conc658

v3 cap 20-60k cross, <15 signers or top buyer>35%, trail .75 · paper, $10 a trade, since 18 Oct · idea #658 · updated 18 Oct 12:41 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.

Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven

Waiting for: replay 1.00x n369 median .88; fwd n15 needed; needs outside-wallet sell sim

Still open:

Paper run, no real money

Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: fwd mean<1.0 at n30. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.

Total P&L
-$49.07
Trades done
92
31 up, 61 down
Best trade
4.8x
Exit rule shown
Q
trail 0.6x/ off-peak, 6h, pull=0x, cost 1%+2%/side

Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 279 trades, mean 1.02x, +$59.18 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.

P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)

Each step is a trade with exit rule Q, numbered in time order.

-$60-$40-$20$0trade 1 at 16 Oct 17:32 0.00x -$10.00trade 2 at 16 Oct 18:40 1.17x +$1.72trade 3 at 16 Oct 18:55 0.70x -$3.03trade 4 at 16 Oct 19:04 1.04x +$0.38trade 5 at 16 Oct 19:04 0.68x -$3.22trade 6 at 16 Oct 19:32 0.68x -$3.23trade 7 at 16 Oct 20:18 0.96x -$0.39trade 8 at 16 Oct 20:53 0.85x -$1.45trade 9 at 16 Oct 22:16 1.76x +$7.58trade 10 at 16 Oct 23:19 0.00x -$10.00trade 11 at 16 Oct 23:22 2.37x +$13.68trade 12 at 17 Oct 00:19 1.13x +$1.34trade 13 at 17 Oct 01:15 1.44x +$4.43trade 14 at 17 Oct 01:27 1.58x +$5.84trade 15 at 17 Oct 01:35 0.72x -$2.76trade 16 at 17 Oct 01:49 1.83x +$8.35trade 17 at 17 Oct 02:04 0.95x -$0.45trade 18 at 17 Oct 02:05 0.00x -$10.00trade 19 at 17 Oct 02:10 0.00x -$10.00trade 20 at 17 Oct 02:33 0.83x -$1.72trade 21 at 17 Oct 03:22 0.91x -$0.88trade 22 at 17 Oct 03:55 0.92x -$0.77trade 23 at 17 Oct 05:03 0.75x -$2.53trade 24 at 17 Oct 05:11 0.79x -$2.10trade 25 at 17 Oct 05:38 0.83x -$1.69trade 26 at 17 Oct 06:07 0.65x -$3.55trade 27 at 17 Oct 06:53 0.88x -$1.18trade 28 at 17 Oct 07:19 0.72x -$2.84trade 29 at 17 Oct 07:38 0.85x -$1.49trade 30 at 17 Oct 07:40 0.69x -$3.05trade 31 at 17 Oct 07:48 0.00x -$10.00trade 32 at 17 Oct 10:28 0.90x -$1.04trade 33 at 17 Oct 10:32 0.97x -$0.33trade 34 at 17 Oct 15:13 0.00x -$10.00trade 35 at 17 Oct 15:54 0.82x -$1.84trade 36 at 17 Oct 16:00 0.65x -$3.47trade 37 at 17 Oct 16:40 0.74x -$2.57trade 38 at 17 Oct 16:46 1.28x +$2.77trade 39 at 17 Oct 18:06 0.89x -$1.14trade 40 at 17 Oct 18:51 1.05x +$0.53trade 41 at 17 Oct 18:53 1.35x +$3.51trade 42 at 17 Oct 19:17 2.02x +$10.21trade 43 at 17 Oct 