H3000 hooked pools

Analyst 2 · 6 exit arms · paper, $10 a trade, since 09 Oct · idea #100 #115 #131 #135 · updated 11 Oct 15:00 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.

Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven

Waiting for: native 0xcc pools dropped 10 Oct (unsellable, #822); WETH a80 pools behind closed routers, unproven; forward sample restarts on WETH only | testmgr2 | days

Still open:

SELLABILITY FAIL (auditor2 10 Oct): outsider sell pays 1e-4 of real on whitelisted-registry hook
Replay survivorship: 51 unresolved runs dropped, count as 0 and re-run

Paper run, no real money

Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: forward mean < 2.0x over 30 trades. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.

Total P&L

+$495.82

Trades done

14 up, 0 down

Best trade

4.7x

Exit rule shown

sell all at 5x

P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)

Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.

Other exit rules on the same coins

Rule	Trades	Mean	2x+	10x+	Losers	P&L at $10
E time exit 3 h, no TP	14	32.80x	12	11	2	+$4452.23
D sell all at 30x	14	27.35x	14	14	0	+$3688.41
C sell all at 20x	14	18.44x	14	14	0	+$2441.88
F ladder 20/30/40/60x at 0.3 WETH	14	14.71x	6	6	8	+$1919.59
B half 5x, half 10x	14	6.77x	14	0	0	+$807.24
A sell all at 5x	14	4.54x	14	0	0	+$495.82

Every trade (exit rule A)

#	Pool	Time	In	Why sold	Result
14	0xc428bf5a1d5c655b079ddecb5888fde91590c03b4e57904717f9cb6bf2348f56	11 Oct 11:08	$10	tp · cap $38k → $177k	4.53x (+353.0%) +$35.30
13	0x75a014f4422fc26e702487acdab68672637955fd4241b0d6a87086412705c876	11 Oct 09:42	$10	tp · cap $52k → $249k	4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76
12	0xdb781c47a99faa08cf5facc3789a5ce61d2a48607974a1add81a813a6ed73813	11 Oct 07:05	$10	tp · cap $64k → $292k	4.38x (+338.1%) +$33.81
11	0x4e4d8b0bb582054fe7abe224ca9bceb4d1344a4b071e8a6fe0fa5e34ac515e90	11 Oct 04:05	$10	tp · cap $76k → $367k	4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76
10	0x79c2f43419aa7d5e4b70604e855a00c7e3bc14ee0de52de6780202a86854bc8b	10 Oct 23:28	$10	tp · cap $45k → $216k	4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76
9	0x9af236d3eff9b3e8009c0a9b8dce1b290412cdb333909b5e2335c268f757bc08	10 Oct 19:28	$10	tp · cap $52k → $250k	4.67x (+367.2%) +$36.72
8	0x22ea30be9bf0465b75472eeef73e964981d1774968b8c6ad15583248a2a1b4a2	10 Oct 13:20	$10	tp · cap $35k → $157k	4.28x (+328.0%) +$32.80
7	0x4610ae223f22f519e3d05da444bcd5ec59197f88d6bfcc84bd8183e854faac6f	10 Oct 12:04	$10	tp · cap $73k → $354k	4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76
6	0xb72be2aaa3431578fc5a30a12ac0c7d39e2caaa85f450ccc70b2c15f1041a2e9	10 Oct 05:45	$10	tp · cap $69k → $280k	3.94x (+294.2%) +$29.42
5	0xc0a904d9a65e1fe708b921942a828a47d330218ed094b3d93388a071bae9b6ab	10 Oct 03:40	$10	tp · cap $58k → $280k	4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76
4	0xd1f60c657c2283a9cdda64441635d73909b399eb9445f34d3ba09257878c4ce9	09 Oct 23:33	$10	tp · cap $58k → $278k	4.62x (+361.6%) +$36.16
3	0xfd2d55f4fa82ce8868f56cc28acdf6814590a7e5acd6fa6de08c1ab5ee100b3d	09 Oct 17:44	$10	tp	4.67x (+367.0%) +$36.70
2	0xee0c46c9168e7588dbd895bdbc3bf9c1a42ba952f50bae74109c8d7722409a1b	09 Oct 14:34	$10	tp · cap $48k → $221k	4.43x (+343.5%) +$34.35
1	0xc0b07eee6695a88be5e2b2f85abfc8a3d8e521dbc1987f93a176e8dea3bab52f	09 Oct 14:31	$10	tp · cap $68k → $327k	4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76

