H3000 WETH 1M chase
Analyst 1 · enter at first 1M cross · paper, $10 a trade, since 13 Oct · idea #2264 · updated 17 Oct 07:01 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: Forward n5 (arm B 0.96). Sellability: ppfeeds #2346 corrected sim: 22/25 WETH pools sell OK via the pool's own router (not UR), 'sellcross 0/43' was a sim bug. Live lane must buy+sell via the pool router (whitelist). Still needs forward n>=15 (testmgr), decide-by 17 Oct.
Still open:
- Replay n65 mean 1.49 (analyst1); our rerun incl. LP pulls: arm B (pull=0) 1.06 n87, 27 zeros; outside-wallet sell sim not done
- sellability: 22/25 pools OK via pool router (fw ppfeeds/sellcross-weth-2346.md); fresh-wallet real buy->sell not yet proven (Ben-only)
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: n>=20 mean<1.0 (arm B). Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$10.79
Trades done
20
11 up, 9 down
Best trade
1.9x
Exit rule shown
B
LP pull = 0 (main); tp 2x sl 0.5x
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 34 trades, mean 1.45x, +$153.88 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule B, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A LP pull sold at last price | 20 | 1.15x | 0 | 0 | 8 | +$29.46 |
| B LP pull = 0 (main); tp 2x sl 0.5x | 20 | 1.05x | 0 | 0 | 9 | +$10.79 |
Every trade (exit rule B)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0xcdc8430fc758ff94d153eb304797f8c373337992d6617ab2d02f1d0ef205b0da | 16 Oct 22:23 | $10 | time | 1.08x (+8.5%) +$0.85 |
| 19 | 0xc5556e10f9320e1ef9d07f3adc6474ebaf276e29812e32132aa568530a3f3a51 | 16 Oct 15:14 | $10 | time | 1.41x (+40.6%) +$4.06 |
| 18 | 0x4c4ecc204a5e9da9196489e46b4a7a82c6305a1806fa601ea18c8e7143028423 | 16 Oct 12:52 | $10 | tp | 1.86x (+86.0%) +$8.60 |
| 17 | 0xb0873832dc0cfc85cb9019eb437c70dc23a71f59209cacd2a0d9cd1f0eb6ecd9 | 16 Oct 05:21 | $10 | time | 0.71x (-29.1%) -$2.91 |
| 16 | 0x5e3b0d14e416dd5910a4d4177da582bc8e17854fc11ff8bb996bf63e92c0875d | 15 Oct 21:01 | $10 | time | 1.18x (+17.5%) +$1.75 |
| 15 | 0xde6f9aec6deea3a4486cce8a232267017c443f365a287e8c051c59fb2943fea1 | 15 Oct 19:39 | $10 | tp | 1.86x (+86.0%) +$8.60 |
| 14 | 0x3f92896d1b1fc90e01b224520b81be9e1c52c4f33df0989d0ce09eb208e1cbbd | 15 Oct 14:22 | $10 | stop | 0.45x (-55.0%) -$5.50 |
| 13 | 0x877cb3116f150a778acac58e3c3a0d1702de910e776ef3b30603193a5ab1b0d5 | 15 Oct 12:42 | $10 | time | 1.79x (+78.6%) +$7.86 |
| 12 | 0xbc901e71c9067ba2601bd1594652e6ff6eee0befad6f14104876092514f159e0 | 15 Oct 12:16 | $10 | stop | 0.45x (-55.0%) -$5.50 |
| 11 | 0x4b64135436cad16c0ae420b5631d6fc68cbaf4b9acffb5d5b68e8310c5ca43e7 | 15 Oct 01:17 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 10 | 0x9e6ca4cf97d17560d47f8a5b40d8c6042fc8dfded38d1363abac36e1cdfb736d | 14 Oct 19:02 | $10 | time | 1.69x (+69.1%) +$6.91 |
| 9 | 0x56ab58ffed0f9dc7baf1eb099d66199c99dae96114997cae0672b82cadef5451 | 14 Oct 13:24 | $10 | stop | 0.45x (-55.0%) -$5.50 |
| 8 | 0x0899897c8de36a998e4468b93097862df449d85545852705ea658f377f34f1c9 | 14 Oct 10:01 | $10 | tp | 1.86x (+86.0%) +$8.60 |
| 7 | 0xc2d9e54378bca28d894575675874e46a5b87d176f8290369d1a5c771680c57a5 | 14 Oct 08:00 | $10 | time | 1.03x (+3.4%) +$0.34 |
| 6 | 0x192c9d5c3035931cfe8697f344bd38132f8cde8e0adab7407b28a5ad4f62903b | 14 Oct 03:18 | $10 | stop | 0.45x (-55.0%) -$5.50 |
| 5 | 0x17f726fcd109a583026c9baaaa7b286ea974f0435c4d869224d46a9c40bbe0ab | 14 Oct 01:22 | $10 | time | 0.64x (-35.7%) -$3.57 |
| 4 | 0xaca7f4c0d4c942e09b68c5c9ae5e1c4d9cd158ad1eda27bbb2aae3d245080542 | 13 Oct 18:21 | $10 | tp | 1.86x (+86.0%) +$8.60 |
| 3 | 0xa6512a554c105778a8be5630ce91126f1ee0c299b1e2ea65bd673c2e9c474738 | 13 Oct 13:08 | $10 | stop | 0.45x (-55.0%) -$5.50 |
| 2 | 0x77a2f375a10b017436e34bd523ca2b3827459f425190d6c7f36da126a1b796fb | 13 Oct 11:06 | $10 | pull | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 1 | 0x8cf723e5d317113fe8e2461cd626fcaf9753fdf2c25dceb23308de5e01273df3 | 13 Oct 08:38 | $10 | tp | 1.86x (+86.0%) +$8.60 |
Full Test Manager report
# H1M (A1-H3000-1M, #2264) paper test - 17 Oct 00:01 UTC
Spec: analyst1/a1-h3000-1m-chase.md. Replay n19 mean 1.58 (history rows below include tape history). Waiting 1, open 0, skipped {'cap_first>=150k': 3}.
- arm A all (pull sold at last price): n 37, mean 1.29x, <1x 12, zeros 0
- arm B all (pull = 0, main): n 37, mean 1.24x, <1x 13, zeros 2
- arm B forward only: n 20, mean 1.05x, <1x 9, zeros 2
Kill: n>=20 mean<1.0 (arm B). Open: WETH-quote sellability probe; decide-by 17 Oct.