{"id": "grid", "name": "5-Min Cap rule replay", "sub": "Live rule re-run on past coins since 13 Sep (Test Manager, nightly)", "idea": "grid", "status": "running", "since": "08 Oct", "main_arm": "live rule", "kill": "replay only; the variant table in the report compares rule changes", "arm_col": "-", "verified": false, "checks": ["21 Oct auditor3 DRIFT: last40 0.71, last20 0.91 (n273, all 2.06 rests on 3 runners 23-51x); re-verify when last40 ex3>=1.1"], "kind_label": "Replay", "group": "replay", "verify_link": "http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/fw/audit-grid.md", "hunt": "replay of live 5-Min Cap rule: entry +300 s, cap 250k-1M; target 3M-10M", "blocker": "Not verifiable as a forward test: it is a replay of the live rule. Auditor3 21 Oct: last40 ex-top3 0.28x, last20 ex3 0.07x; edge rests on 3 runners 23-51x. Needs last40 ex3 >= 1.1 on the nightly replay. Owner: testmgr (watch nightly), analyst1/exec for live exit rules. Re-check 28 Oct; if still below, retire as a replay and keep only as comparison table.", "expected_per_day": 8, "kind": "paper", "updated": 1792699137.6766553, "replay": null, "trades_rows": [{"tok": "0x88042d98421b4d4014910bd9ca40d3cf3a309733", "pool": "0xc586fcefc588870aa3159b713aa813578326562c", "entry_bkk": "22 Sep 05:10", "exit_bkk": "22 Sep 09:09", "why": "time", "x": "19.6257", "exit_t": "1790042940", "cap_buy_usd": "590018", "cap_sell_usd": "11579516"}, {"tok": "0x55d598f8b2c3528e47062b760d6fc66cfd2a2578", "pool": "0xc8b416104e0b4bd5e5e14489f90ac807b67300e2", "entry_bkk": "22 Sep 08:54", "exit_bkk": "22 Sep 12:54", "why": "time", "x": "17.0947", "exit_t": "1790056440", "cap_buy_usd": "302027", "cap_sell_usd": "5163061"}, {"tok": "0x99f2e3420c1071bff35b8aef98a1339ea823ce24", "pool": "0xa7b6a6a6ba5c7bfe5235cae718dd7a9138599f6f", "entry_bkk": "22 Sep 22:17", "exit_bkk": "23 Sep 02:15", "why": "time", "x": "2.2401", "exit_t": "1790104500", "cap_buy_usd": "459653", "cap_sell_usd": 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"why": "stop", "x": "0.0041", "exit_t": "1792273140", "cap_buy_usd": "937355", "cap_sell_usd": "3843"}, {"tok": "0xa6676fd85d21951c00731bc093ae8e70f264e451", "pool": "0x0e5a8ae81e0add2edbb9b16b388abb06365ac956", "entry_bkk": "18 Oct 04:55", "exit_bkk": "18 Oct 04:56", "why": "stop", "x": "0.023", "exit_t": "1792274160", "cap_buy_usd": "464149", "cap_sell_usd": "10675"}, {"tok": "0x22b52bc70775b7fd93050ccb81640861ee7ec10c", "pool": "0x391f161781ae906c7bef000a824c3cefb0753cf1", "entry_bkk": "18 Oct 06:06", "exit_bkk": "18 Oct 06:09", "why": "stop", "x": "0.0044", "exit_t": "1792278540", "cap_buy_usd": "800908", "cap_sell_usd": "3524"}, {"tok": "0x6ee6367bf3c51e9ddde869c92a98403f231c243f", "pool": "0x2efd42117778760638e3c73b68732ef75da0bfd8", "entry_bkk": "18 