Hooked fee-100

Waiting for: registry gate real (owner-only list, 700-addr batches, our wallets unlisted; dataeng #851). Skim-vs-revert for unlisted unproven: needs Ben $5 buy+sell on an h100 pool; until then NOT sellable-proven | Ben/auditor | open

Still open:

• Registry owner-only, traders pre-listed (19/19) = curated insiders like d0fd; fresh wallet unlisted, sell at paper price unproven (likely KILL for live)
• Open: real fresh-wallet buy+sell on an h100 pool

Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: arm A mean < 1.3x over 40 trades; exits with no swaps until hold end count as 0 (silent pull, #172). Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.

Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.

# Hooked fee-100 (A2-H100 + A1-QUIET60 merged, A1 hooked-initpx) forward paper test (Test Manager) - 11 Oct 08:00 UTC

Feed v4tape (forward only). Universe: fee 100, hook low 14 bits 0x144, WETH/native. Entry first swap +60 s, reserve >= 0.3 ETH, 0.04 ETH, 0.01% fee + 3% slippage per side, pull (liq <= 50% of peak) = 0. Briefs: fw/a1-h100-review.md, fw/a2-corr-pulls.md, fw/a1-hooked-initpx.md.
- Hooked fee-100 pools seen: 33; waiting 0; open arm-runs 0; skipped {'reserve<0.3': 4}; hook sizes {11689: 29}
- arm A (tp3, stop 0.5, 60 min): all n 29, mean 1.81x, <1x 11, zeros 11 | v11689 n 29, mean 1.81x, <1x 11, zeros 11 | hi-init n 8, mean 2.18x, <1x 2, zeros 2 | std-init n 21, mean 1.66x, <1x 9, zeros 9 | ON-TIME only (feed lag<=30 s) n 16, mean 2.18x, <1x 4, zeros 4 | late n 13, mean 1.34x, <1x 7, zeros 7
- arm B (tp4, stop 0.5, 60 min): all n 29, mean 1.34x, <1x 19, zeros 19 | v11689 n 29, mean 1.34x, <1x 19, zeros 19 | hi-init n 8, mean 1.94x, <1x 4, zeros 4 | std-init n 21, mean 1.11x, <1x 15, zeros 15 | ON-TIME only (feed lag<=30 s) n 16, mean 1.94x, <1x 8, zeros 8 | late n 13, mean 0.60x, <1x 11, zeros 11
- arm C (tp20, stop none, 40 min): all n 29, mean 0.67x, <1x 28, zeros 28 | v11689 n 29, mean 0.67x, <1x 28, zeros 28 | hi-init n 8, mean 2.42x, <1x 7, zeros 7 | std-init n 21, mean 0.00x, <1x 21, zeros 21 | ON-TIME only (feed lag<=30 s) n 16, mean 1.21x, <1x 15, zeros 15 | late n 13, mean 0.00x, <1x 13, zeros 13
- arm D (tp10, stop none, 40 min): all n 29, mean 0.67x, <1x 27, zeros 27 | v11689 n 29, mean 0.67x, <1x 27, zeros 27 | hi-init n 8, mean 1.21x, <1x 7, zeros 7 | std-init n 21, mean 0.46x, <1x 20, zeros 20 | ON-TIME only (feed lag<=30 s) n 16, mean 1.21x, <1x 14, zeros 14 | late n 13, mean 0.00x, <1x 13, zeros 13
- arm E (tp3, stop 0.5, 60 min): all n 6, mean 2.91x, <1x 0, zeros 0 | v11689 n 6, mean 2.91x, <1x 0, zeros 0 | hi-init n 5, mean 2.91x, <1x 0, zeros 0 | std-init n 1, mean 2.91x, <1x 0, zeros 0 | ON-TIME only (feed lag<=30 s) n 5, mean 2.91x, <1x 0, zeros 0 | late n 1, mean 2.91x, <1x 0, zeros 0
- arm F (tp15, stop none, 20 min): all n 29, mean 2.18x, <1x 9, zeros 2 | v11689 n 29, mean 2.18x, <1x 9, zeros 2 | hi-init n 8, mean 3.01x, <1x 0, zeros 0 | std-init n 21, mean 1.87x, <1x 9, zeros 2 | ON-TIME only (feed lag<=30 s) n 16, mean 2.76x, <1x 3, zeros 0 | late n 13, mean 1.47x, <1x 6, zeros 2
- Sim expects: A ~2.25, B ~2.30, C (hi-init, 11689) ~5.4, D ~3.95. Longest loss streak arm A: 3 (10 in a row = stop and review).
- QUIET exits (#172): pool stopped swapping before the hold ended; v4tape has no ModifyLiquidity so a silent pull looks the same. Counted as 0 (conservative) in net_x; column x_if_quiet_sold has the old last-price value. Quiet exits whose pool has a logged liquidity removal (liq.jsonl, forward from 14:48 UTC 9 Oct, #180): 18. Quiet count per arm: A 11, B 19, C 28, D 27, E 0, F 9.
- Late = feed lag (emitted - init, or entry swap emitted - block time) > 30 s: live would not have entered at +60 s (#153). Judge arms by the ON-TIME line. v4tape has no ModifyLiquidity events yet, so pulls are invisible here (a pool pulled early just stops swapping; trust the sim's pull rates, ~22%).
- Sign check agree 0, disagree 13082.
- Arm F (A1-LADDER #241, fw/a1-iter13.md): same entry, sell 1/3 at 2x, 1/3 at 5x, 1/3 at 15x, rest at 20 min, pull/quiet = 0 for the rest; sim 2.37 vs tp3 2.39 with total-loss share 5 % vs 14 %. Judge by P&L and worst day vs arm A, not only the mean.
- Kill: arm A mean < 1.3 over 40 trades. Ready for live only after 2 profitable days, no bugs, enough trades; sellability (hook skim, Ben eth_call) still open; only Ben switches (D-030).