BUNDLE300 bundled launch at $300k
Analyst 2 · bundle >$34k, entry at $300-400k cross · arms A/B/C vs unbundled baseline · paper, $10 a trade, since 10 Oct · idea #447 · updated 10 Oct 10:10 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
STOPPED: these paper numbers are not reachable with real money
trades.csv has group column (big/small/none): judge group=big vs none; registry totals mix groups; Replay has only 1 big bundle (v3live starts 6 Oct); forward from 10 Oct 02:00 UTC; Peak/path: stop uses swap prices, rug after cross = 0 via pull
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: mean < 1.3x over 30 closed or bundled arm below baseline. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$16.85
Trades done
30
6 up, 24 down
Best trade
3.4x
Exit rule shown
A
sell all at $1M
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A sell all at $1M | 30 | 1.06x | 6 | 0 | 24 | +$16.85 |
| C trail 50% from peak after $1M | 30 | 0.92x | 5 | 0 | 24 | -$23.25 |
| B half $1M, rest $5M | 30 | 0.85x | 1 | 0 | 24 | -$44.46 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0xcf2c8713144d9b640cbe589e1ae3ced297413554 | 10 Oct 07:37 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.4%) -$5.44 |
| 29 | 0xf25c80d5152693184bdbfb7ac219034993e232ee | 10 Oct 01:18 | $10 | stop | 0.48x (-51.9%) -$5.19 |
| 28 | 0x6d6ea481d774569935261ba1c6d533e2b6669ed8 | 09 Oct 23:10 | $10 | tp | 3.10x (+210.4%) +$21.04 |
| 27 | 0x2509d684d8a6bf52b8a1a9a0144b353727c75a72 | 09 Oct 18:42 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-52.7%) -$5.27 |
| 26 | 0xe538bce790e986cb0180a4aacf7c29413c46992b | 08 Oct 23:18 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 25 | 0x4a13b0ebf3ca28e2ca84b615a6ef4be0cca00315 | 08 Oct 21:57 | $10 | time | 0.97x (-3.0%) -$0.30 |
| 24 | 0x26ec6e92930c78f855c082841d03ce22c51dc4ad | 08 Oct 19:19 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 23 | 0x4c4cdbc851e2c9b0cdea6039c4bc75d2fa2b3e45 | 08 Oct 16:50 | $10 | stop | 0.43x (-56.6%) -$5.66 |
| 22 | 0x4090ed5bbb892f8bcf9cf5be7e42c5a935d05f4a | 08 Oct 11:48 | $10 | stop | 0.48x (-52.3%) -$5.23 |
| 21 | 0x58c684d51d184427521555e5fd8d2cd6c1df0798 | 08 Oct 08:37 | $10 | tp | 3.17x (+217.3%) +$21.73 |
| 20 | 0x9cb36ed7c33221cbf2062a07e2aa6da7a81b8241 | 08 Oct 08:19 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-52.6%) -$5.26 |
| 19 | 0xc0ef16fa4fd7fca6f1e5daffa8b1b396c81f829f | 08 Oct 07:11 | $10 | stop | 0.41x (-58.8%) -$5.88 |
| 18 | 0x4dad084ab74c22191b1fb7aef46df80be3e14e58 | 08 Oct 05:49 | $10 | stop | 0.48x (-52.2%) -$5.22 |
| 17 | 0x7e98a8121fa3454f0943ec7b8518a5c67b030ef9 | 08 Oct 05:01 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-53.8%) -$5.38 |
| 16 | 0xd7b223455fb009f9e31b1200355aa3b557b80745 | 08 Oct 02:41 | $10 | stop | 0.48x (-52.3%) -$5.23 |
| 15 | 0x5183b2850bb856c9ea714e284eb18904284fa413 | 08 Oct 01:13 | $10 | tp | 3.28x (+227.6%) +$22.76 |
| 14 | 0x6c4725e4ce86064c6c10e7d0fbc0fc1b630b3ff2 | 08 Oct 00:39 | $10 | stop | 0.41x (-59.3%) -$5.93 |
| 13 | 0x9312e871f7a1b4c0c7dd684705a64ed1215a7eec | 07 Oct 23:15 | $10 | tp | 3.29x (+228.5%) +$22.85 |
| 12 | 0x7fcbd824d7c5d4d78a8144672180ed55196eaf94 | 07 Oct 21:12 | $10 | tp | 2.76x (+176.4%) +$17.64 |
| 11 | 0xddefc8467c9b77e3f2c1525e0cb0f453e4408fc0 | 07 Oct 08:31 | $10 | tp | 3.42x (+242.4%) +$24.24 |