Oct 06:41", "exit_bkk": "18 Oct 07:18", "why": "stop", "x": "0.0652", "exit_t": "1792282680", "cap_buy_usd": "722724", "cap_sell_usd": "47122"}, {"tok": "0x32c9b4a001a4b5313e24a1eca9563c532728cbe1", "pool": "0x774c6694dbf1ba9cb6bf52c4a7eef32bdb1b7ce9", "entry_bkk": "18 Oct 11:17", "exit_bkk": "18 Oct 12:18", "why": "stop", "x": "0.0772", "exit_t": "1792300680", "cap_buy_usd": "652860", "cap_sell_usd": "50401"}, {"tok": "0x6589c3039083e2bb3154c65108a15af0aaf11a93", "pool": "0x1774f28901f7d32548cc1636eabbc32eafb41bbc", "entry_bkk": "18 Oct 12:32", "exit_bkk": "18 Oct 16:32", "why": "time", "x": "9.8913", "exit_t": "1792315920", "cap_buy_usd": "444432", "cap_sell_usd": "4396010"}, {"tok": "0x40e03517902558b1000c0ee0661bcc5eb2a0d872", "pool": "0xcba2ad10fdf741812784f5cbfff37299f92a36e5", "entry_bkk": "19 Oct 03:39", "exit_bkk": "19 Oct 03:45", "why": "stop", "x": "0.1085", "exit_t": "1792356300", "cap_buy_usd": "729667", "cap_sell_usd": "79169"}, {"tok": "0xa99cdaf54870bda2136f173abe1c8d92e5b56675", "pool": "0x48957444fda9442b08dc9976027ca9655b38f048", "entry_bkk": "19 Oct 04:02", "exit_bkk": "19 Oct 04:15", "why": "stop", "x": "0.4515", "exit_t": "1792358100", "cap_buy_usd": "690295", "cap_sell_usd": "311668"}, {"tok": "0xa912b3dbc399a61d983d55332941ae506e9a405c", "pool": "0x9e6b7a6cc985499b0939fe81454cd4e04c1f4b1d", "entry_bkk": "19 Oct 04:55", "exit_bkk": "19 Oct 04:57", "why": "stop", "x": "0.0047", "exit_t": "1792360620", "cap_buy_usd": "712372", "cap_sell_usd": "3348"}, {"tok": "0x92452ff33bfa05913446b61f297c2c25bb455553", "pool": "0x7365be0525c6c4031950c3ff7b3575393f668053", "entry_bkk": "19 Oct 05:06", "exit_bkk": "19 Oct 09:06", "why": "time", "x": "6.8629", "exit_t": "1792375560", "cap_buy_usd": "311559", "cap_sell_usd": "2138198"}, {"tok": "0x1e39c02ba1ba9f1fa5565e1876e8b4989eed9557", "pool": "0x32f3590b77e2ee6d624f21e86010e43168d5336e", "entry_bkk": "20 Oct 12:40", "exit_bkk": "20 Oct 12:42", "why": "stop", "x": "0.0023", "exit_t": "1792474920", "cap_buy_usd": "744819", "cap_sell_usd": "1713"}, {"tok": "0x39def60309ae99d08ec1c1a7024108a0f9fbdc14", "pool": "0x5f053eaf6fbf73c722e0ce690d1c5a26ddae164c", "entry_bkk": "20 Oct 12:57", "exit_bkk": "20 Oct 12:57", "why": "stop", "x": "0.0051", "exit_t": "1792475820", "cap_buy_usd": "735505", "cap_sell_usd": "3751"}, {"tok": "0xdde302d1d23ff47b1332f72b3f06f345dd06bcbb", "pool": "0x895cd25eeed9d74b6cbe8b0be58057bad8a39088", "entry_bkk": "20 Oct 13:16", "exit_bkk": "20 Oct 13:21", "why": "stop", "x": "0.0102", "exit_t": "1792477260", "cap_buy_usd": "709539", "cap_sell_usd": "7237"}, {"tok": "0x1441236eb3a7c2275b7524664f9d498f3ce60ea6", "pool": "0xacb29aa89d89091f522bb32b6a6fc8ceacfa57ee", "entry_bkk": "21 Oct 01:06", "exit_bkk": "21 Oct 