19:27 0.83x -$1.72trade 44 at 17 Oct 19:33 0.00x -$10.00trade 45 at 17 Oct 19:38 1.12x +$1.20trade 46 at 17 Oct 19:39 0.80x -$1.97trade 47 at 17 Oct 19:53 0.90x -$1.05trade 48 at 17 Oct 20:36 1.62x +$6.22trade 49 at 17 Oct 21:00 0.90x -$0.96trade 50 at 17 Oct 21:01 2.51x +$15.13trade 51 at 17 Oct 21:22 0.99x -$0.09trade 52 at 17 Oct 21:43 0.65x -$3.50trade 53 at 17 Oct 21:51 1.35x +$3.49trade 54 at 17 Oct 21:55 0.80x -$2.04trade 55 at 17 Oct 22:09 1.04x +$0.42trade 56 at 17 Oct 22:09 1.10x +$1.04trade 57 at 17 Oct 22:55 1.21x +$2.13trade 58 at 17 Oct 23:24 1.05x +$0.51trade 59 at 17 Oct 23:57 1.47x +$4.69trade 60 at 18 Oct 00:14 0.00x -$10.00trade 61 at 18 Oct 00:24 0.81x -$1.92trade 62 at 18 Oct 00:36 0.00x -$10.00trade 63 at 18 Oct 00:41 0.00x -$10.00trade 64 at 18 Oct 00:59 1.70x +$6.97trade 65 at 18 Oct 01:01 1.43x +$4.30trade 66 at 18 Oct 01:26 0.00x -$10.00trade 67 at 18 Oct 01:37 0.85x -$1.50trade 68 at 18 Oct 01:51 1.90x +$8.98trade 69 at 18 Oct 02:04 1.33x +$3.32trade 70 at 18 Oct 02:12 2.25x +$12.46trade 71 at 18 Oct 02:44 2.12x +$11.17trade 72 at 18 Oct 03:25 0.83x -$1.69trade 73 at 18 Oct 03:40 1.55x +$5.52trade 74 at 18 Oct 04:19 0.77x -$2.29trade 75 at 18 Oct 04:23 1.47x +$4.70trade 76 at 18 Oct 04:34 0.17x -$8.26trade 77 at 18 Oct 04:50 0.50x -$5.03trade 78 at 18 Oct 04:54 0.71x -$2.90trade 79 at 18 Oct 05:08 4.79x +$37.94trade 80 at 18 Oct 06:01 0.76x -$2.37trade 81 at 18 Oct 06:25 0.64x -$3.65trade 82 at 18 Oct 06:30 0.60x -$4.03trade 83 at 18 Oct 06:34 0.55x -$4.46trade 84 at 18 Oct 06:37 0.92x -$0.78trade 85 at 18 Oct 08:02 0.81x -$1.85trade 86 at 18 Oct 09:37 0.00x -$10.00trade 87 at 18 Oct 10:42 0.57x -$4.30trade 88 at 18 Oct 11:12 0.82x -$1.81trade 89 at 18 Oct 12:22 0.38x -$6.23trade 90 at 18 Oct 12:24 0.13x -$8.68trade 91 at 18 Oct 12:28 1.22x +$2.18trade 92 at 18 Oct 12:30 0.80x -$1.9817:2204:1415:0501:5712:49
Every trade (exit rule Q)
#PoolTimeInWhy soldResult
920x388c66021b76b0323d676c2fa1538453a888944f18 Oct 12:30$10trail0.80x (-19.8%)
-$1.98
910x1774f28901f7d32548cc1636eabbc32eafb41bbc18 Oct 12:28$10trail1.22x (+21.8%)
+$2.18
900x4ff7d2f1dbc590cbe53e6f57b563e4afd7d5b9ce18 Oct 12:24$10trail0.13x (-86.8%)
-$8.68
890x1208607c2186428794a436e2ad975c1affa28bad18 Oct 12:22$10trail0.38x (-62.3%)
-$6.23
880x774c6694dbf1ba9cb6bf52c4a7eef32bdb1b7ce918 Oct 11:12$10trail0.82x (-18.1%)
-$1.81
870x334c1497b2a7f4207455947b83647a175f1acb7218 Oct 10:42$10trail0.57x (-43.0%)
-$4.30
860x83fc7af14053902f4791f6cbbce6d7f7fcb9266f18 Oct 09:37$10pull0.00x (-100.0%)
