# J-001 early exits: fills or exits? (FW Analyst 1)

## READ THIS FIRST (7 Oct 17:45 Bangkok)
- **Answer: for the coins we can actually pick at +10/+20 s, the gap is the COINS, not the exits.** Best early exit set on arm (a): half B without top 3 $27 (+10 s) and $46 (+20 s) vs $82 for +5 min with its best exits. No exit set closes it.
- On the hindsight set (the +5 min winners bought early, look-ahead, upper bound only) a wider stop does close the no-top-3 gap: stop 0.3x armed after 3 min gives $84 at +10 s and stop 0.3x gives $93 at +20 s, vs $82 at +5 min. But at $1k early fills still cost about $1,000 to $2,000 a day ($12,417 and $13,314 vs $14,359): thin first-seconds pools.
- So arms (b) to (d) would need early exits (stop 0.3x) AND a coin picker that finds the +5 min winners at +10 s. The crew flags could not (FW-021). Only the PP score is left to try.
- Trail 50% off peak kills every set: it sells runners in the first wick (+5 min $10 B drops from $164 to $94).
- Side finding for live mc5: stop 0.3x instead of 0.5x is +$10 a day at $10 and +$199 at $1k on half B, and worst 3 days improve from minus $90 to minus $56. But half A is flat (minus $2), so it does not pass both halves. Logged, not proposed.

Same uncut v3 universe and lab.py fills as entry-ladder.md. Exits changed only. +5 min control gets the same exit sets, so each row compares like with like. Half B (25 Sep to 6 Oct) unless marked A.