Full Test Manager report

# A2-H3000 forward paper test (Test Manager) - 11 Oct 08:00 UTC

Rules: fw/a2-h3000-brief.md (0.04 ETH, +60 s entry at reserve >= 0.4, A: 5x, B: half 5x/half 10x, stop 0.5, 4 h, 0.3% fee + 3% slippage per side, stuck = half value).
- H3000 pools seen: 36; hooks (first 10 chars): {'0x07029aac': 1, '0xbb303d34': 1, '0xaa63e9a9': 1, '0x69ecf19e': 1, '0xbe4246e2': 1, '0xb5a205ba': 1, '0xec2035c2': 1, '0x7f014d05': 1, '0x04e5182d': 1, '0xcf180bcb': 1, '0x43deb7c3': 1, '0x30186801': 1, '0xee927430': 1, '0xb95e3863': 1, '0xf1065c4e': 1, '0x0bdecb6e': 1, '0x97b776be': 1, '0x727b149f': 1, '0x59567599': 1, '0xa7ac21fe': 1, '0x01f59f8c': 1, '0x6ea97906': 1, '0xba9bf79b': 1, '0xd8523215': 1, '0x4466cc3f': 1, '0xd3ffee9a': 1, '0xf2874a7a': 1, '0x40064019': 1, '0xe89470f3': 1, '0x7487ab96': 1, '0xb4a93d86': 1, '0xf77770e5': 1, '0x4a298903': 1, '0x14ec24d0': 1, '0x7e5cf886': 1, '0xa2b27c9a': 1}; waiting: 18; unresolved arm-runs (tape ended before exit): 0; skipped: {'native_0xcc_unsellable': 135, 'reserve<0.4': 4}; entered with earlier sibling: 0
- arm A: closed 14, mean 4.54x, zeros 0; ON-TIME (lag<=30 s) n 9 mean 4.51x
- arm B: closed 14, mean 6.77x, zeros 0; ON-TIME (lag<=30 s) n 9 mean 6.72x
- arm C: closed 14, mean 18.44x, zeros 0; ON-TIME (lag<=30 s) n 9 mean 18.37x (sell all at 20x; kill: mean < 5x over 30 trades)
- arm D: closed 14, mean 27.35x, zeros 0; ON-TIME (lag<=30 s) n 9 mean 27.32x (sell all at 30x)
- arm F: closed 14, mean 14.71x, zeros 8; ON-TIME (lag<=30 s) n 9 mean 15.23x (0.3 WETH, 25% each at 20x/30x/40x/60x, stop 0.5, 4 h; #135; sim 26x; compare D)
- arm E: closed 14, mean 32.80x, zeros 2; ON-TIME (lag<=30 s) n 9 mean 30.82x (time exit 3 h, no TP, stop 0.5, depth gate; added 9 Oct from A2 fw/a2-h3000-exits.md, #115)
- Late = feed lag > 30 s (#153): live would not have entered at +60 s; judge by the ON-TIME figure. No ModifyLiquidity events in v4tape yet, so pulls are invisible.
- Sign check agree 1, disagree 99177.
- Hook filter (#219, no look-ahead): a pool trades in the main arms only if no other pool with the same hook was initialised before its entry. Pools with an earlier sibling are NOT dropped; they are reported here (trades_sib.csv): arm A: closed 0, mean 0.00x, zeros 0; ON-TIME (lag<=30 s) n 0 mean 0.00x | arm B: closed 0, mean 0.00x, zeros 0; ON-TIME (lag<=30 s) n 0 mean 0.00x | arm D: closed 0, mean 0.00x, zeros 0; ON-TIME (lag<=30 s) n 0 mean 0.00x
- Tape: v4tape follows H3000 pools 4 h after first swap since 07:00 UTC 9 Oct (#107); pools before that may have unresolved runs (kept out of the mean).
- Kill: forward mean < 2.0x over 30 trades; no ramp pool for 3 days; sells revert (sellability not testable on paper; Ben decides a $5 live sell test).
- Ready for live only after 2 profitable days, no bugs, enough trades; only Ben switches (D-030).