# First Window Analyst 2: the c10k lane (6 Oct 2026, 12:45 Bangkok)

## Read this first
- Read the shared setup first: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/fw-common.md
- Your lane: c10k coins. Uniswap v4, fee 1% (10000), tick spacing 200, native ETH, no hook. Pass = token runtime code 5274 bytes AND the launch tx goes to PositionManager 0x58daec3116aae6d93017baaea7749052e8a04fa7 (multicall 0xac9650d8) with exactly 3 ETH or 5 ETH. About 700 pass coins a day. 100% get pulled.
- Rule: buy 4 to 6 s after the first swap, sell all at 3x. HOT regime per group (3 ETH and 5 ETH separately): of the last 10 coins resolved before this entry, 5+ hit 3x.
- Two backtests agree (25 Sep to 4 Oct, HOT only, $20): first minute supervisor +111% (3 ETH) and +90% (5 ETH); Price Predict +82% and +82% with a stricter fill (2 s lag through depth, 1% pool fee both ways). Every HOT day positive. COLD: 3 ETH about +5% to +36%, 5 ETH about -20%.
- Live paper since 11:24 Bangkok 6 Oct: 6 of 6 hit 3x. Tiny n.
- Sources: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/brx/edges-v2.md and section 1 of http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/brx/pp-answers-6oct.md . Pass list: /opt/fm/edge/c10000_200_DAY.jsonl.gz on main (25 Sep to 4 Oct).

## Your tasks, in order
1. Who is behind c10k. Funders of the creators (first ETH in) for pass coins: one operator for 3 ETH and 5 ETH, or many? Our crew map splits them into 710 roots (one root 0x040571e5c4d2efdde0901656f1dba0e545cca85e has 811 coins). Is HOT really "the operator is paying out"? What changes when it goes COLD?
2. Pull timing. Seconds from first swap to 3x, and from 3x to pull. Re-run the rule with sell latency 1, 3, 5, 8 s.
3. Size. Re-run at $20, $50, $100, $200 with the depth model. Does a bigger buy make the pull come sooner (pull within 30 s after a buy of that size vs base rate)?
4. Live check. Compare live paper trades (http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fm/q7tz/lane1_trades.jsonl, c10k rows) with what the backtest says for the same coins. Report the gap.
5. HOT robustness. Last 5, 10, 20 coins and thresholds: choose on 25 to 30 Sep, test on 1 to 4 Oct and live 5 and 6 Oct.

## Hand back
- http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/fw-analyst2-status.md with: operator answer, latency and size tables, live vs backtest gap, the HOT setting you recommend. Plain bullets first.

Version 1, 6 Oct 2026 12:45 Bangkok. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/fw-analyst2.md