-$10.00
850xb8c9ad15b4c399fc57ddfd699d77bcaa89e4c3f718 Oct 08:02$10trail0.81x (-18.5%)
-$1.85
840x2efd42117778760638e3c73b68732ef75da0bfd818 Oct 06:37$10trail0.92x (-7.8%)
-$0.78
830x95132e10b3af68018c6129ea716471a22d890efc18 Oct 06:34$10trail0.55x (-44.6%)
-$4.46
820xb8a261e65879cfc49f5251bff457bd88d8a2d3f118 Oct 06:30$10trail0.60x (-40.3%)
-$4.03
810xa512cd41251cf26af7af57280ce7126db6104b4c18 Oct 06:25$10trail0.64x (-36.5%)
-$3.65
800x391f161781ae906c7bef000a824c3cefb0753cf118 Oct 06:01$10trail0.76x (-23.7%)
-$2.37
790x9407d7426dc045dc66a28041083c3895fc7fe7a518 Oct 05:08$10trail4.79x (+379.4%)
+$37.94
780x0304a03a33af85acc042204f263dd1a1a69cc3d518 Oct 04:54$10trail0.71x (-29.0%)
-$2.90
770x0e5a8ae81e0add2edbb9b16b388abb06365ac95618 Oct 04:50$10trail0.50x (-50.3%)
-$5.03
760x967bd72d823d328aa7e7b3904f2b19e1b41af71618 Oct 04:34$10trail0.17x (-82.6%)
-$8.26
750xbc3c8ddc3c7c3338dbce92e30e8adfbc138aa06718 Oct 04:23$10trail1.47x (+47.0%)
+$4.70
740x92f6d5b0d1b31b31c3aa951be91444386c44ba1f18 Oct 04:19$10trail0.77x (-22.9%)
-$2.29
730x7ffc6478e8772b7b9920f5b79e65291859fa386618 Oct 03:40$10trail1.55x (+55.2%)
+$5.52
720xf43a347151d2e11695f3c08cdb33220b02424d1018 Oct 03:25$10trail0.83x (-16.9%)
-$1.69
710x7e3fb862ad3f0837c6711d7a3b8f7641f345f48b18 Oct 02:44$10trail2.12x (+111.7%)
+$11.17
700x2238cfc8b21056062b45d04b5dd6864f75096f5718 Oct 02:12$10trail2.25x (+124.6%)
+$12.46
690xa9a7b7ae5156bcf2aa1b5b624e2acb359aa3306718 Oct 02:04$10trail1.33x (+33.2%)
+$3.32
680xb2a419fb3ec582ee488a25488b0c89f1b4ca8ea218 Oct 01:51$10trail1.90x (+89.8%)
+$8.98
670x3eabe0ae2d11d2f87a55af1205f6dd7dbc52da1018 Oct 01:37$10trail0.85x (-15.0%)
-$1.50
660x17db23b4c3c19927f3ad15560eda3b67f2fd0a0618 Oct 01:26$10pull0.00x (-100.0%)
-$10.00
650x136dfa720480f5c4b2c587807bc38329864ce61d18 Oct 01:01$10trail1.43x (+43.0%)
+$4.30
640x006160e029429a8437ae0cbfd3b0bd5b235344d118 Oct 00:59$10trail1.70x (+69.7%)
+$6.97
630x7bead11eda36890059abdb571cf73da9b531f26918 Oct 00:41$10pull0.00x (-100.0%)
-$10.00
620x15acf87a6ad25605259e2ea76cfc6aa14d72d10818 Oct 00:36$10pull0.00x (-100.0%)
-$10.00
610xd5e1e2a00a5f3084e06d601348438c435731715618 Oct 00:24$10trail0.81x (-19.2%)
-$1.92
600x551b2481f4dd0f8db47e3afafba4b9c673494b5b18 Oct 00:14$10pull0.00x (-100.0%)
-$10.00
590xa0c4219e79807c4633568ecc45bc58b3c7c7bfad17 Oct 23:57$10trail1.47x (+46.9%)
+$4.69
580x759d7a03487f0b1d4afcd2f02146b3cb8890b4fa17 Oct 23:24$10trail1.05x (+5.1%)
+$0.51
570xead8751790614d79bdb4fa28747a3b03f8a7e8c617 Oct 22:55$10trail1.21x (+21.3%)