| set | entry | exit set | n B | B $10 | B no top 3 | B worst 3 days | B $1k | A $10 | A no top 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hindsight set (+5 min BUY coins), UPPER BOUND | +5 min | E0 base: stop 0.5x from fill, 4 h | 149 | +164 | +71 | -90 | +14160 | +60 | +10 |
|  | +5 min | E1 stop 0.5x armed after 3 min | 149 | +161 | +68 | -96 | +13851 | +60 | +10 |
|  | +5 min | E2 stop 0.3x | 149 | +174 | +82 | -56 | +14359 | +58 | +9 |
|  | +5 min | E3 stop 0.3x armed after 3 min | 149 | +173 | +81 | -58 | +14253 | +59 | +9 |
|  | +5 min | E4 base + trail 50% off peak (from 1.5x) | 149 | +94 | +13 | -99 | +7944 | -1 | -5 |
|  | +5 min | E5 stop 0.3x after 3 min + trail 50% | 149 | +96 | +15 | -132 | +8067 | -3 | -7 |
|  | +10 s | E0 base: stop 0.5x from fill, 4 h | 145 | +114 | +57 | -52 | +9354 | +122 | +24 |
|  | +10 s | E1 stop 0.5x armed after 3 min | 145 | +119 | +61 | -55 | +9768 | +122 | +24 |
|  | +10 s | E2 stop 0.3x | 145 | +143 | +78 | -48 | +11933 | +121 | +23 |
|  | +10 s | E3 stop 0.3x armed after 3 min | 145 | +148 | +84 | -48 | +12417 | +121 | +23 |
|  | +10 s | E4 base + trail 50% off peak (from 1.5x) | 145 | +333 | +26 | -88 | +6171 | +10 | +2 |
|  | +10 s | E5 stop 0.3x after 3 min + trail 50% | 145 | +342 | +34 | -101 | +6884 | +10 | +1 |
|  | +20 s | E0 base: stop 0.5x from fill, 4 h | 146 | +132 | +71 | -61 | +10772 | +121 | +23 |
|  | +20 s | E1 stop 0.5x armed after 3 min | 146 | +131 | +71 | -64 | +10702 | +121 | +23 |
|  | +20 s | E2 stop 0.3x | 146 | +160 | +93 | -58 | +13314 | +119 | +21 |
|  | +20 s | E3 stop 0.3x armed after 3 min | 146 | +160 | +93 | -58 | +13314 | +119 | +21 |
|  | +20 s | E4 base + trail 50% off peak (from 1.5x) | 146 | +64 | +12 | -103 | +5987 | +23 | +5 |
|  | +20 s | E5 stop 0.3x after 3 min + trail 50% | 146 | +71 | +19 | -122 | +6551 | +22 | +4 |
| arm (a) frozen band | +5 min | E0 base: stop 0.5x from fill, 4 h | 149 | +164 | +71 | -90 | +14160 | +60 | +10 |
|  | +5 min | E1 stop 0.5x armed after 3 min | 149 | +161 | +68 | -96 | +13851 | +60 | +10 |
|  | +5 min | E2 stop 0.3x | 149 | +174 | +82 | -56 | +14359 | +58 | +9 |
|  | +5 min | E3 stop 0.3x armed after 3 min | 149 | +173 | +81 | -58 | +14253 | +59 | +9 |
|  | +5 min | E4 base + trail 50% off peak (from 1.5x) | 149 | +94 | +13 | -99 | +7944 | -1 | -5 |
|  | +5 min | E5 stop 0.3x after 3 min + trail 50% | 149 | +96 | +15 | -132 | +8067 | -3 | -7 |
|  | +10 s | E0 base: stop 0.5x from fill, 4 h | 242 | +162 | +23 | -221 | +10082 | +155 | +34 |
|  | +10 s | E1 stop 0.5x armed after 3 min | 242 | +160 | +21 | -270 | +9986 | +179 | +57 |
|  | +10 s | E2 stop 0.3x | 242 | +166 | +23 | -274 | +10341 | +149 | +28 |
|  | +10 s | E3 stop 0.3x armed after 3 min | 242 | +169 | +27 | -279 | +10734 | +174 | +52 |
|  | +10 s | E4 base + trail 50% off peak (from 1.5x) | 242 | +26 | -27 | -211 | +1703 | +2 | -19 |
|  | +10 s | E5 stop 0.3x after 3 min + trail 50% | 242 | +17 | -36 | -249 | +713 | -2 | -23 |
|  | +20 s | E0 base: stop 0.5x from fill, 4 h | 229 | +181 | +42 | -192 | +11852 | +129 | +29 |
|  | +20 s | E1 stop 0.5x armed after 3 min | 229 | +177 | +39 | -204 | +11510 | +178 | +75 |
|  | +20 s | E2 stop 0.3x | 229 | +185 | +46 | -259 | +12167 | +148 | +47 |
|  | +20 s | E3 stop 0.3x armed after 3 min | 229 | +185 | +46 | -262 | +12206 | +173 | +71 |
|  | +20 s | E4 base + trail 50% off peak (from 1.5x) | 229 | +31 | -21 | -215 | +2241 | -1 | -9 |
|  | +20 s | E5 stop 0.3x after 3 min + trail 50% | 229 | +21 | -31 | -268 | +1280 | -1 | -9 |

- hindsight set (+5 min BUY coins), +10 s: gap to +5 min with base exits (B no top 3) -14; best early exit set E3 gives +84 vs best +5 min exit set E2 +82 -> EXITS EXPLAIN THE GAP (early buy needs its own exits)
- hindsight set (+5 min BUY coins), +20 s: gap to +5 min with base exits (B no top 3) +0; best early exit set E2 gives +93 vs best +5 min exit set E2 +82 -> EXITS EXPLAIN THE GAP (early buy needs its own exits)
- arm (a) frozen band, +10 s: gap to +5 min with base exits (B no top 3) -48; best early exit set E3 gives +27 vs best +5 min exit set E2 +82 -> gap stays (fills, not exits)
- arm (a) frozen band, +20 s: gap to +5 min with base exits (B no top 3) -29; best early exit set E2 gives +46 vs best +5 min exit set E2 +82 -> gap stays (fills, not exits)

Ledger: FW-022. Version: v1, 7 Oct 2026 17:45 Bangkok, FW Analyst 1. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/lab/j001-exits.md