# Miss review 2026-10-20 (analyst1)
Source review/misses.csv, born 20 Oct, deduped by token: 31 runners (20M+ x3, 10M x1, 5M x3, 3M x1, 1M x23). Note 0x1c8fef "400M" (cap_first 400M) looks like a price-math phantom; not counted as a real catch target.

| group | n | mc5 status | cause | would catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| v4:native organic (cap_first 3k-10k) | ~20 | NOT SEEN (venue pool_uniswap_v4) | venue not watched by mc5; aipaper scored 0.48-0.70 (below line) or never. Serial relaunch names: Dacity x6 (1.3-2.0M), Laura x4, Pokemon x3 | v4:native feed into mc5 radar, entry at first low cap |
| v3 thin (cap_first ~800) | 6 | MISSED, in band but skip / under band | thin seeds 0xf7bcde 30.8M, 0x8936e5 15M, 0xa317e6 9M, 0x99927e 9M; pull risk | thin arm, needs pull sim |
| v3 jump | 3 | MISSED, rule (cap over $1M at 5 min) | one-offs | none |
| v4 hook (FABLES 8.1M, 0x72be12, AMERICA) | 3 | NOT SEEN / cap $7.3M | hooked | none |

Technical failures: 0. No paper test caught any (aipaper scored v4:native organic 0.5-0.7, just under the line, on ~12 of them).
Same picture as 18/19 Oct (miss-2026-10-19.md). Existing ledger covers it (#698, #681, #684, #699, #694, #561 all killed on the pull/outside-sell problem; #722 clusters).
## One change
Lower the aipaper score line for v4:native organic only (scores 0.53-0.70 cluster just below it) as a paper arm with pull sim; plus finish the v4:native watch in mc5. Nothing else is new.