+$2.13
560x68864fa6909f1062b7a117712249031b280d713117 Oct 22:09$10trail1.10x (+10.4%)
+$1.04
550xd55bc994827bf1fc4d95424a5e8f2e7e5c24363217 Oct 22:09$10trail1.04x (+4.2%)
+$0.42
540x189814abfbd0f6bd6e6b6b9cebed7162ecb1bfe617 Oct 21:55$10trail0.80x (-20.4%)
-$2.04
530x66108b8db75273f227f6c73dcc218b8f799187c417 Oct 21:51$10trail1.35x (+34.9%)
+$3.49
520x53c21ccb09711cace8b5b0181978c2e05cdb538917 Oct 21:43$10trail0.65x (-35.0%)
-$3.50
510x621a49229ecd0e5e8beb0ae72a1e40f4b3840c9017 Oct 21:22$10trail0.99x (-0.9%)
-$0.09
500x20b0dec763679dd8278353d84126513859362fda17 Oct 21:01$10trail2.51x (+151.3%)
+$15.13
490x3c954cfe26b92caa930ff67f12998ff3f10de21b17 Oct 21:00$10trail0.90x (-9.6%)
-$0.96
480x751547289458ec500bd1441651fd538167b75c3917 Oct 20:36$10trail1.62x (+62.2%)
+$6.22
470xc14b100f44eaae0f1f78e11696ee75a20ee6334d17 Oct 19:53$10trail0.90x (-10.5%)
-$1.05
460x07c91961377d31de2c72c799b7caa8d6cd52d38017 Oct 19:39$10trail0.80x (-19.7%)
-$1.97
450x729726a4e5675ba89d9447c364a7e41f69ce49ca17 Oct 19:38$10trail1.12x (+12.0%)
+$1.20
440x3278780c212ea8d9f95bf828f35a81945598864217 Oct 19:33$10pull0.00x (-100.0%)
-$10.00
430x076f1f924c0147d139709049dbbbefbc19a0506817 Oct 19:27$10trail0.83x (-17.2%)
-$1.72
420x6acb3bf306593e179cd35bb5f3bdfa6d56555d1c17 Oct 19:17$10trail2.02x (+102.1%)
+$10.21
410xf00312fe76aa904324c5d2fdbb92b75585eb583517 Oct 18:53$10trail1.35x (+35.1%)
+$3.51
400xfff5b5166e9355e73c9d8656ecc7fb905780a9bb17 Oct 18:51$10trail1.05x (+5.3%)
+$0.53
390xe6d21d28e519d9a79e59a273fafd28f9cfe1cb3c17 Oct 18:06$10trail0.89x (-11.4%)
-$1.14
380x34210edd8e1f3db44b4b738342efb61fddf45d7417 Oct 16:46$10trail1.28x (+27.7%)
+$2.77
370x20df48f16f89d467ef55ca9fdf971389bba216d317 Oct 16:40$10trail0.74x (-25.7%)
-$2.57
360x0849d4b3d0658b5a044f656e0d05a28097b31a9717 Oct 16:00$10trail0.65x (-34.7%)
-$3.47
350xdd6eba843594740c3a309f135a43a7365ccc76f517 Oct 15:54$10trail0.82x (-18.4%)
-$1.84
340x063f4568c12de7038de90cd6e9dc765623fb455417 Oct 15:13$10pull0.00x (-100.0%)
-$10.00
330xbd564f55c345f2bfccf4f3772f22d2bb4b6e8c2c17 Oct 10:32$10trail0.97x (-3.3%)
-$0.33
320x4059923068eafe34882c9c5c90ea5f3e05678e2e17 Oct 10:28$10trail0.90x (-10.4%)
-$1.04
310x018c307690412d03d3a5998874ee1ad998d704dd17 Oct 07:48$10pull0.00x (-100.0%)
-$10.00
300x18e8d219ea9fdd7fde8118bd2c7aaba9fe2963d017 Oct 07:40$10trail0.69x (-30.5%)
-$3.05
290xfd71a8ada0743c068e1860c55f4ed4de5e193bb817 Oct 07:38$10trail0.85x (-14.9%)
-$1.49
280x4d7e5fa7615202674780ceb4d4b0733c1cee1d8317 Oct 07:19$10trail0.72x (-28.4%)
