and $500, and shadow sells at 30 s and 120 s.