| 10 | 0x83a08cf7005bf6bf3febdbf5010bbd132f54a0bb | 07 Oct 07:38 | $10 | time | 0.97x (-3.0%) -$0.30 |
| 9 | 0x88dc5fdd35b67e81d4df323c198f15eb48fc0dce | 07 Oct 05:22 | $10 | stop | 0.48x (-51.9%) -$5.19 |
| 8 | 0x41b8c2a81c0a1fd801b547e7f6bdfa2a39e12882 | 07 Oct 01:00 | $10 | stop | 0.44x (-56.4%) -$5.64 |
| 7 | 0xb845e4e67a8578bfda2eff9b0fb31458538678bf | 06 Oct 23:23 | $10 | stop | 0.45x (-54.8%) -$5.48 |
| 6 | 0xda852c143bc03e117e6f3dc340969ba84f5f6811 | 06 Oct 22:33 | $10 | time | 0.97x (-3.0%) -$0.30 |
| 5 | 0xf9689f1e92c0a3010f5f1d9770a32ee03168dae8 | 06 Oct 19:24 | $10 | stop | 0.48x (-51.7%) -$5.17 |
| 4 | 0x92a4f531f82e1440d6e349bbc2ed42ba389e013f | 06 Oct 12:50 | $10 | time | 0.95x (-5.1%) -$0.51 |
| 3 | 0xa7b6a6a6ba5c7bfe5235cae718dd7a9138599f6f | 06 Oct 12:35 | $10 | time | 0.96x (-3.5%) -$0.35 |
| 2 | 0x6c0f032f19a121b1767fdc71ae35d4db0084e999 | 06 Oct 12:33 | $10 | stop | 0.48x (-52.2%) -$5.22 |
| 1 | 0xbba52340a80c0aaaf5aee222af8b5646806e9bb8 | 06 Oct 12:33 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-52.6%) -$5.26 |
Full Test Manager report
# BUNDLE300: bundled launch (>$34k) entered at $300-400k vs unbundled baseline (A2 #447) paper test (Test Manager) - 10 Oct 03:10 UTC
Spec: fw/a2-bundle-entry-10oct.md. v3live.db, entry first swap 3 s after the $300k cross (cap <=400k, cross within 15 min of launch). Arms: A sell all at $1M | B half $1M, rest $5M | C trail 50% from peak after $1M; stop 0.5x, pull = 0, 6 h time exit; 1%+2% per side. Replay covers v3live history (6 Oct on); forward = launches after 10 Oct 02:00 UTC.
- Flag source bundle_launch (unlisted pools in table seen = unbundled; last bundle_launch row launch 08 Oct 09:50 UTC). Swaps jumping >30x vs previous dropped as glitches. Open 3; skipped {'never 300k': 1199, 'cap>400k at entry': 127, 'no swap after cross': 15, 'cross >15min after launch': 45, 'not yet checked by bundle.py (flag unknown)': 20}
- bundle >$34k arm A: replay+fwd n 1, mean 0.95x, <1x 1, zeros 0, >=3x 0 | forward only n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0
- bundle >$34k arm B: replay+fwd n 1, mean 0.95x, <1x 1, zeros 0, >=3x 0 | forward only n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0
- bundle >$34k arm C: replay+fwd n 1, mean 0.95x, <1x 1, zeros 0, >=3x 0 | forward only n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0
- bundle <=$34k arm A: replay+fwd n 6, mean 0.93x, <1x 5, zeros 0, >=3x 0 | forward only n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0
- bundle <=$34k arm B: replay+fwd n 6, mean 0.74x, <1x 5, zeros 0, >=3x 0 | forward only n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0
- bundle <=$34k arm C: replay+fwd n 6, mean 1.03x, <1x 5, zeros 0, >=3x 1 | forward only n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0
- unbundled baseline arm A: replay+fwd n 23, mean 1.09x, <1x 18, zeros 2, >=3x 5 | forward only n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0
- unbundled baseline arm B: replay+fwd n 23, mean 0.88x, <1x 18, zeros 2, >=3x 1 | forward only n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0
- unbundled baseline arm C: replay+fwd n 23, mean 0.89x, <1x 18, zeros 2, >=3x 1 | forward only n 0, mean 0.00x, <1x 0, zeros 0, >=3x 0
- Kill (A2): mean < 1.3x over 30 closed or any bundled arm below baseline. Caveat: peaks known from tape, path-dependent stop; sellability to outside money unproven. Paper only.