01:32", "why": "stop", "x": "0.2617", "exit_t": "1792521120", "cap_buy_usd": "732477", "cap_sell_usd": "191689"}, {"tok": "0x90a36713577d661e8f3ae0085dfed7f4460a2e71", "pool": "0x55e0a094ca5d911bcddaea0d4d2751aca668cb83", "entry_bkk": "21 Oct 01:40", "exit_bkk": "21 Oct 05:40", "why": "time", "x": "6.4052", "exit_t": "1792536000", "cap_buy_usd": "424000", "cap_sell_usd": "2715805"}, {"tok": "0x1e7cd3cb638f22f29276af430d5a40bce28fee55", "pool": "0x815d01214fb1aebcf58254d47ddb8d6cfa201a1b", "entry_bkk": "22 Oct 05:17", "exit_bkk": "22 Oct 05:20", "why": "stop", "x": "0.0115", "exit_t": "1792621200", "cap_buy_usd": "394479", "cap_sell_usd": "4537"}], "arms": {"live rule": {"n": 275, "mean_x": 2.065, "median_x": 0.473, "wins_2x": 41, "runners_10x": 19, "losers": 228, "pnl_usd": 2929.01}}, "arm_notes": {"live rule": "stop 0.5x, 4 h, cap 250k-1M at 5 min"}, "trades": 275, "pnl_usd": 2929.01, "report_md": "# Shadow variant grid: live mc5 rule (paper replay, Test Manager)\n\nMade 23 Oct 02:58 Bangkok. Same coins and fill model as the live rule's research (bt.py tick-walk on real pool depth, 1% each way + gas), every night. Paper only; nothing touches a wallet. Only Ben changes the live rules (D-030). Numbers are tickets: +1.0 = one ticket of profit ($50 at $50). 'w/o top 3' removes the 3 best trades. Random = share of random draws from the same pools (same exits) that this rule beats, per period (dumb baseline, D-032). Kill rule: behind the live rule on both all days and the last 7 days in 3 runs in a row = dropped.\n\n| variant | last 7 d: trades, net, w/o top 3 | since 13 Sep: trades, net, w/o top 3, per day | wins | beats random | behind live (runs) |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| 0.3x, 4h, 150k-1M | 41, +5.2, -19.5 | 346, +326.4, +227.2, +9.87 | 19% | 97/79/96 | 0 |\n| stop 0.3x | 35, +4.5, -20.2 | 275, +335.3, +236.1, +10.85 | 21% | 98/85/98 | 0 |\n| no stop | 35, +3.8, -20.9 | 275, +344.1, +244.9, +11.13 | 21% | 98/85/99 | 0 |\n| no stop, 4h, 150k-2M | 51, -3.1, -27.8 | 396, +364.5, +265.2, +11.02 | 19% | 96/77/97 | 0 |\n| **LIVE (0.5x, 4h, 250k-1M, 5m)** | 35, -3.5, -23.7 | 275, +292.9, +193.7, +9.48 | 17% | 98/85/96 | - |\n| band 250k-2M | 45, -9.4, -29.5 | 325, +309.7, +210.5, +10.02 | 16% | 97/85/95 | 0 |\n| entry 3m | 41, -14.9, -30.4 | 303, +341.8, +246.4, +10.66 | 15% | 95/76/97 | 0 |\n\n**Leader (last 7 days): 0.3x, 4h, 150k-1M** vs live: +5.2 vs -3.5 tickets this week, +326.4 vs +292.9 since 13 Sep.\nDropped so far: time 1h (11 Oct), time 12h (11 Oct), no stop, 12h (11 Oct), 0.3x, 12h (11 Oct), no stop, 12h, 250k-2M (11 Oct), 0.3x, 12h, 3m (11 Oct), band 150k-1M (15 Oct), entry 8m (18 Oct)\n\nA leader is a candidate for Analyst 1, not a switch: a rule change goes through the pipeline and only Ben switches (D-030).\n"}