A1-FLOW60

Waiting for: fwd tp5 n12 mean 0.48x (replay 1.01x): will be retired at n30 or if 10 losses in a row; owner testmgr2

Still open:

• auditor 5-check

Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: tp5 forward mean < 1.3x over 30 trades. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.

Each step is a trade with exit rule tp5, numbered in time order.

# A1-FLOW60 paper test (Test Manager) - 11 Oct 08:30 UTC

Rule (fw/a1-early-hunters-10oct.md, #389): v3 WETH fee-100 pool; gate at first swap +60 s: WETH bought in 60 s >= 10, price >= 5x first print, mcap at entry < 1.5M; enter at +63 s; 0.04 ETH; 1% fee + 2% impact each side; time exit 60 min; pull = 0. Hunt: entry ~60 s, cap <1.5M, target 1M-3M+ (A1 in-sample: 87/152 runners caught, median 5.8x from entry).
- Pools with first swap since 8 Oct 00:00 UTC: 966; waiting 0; open 0; skipped {'buy60<10': 904, 'cap>=1.5M': 1, 'price<5x': 2}
- tp5: replay(8-10 Oct) n 47, mean 1.01x, <1x 34, pulled 10, >=5x 5 | forward n 12, mean 0.48x, <1x 10, pulled 2, >=5x 0 | replay outsider-flow>=10 n 47, mean 1.01x, <1x 34, pulled 10, >=5x 5
- tp10: replay(8-10 Oct) n 47, mean 1.16x, <1x 34, pulled 10, >=5x 4 | forward n 12, mean 0.48x, <1x 10, pulled 2, >=5x 0 | replay outsider-flow>=10 n 47, mean 1.16x, <1x 34, pulled 10, >=5x 4
- ladder: replay(8-10 Oct) n 47, mean 1.09x, <1x 34, pulled 10, >=5x 4 | forward n 12, mean 0.48x, <1x 10, pulled 2, >=5x 0 | replay outsider-flow>=10 n 47, mean 1.09x, <1x 34, pulled 10, >=5x 4
- Longest loss streak tp5: 7 (10 in a row = stop and review). Kill (proposed): tp5 forward mean < 1.3x over 30 trades.
- Replay part = A1's OOS window (rule fitted on 7 Sep-7 Oct); forward = entries after 10 Oct 02:00 UTC. Exits on the swap tape; "buy60" includes the dev launch buy, outsider split excludes creator-signed swaps. Not tested: sellability for outsiders, our size vs real pool depth. Paper only (D-030).