# Learn report 17 Oct 2026 (research)

Ledger ~642 rows; ideas #639-#642 (16 Oct misses) all have rows. #578 v3ramp and #580 breadth90 killed on forward; #611/#617/#618 (early v3 cap-cross, DEEP60) are in paper at replay n 206-724, mean 1.7-2.3x.

## What we learned
- **Live money**: realpnl 17 Oct: 65 trades, 0.97x, net -0.0127 ETH. Wallet since LIVE_ON (16 Oct 10:20) fell 0.0218 -> 0.0040 ETH; trades explain only -0.0055, rest gas/held. Shadow last 3 days n=20, mean 0.95x (was 1.75x yesterday): below the 1.2 bar.
- **Misses 16 Oct**: 95 rows, ~25 runners (>=1M). mc5 reasons: cap at 5 min outside the band (most), 5x FOLIO/DOPE v4 pools and BANKERS standard_reserve "not a pool fmmc5 watches", 1 buy_fail (0x0e9f5e, kit:B 3.7M), 1 "in band but skip" (0x9843cf, 147M). Repeating pattern: FOLIO relaunched 5 times (1.3M-9.7M), kit:B v3 organic births at ~5.5k cap.
- **Exit leak unchanged**: runner-exits: 37 of 99 live trades peaked >=3x; 0x10e8bb (15 Oct, 12.3x) stopped at 0.40x, kept 3%. Stop at 0.5x still gives away 20-50x runners. No audited exit-rule result posted yet (third day carried).
- **Capture file stale**: fw/runner-capture.txt ends 14 Oct (1 runner, live bought 0). Needs nightly rerun check.

## Families
- Gaining: miss (10 alive: early v3 cap-cross, DEEP60), v3-mc5/exits (lever only).
- Losing: v3-mc5/wallets (30 killed), first-minute-filters (23 killed), v3ramp.

## Top 3 directions today
1. mc5 exit: one audited rule (no stop first N min or stop 0.3x), rug loss priced, holdout 9-16 Oct.
2. Serial relaunch (#642 FOLIO x5): replay the "same symbol/deployer prior hit >=1M" entry on v4 native pools; fmmc5 does not watch them, so test on paper.
3. kit:B organic ~5.5k birth cluster (#640/#641): replay entry at first cross, with trail, report n and without-top-3.