GRIDFWD live vs entry 3m vs band 250k-2M
Manager #1810 · same pools, same exits, 3 arms · paper, $10 a trade, since 11 Oct · idea #1810 grid · updated 12 Oct 16:20 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: Running (cron */10, ops #1821 done): 7 closed fwd, last trade 11 Oct; few pools pass 250k-1M at +300s per day so quiet days are normal, not idle. Kill rule at 40 closed per arm; then auditor 5-check
Still open:
- auditor 5-check
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: E3M/B2M mean not above LIVE after 40 closed per arm. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$130.41
Trades done
20
0 up, 20 down
Best trade
0.9x
Exit rule shown
LIVE
+300 s, 250k-1M, stop .5x, 4h
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule LIVE, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIVE +300 s, 250k-1M, stop .5x, 4h | 20 | 0.35x | 0 | 0 | 20 | -$130.41 |
| T10x.5 | 20 | 0.35x | 0 | 0 | 20 | -$130.41 |
| T10x.7 | 20 | 0.35x | 0 | 0 | 20 | -$130.41 |
| T5x.5 | 20 | 0.35x | 0 | 0 | 20 | -$130.41 |
| T5x.7 | 20 | 0.35x | 0 | 0 | 20 | -$130.41 |
| B2M band 250k-2M | 22 | 0.38x | 0 | 0 | 22 | -$136.62 |
| E3M entry +180 s | 23 | 0.37x | 0 | 0 | 23 | -$143.99 |
Every trade (exit rule LIVE)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0x48094f719a58656eec31291e6a0652142c3113aa | 12 Oct 15:51 | $10 | stop | 0.22x (-78.0%) -$7.80 |
| 19 | 0x2c3cb57c191d6890576a51582e799083fb34182e | 12 Oct 15:24 | $10 | stop | 0.26x (-73.6%) -$7.36 |
| 18 | 0xf452527396360cbb43cc082435ccc806cea56b17 | 12 Oct 15:10 | $10 | stop | 0.44x (-55.7%) -$5.57 |
| 17 | 0x65ce56038657300a2251c617633f5dc193471e46 | 12 Oct 14:50 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.0%) -$5.30 |
| 16 | 0xae5c809317ae309e0871a60c997fa580c7ff0aff | 12 Oct 14:33 | $10 | stop | 0.44x (-56.2%) -$5.62 |
| 15 | 0x449a7e471ebfd47b4f42dad307f40a66e2019f8d | 12 Oct 13:06 | $10 | stop | 0.45x (-54.9%) -$5.49 |
| 14 | 0x430251e2e5db816a1ccfc9db708347060fc6cb1a | 12 Oct 09:21 | $10 | stop | 0.41x (-58.9%) -$5.89 |
| 13 | 0xafdcfbaee898665914814d63f2719fef908356cb | 12 Oct 08:31 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.1%) -$5.41 |
| 12 | 0x2912e6522efa87605aa38c2985a7a62cfd422929 | 12 Oct 08:17 | $10 | stop | 0.15x (-84.9%) -$8.49 |
| 11 | 0xbfa59d4e591d9ae6196a77db28f2f70e85b0df1a | 12 Oct 04:59 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-53.6%) -$5.36 |
| 10 | 0xa20e64ecf8b0e7581e526e023e61d8bc889d4229 | 12 Oct 03:44 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-53.2%) -$5.32 |
| 9 | 0xa84da3db805362edfb3f6154097b3af92984a772 | 12 Oct 03:40 | $10 | stop | 0.46x (-54.0%) -$5.40 |
| 8 | 0xae0e93c0d2c43886b4f840a0675b845c675a88fc | 12 Oct 03:13 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-52.9%) -$5.29 |
| 7 | 0x0359b9be1a868c39657ed799e83d98f128c3dcbe | 12 Oct 00:41 | $10 | stop | 0.44x (-55.6%) -$5.56 |
| 6 | 0xf0d59bfd4d70de10758bf6cec91605c1b0bf337f | 12 Oct 00:19 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 5 | 0x1996432a9c09f66f471219def85858b2df60d404 | 12 Oct 00:11 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 4 | 0x0f592dcbea19382b3cbbbe0810786fd94b126829 | 12 Oct 00:01 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 3 | 0xc5f873f69af6e419770f3a9acb9051a469535fce | 11 Oct 23:55 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 2 | 0x973ac818af14aad900bd4d7b70bb46d306b131e3 | 11 Oct 21:09 | $10 | stop | 0.40x (-59.6%) -$5.96 |
| 1 | 0x75a710eac8a62caa5112fba024b1cd394cb44044 | 11 Oct 20:12 | $10 | time | 0.94x (-5.9%) -$0.59 |
Full Test Manager report
# GRIDFWD: grid leaders vs live rule, forward (Test Manager, paper) Made 12 Oct 09:20 UTC. Pools created from 11 Oct 08:00 UTC. Same pools, same exit (stop 0.5x, pull, 4 h), 1% fee + 2% impact per side. Paper only; only Ben switches live (D-030). | arm | rule | closed | open | mean x | median | wins >=2x | total | pulls | mean ex-pull | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | LIVE | +300s, 250k-1M | 20 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0 | -13.0 | 4 | 0.43 | | E3M | +180s, 250k-1M | 23 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0 | -14.4 | 4 | 0.45 | | B2M | +300s, 250k-2M | 22 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0 | -13.7 | 4 | 0.46 | | T5x.5 | +300s, 250k-1M, trail 0.5 of peak after 5x | 20 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0 | -13.0 | 4 | 0.43 | | T5x.7 | +300s, 250k-1M, trail 0.7 of peak after 5x | 20 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0 | -13.0 | 4 | 0.43 | | T10x.5 | +300s, 250k-1M, trail 0.5 of peak after 10x | 20 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0 | -13.0 | 4 | 0.43 | | T10x.7 | +300s, 250k-1M, trail 0.7 of peak after 10x | 20 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0 | -13.0 | 4 | 0.43 | Kill: T arms mean not above LIVE after 40 closed (they only differ on pools that reach the target; judge on total). E3M or B2M mean not above LIVE after 40 closed per arm, or LIVE mean < 1.0 over 40. Replay (grid since 13 Sep, tickets): live +291.5, entry 3m +335.3, band 250k-2M +320.5.