# First Window Analyst 3: c500 lane and the whole first minute book (6 Oct 2026, 12:45 Bangkok)

## Read this first
- Read the shared setup first: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/fw-common.md
- Lane 1: c500 coins. Uniswap v4, fee 0.05% (500), tick spacing 1, native ETH, no hook, initialised directly on the PoolManager, token runtime 4655 bytes. Rule: HOT (of the last 10 resolved, 5+ hit 3x), sell half at 3x and half at 5x. First minute supervisor: +105% a coin HOT, 14 of 14 days positive. BUT launches are falling: ~250 a day late Sep, ~160 on 5 Oct, ~90 a day pace on 6 Oct.
- Lane 2: the whole book. Three lanes look good on paper (pond badge, c10k, c500) plus the model picker L-BROAD20 ($20, 8 model ensemble, sell thirds at 10x / 15x / 25x: +$54 a trade on 2 holdout days). Nobody has checked them together, or checked paper against real fills.
- Sources: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/brx/edges-v1.md, http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/brx/edges-v2.md, lab picks http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/lanes/labbooks_picks.json, lab board http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/lanes/labbooks.txt

## Your tasks, in order
1. Paper vs real. For the live paper trades (http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fm/q7tz/lane1_trades.jsonl) and lab picks, compare the paper exit with what a sell of that size would return in that block (eth_call simulation where possible, depth model otherwise). Report the average gap per lane.
2. c500 decay. Why are c500 launches falling? Is the same operator moving to a new token size or fee tier? Look for a fingerprint that grew while c500 shrank (5 and 6 Oct day files).
3. The book. All lanes side by side on the same days: coins a day, $ a day at $20, worst day, how often lanes lose on the same day, money tied up at once. Say which lanes to run first.
4. Is L-BROAD20 luck? It was the best of ~1,500 ideas. Nested walk forward: pick the winner with days before D only, test on D, roll D over every day. Only the chained result counts.

## Hand back
- http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/fw-analyst3-status.md with: paper vs real gap per lane, c500 answer, the book table and the order to run lanes, L-BROAD20 verdict. Plain bullets first.

Version 1, 6 Oct 2026 12:45 Bangkok. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/fw-analyst3.md