A3-DIP resting buy below +305s price
Analyst 3 · v3 band 300k-1M · arms A -20%, B -10%, C at P0 · paper, $10 a trade, since 10 Oct · idea #339 · updated 14 Oct 04:50 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: Forward n 19 trades (C 0.60x, A/B 0.47x, all <1x): below kill line; decide at 30 fills; owner testmgr4
Still open:
- KILL 14 Oct: fwd A n30 0.97x < own rule 1.1x; C 0.60x
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: arm A mean < 1.1x over 30 fills or not above C. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$8.89
Trades done
30
4 up, 26 down
Best trade
4.6x
Exit rule shown
A
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 30 | 0.97x | 4 | 0 | 26 | -$8.89 |
| B | 31 | 0.82x | 3 | 0 | 28 | -$55.63 |
| C | 39 | 0.60x | 1 | 0 | 38 | -$157.30 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0xfa83d3d94ed51f991c78231cda9e18099e731398 | 14 Oct 04:34 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 29 | 0x2213b6c6ecbd2144b01a82c14b445ffc2ba53fb8 | 14 Oct 02:49 | $10 | tp | 4.60x (+360.4%) +$36.04 |
| 28 | 0x9840c63f001db631916dd73cc412e54b1579056e | 14 Oct 02:43 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 27 | 0x1684d1e6d833fd2a19063b3a6f1130e371e84f24 | 14 Oct 02:06 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 26 | 0xf5bfcb4a9156137c6dc5a7043aefc356417ebfc4 | 13 Oct 22:53 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 25 | 0x546e0156684b5bf509d593f07c1303e6525aa4dc | 13 Oct 05:52 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 24 | 0xcac1414eac15af7a6a5fcc8bd578cbed0f9a4d15 | 12 Oct 18:18 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 23 | 0xc413db014066964952a9c20aa760ef806073e195 | 12 Oct 17:27 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 22 | 0x336efc6d509c89c700ff4dbe15828dd83d987a63 | 12 Oct 16:07 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 21 | 0x0504f58b517948745eba7ece065599e062219ed4 | 12 Oct 15:57 | $10 | tp | 4.60x (+360.4%) +$36.04 |
| 20 | 0x48094f719a58656eec31291e6a0652142c3113aa | 12 Oct 15:53 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 19 | 0x2c3cb57c191d6890576a51582e799083fb34182e | 12 Oct 15:34 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 18 | 0xf452527396360cbb43cc082435ccc806cea56b17 | 12 Oct 15:10 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 17 | 0x65ce56038657300a2251c617633f5dc193471e46 | 12 Oct 14:52 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 16 | 0xae5c809317ae309e0871a60c997fa580c7ff0aff | 12 Oct 14:35 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 15 | 0x449a7e471ebfd47b4f42dad307f40a66e2019f8d | 12 Oct 13:10 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 14 | 0x430251e2e5db816a1ccfc9db708347060fc6cb1a | 12 Oct 09:23 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 13 | 0xafdcfbaee898665914814d63f2719fef908356cb | 12 Oct 08:38 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 12 | 0xbfa59d4e591d9ae6196a77db28f2f70e85b0df1a | 12 Oct 05:00 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 11 | 0xa84da3db805362edfb3f6154097b3af92984a772 | 12 Oct 04:09 | $10 | tp | 4.60x (+360.4%) +$36.04 |
| 10 | 0xa20e64ecf8b0e7581e526e023e61d8bc889d4229 | 12 Oct 03:44 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 9 | 0xae0e93c0d2c43886b4f840a0675b845c675a88fc | 12 Oct 03:22 | $10 | tp | 4.60x (+360.4%) +$36.04 |
| 8 | 0x0359b9be1a868c39657ed799e83d98f128c3dcbe | 12 Oct 00:45 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 7 | 0xf0d59bfd4d70de10758bf6cec91605c1b0bf337f | 12 Oct 00:19 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 6 | 0x1996432a9c09f66f471219def85858b2df60d404 | 12 Oct 00:12 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 5 | 0x0f592dcbea19382b3cbbbe0810786fd94b126829 | 12 Oct 00:01 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 4 | 0x973ac818af14aad900bd4d7b70bb46d306b131e3 | 11 Oct 21:09 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 3 | 0x2c254c0c7777130f951583a1650d1bc1b93fd5f4 | 11 Oct 09:52 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 2 | 0x06211e22935039e35b52bff05b9da281efa0bcf7 | 11 Oct 09:22 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
| 1 | 0x967d9148c71fcf6aebaf2c4c79d8dde33e4a5e9d | 10 Oct 19:25 | $10 | sl | 0.47x (-53.5%) -$5.35 |
Full Test Manager report
# A3-DIP forward paper test (Test Manager) - 13 Oct 21:50 UTC
Rule (a3-iter-10oct-n.md, #895): v3 pool, cap 300k-1M at first swap +300 s; P0 = first print >= +305 s; resting buy at 0.8*P0 (A) / 0.9*P0 (B) / P0 (C), fill window 30 min, tp5 sl.5 4 h, 7% slip + 1% fee, pull = 0. Replay n=350: A 1.34 vs 1.03, B 1.28 vs 1.08. Forward from 10 Oct ~12:30 UTC (v3live.db).
- Pools in band: 41; waiting 2; open legs 4; skipped {'c5 outside 300k-1M': 755}
- C (baseline at P0): fills 39, mean 0.60x, median 0.47, hit5 1, <1x 38
- A (-20%): fills 30, mean 0.97x, median 0.47, hit5 4, <1x 26; no fill 10
- B (-10%): fills 31, mean 0.82x, median 0.47, hit5 3, <1x 28; no fill 9
- Longest loss streak A: 9 (10 in a row = stop and review). Kill: A mean < 1.1x over >= 30 fills, or not above C.
- Hunt: 5x flip from a 300k-1M entry, not a first-minute catcher. Only Ben switches live (D-030).