-$2.84
270xaba6be9d2657d1d81191f5a2798cb20bee82f6fe17 Oct 06:53$10trail0.88x (-11.8%)
-$1.18
260xc1534205a6b6d8c8557fd4d59e3b3bed791ba7d917 Oct 06:07$10trail0.65x (-35.5%)
-$3.55
250x07838fb56c5ecbdcba3ad60d4a51954476860d3a17 Oct 05:38$10trail0.83x (-16.9%)
-$1.69
240x8eb59f8ec0119498461d123ff48b2d7051f7f19217 Oct 05:11$10trail0.79x (-21.0%)
-$2.10
230x5394583bc2ce97d5f515ff5729caff756df2e3d117 Oct 05:03$10trail0.75x (-25.3%)
-$2.53
220xb766f13aac99589cd705f879603fa6082be2d52017 Oct 03:55$10trail0.92x (-7.7%)
-$0.77
210x9664048ab6edfb0d3b1e8bbcce1338d06e4c562b17 Oct 03:22$10trail0.91x (-8.8%)
-$0.88
200x71423da3f5038ca8b81e7609546306964ef8bb8417 Oct 02:33$10trail0.83x (-17.2%)
-$1.72
190xfa0c1f331861c41b63effcda14d6aeabf173497d17 Oct 02:10$10pull0.00x (-100.0%)
-$10.00
180xe060b4a2d0155bbdd8a1ccdc226dda1cf0980b8d17 Oct 02:05$10pull0.00x (-100.0%)
-$10.00
170x566ecd3a2ce18e92af34bd5c905a05b5ae65f4a417 Oct 02:04$10trail0.95x (-4.5%)
-$0.45
160x2bbaf8ead581a7cc51d0f32610c32287e1fbed3c17 Oct 01:49$10trail1.83x (+83.5%)
+$8.35
150x116b18cabde1fc2f91c268422c12ed33aa2d4eac17 Oct 01:35$10trail0.72x (-27.6%)
-$2.76
140xe6d75b1490f1d92ade8c5bbc698ce7bd6c4c2fa117 Oct 01:27$10trail1.58x (+58.4%)
+$5.84
130xbbe61fef00a718be4e03a5925b74d2fccf1398a517 Oct 01:15$10trail1.44x (+44.3%)
+$4.43
120x01df739cbab6ca301e7c16388b881f1d1dd0a28d17 Oct 00:19$10trail1.13x (+13.4%)
+$1.34
110x9fbc0771ebbd2c9a1567225eb740b0714d8df25316 Oct 23:22$10trail2.37x (+136.8%)
+$13.68
100x2960b0588f2a7d0540afb82fa305d59fd01bb35a16 Oct 23:19$10pull0.00x (-100.0%)
-$10.00
90xf7514e89f722067dedb81687daecb4335f4de8d216 Oct 22:16$10trail1.76x (+75.8%)
+$7.58
80xf1f51aaa4a2d6d246e7e10ccac074e9d8866420316 Oct 20:53$10trail0.85x (-14.5%)
-$1.45
70x563c5ea4c478c01ca5d8cb08a1eccaff117e49f716 Oct 20:18$10trail0.96x (-3.9%)
-$0.39
60x798a09140624d8fbe6825135c17aa9c9a635796e16 Oct 19:32$10trail0.68x (-32.3%)
-$3.23
50x4a5d0a0e5218a0bfe5a7fd76b1ccfdb86c64871f16 Oct 19:04$10trail0.68x (-32.2%)
-$3.22
40x4e0451c1f23603318b48f2ab00f34e4dead31caa16 Oct 19:04$10trail1.04x (+3.8%)
+$0.38
30x736c81d71c7919b5f62d0b657a292df00ef6387816 Oct 18:55$10trail0.70x (-30.3%)
-$3.03
20x3f5f18274833bd7c8de46d1500d1f70593fd0cd916 Oct 18:40$10trail1.17x (+17.2%)
+$1.72
10xa5cff12c7a60643fb32251bc1589a526d724ea4616 Oct 17:32$10pull0.00x (-100.0%)
-$10.00
Full Test Manager report
# conc658 paper (testmgr2) 18 Oct 05:41 UTC
rule in script header. Open legs 0.
- Q: n 371, mean 1.00x, median 0.88x, win 127, pull 45, time 6