H3000 native unique-hook, sell at 10 min
Analyst 1 · native fee-3000 unique hook · A sell +600 s, B +630 s, C tp5, D tp5+n_pre>=3 · paper, $10 a trade, since 10 Oct · idea #293 · updated 10 Oct 19:40 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
The Test Manager has not yet confirmed:
- SELLABILITY FAIL (auditor2 10 Oct): outsider sell pays 1e-4 of real on whitelisted-registry hook
- Sample too small
- Pulls invisible until ModifyLiquidity
- No reserve impact term
- Look-ahead: hook uniqueness only as of entry
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: after 30 v16724 pools arm A mean <2.0x or zeros >40%; D: after 40 trades D mean not above C. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$1152.15
Trades done
15
11 up, 4 down
Best trade
14.7x
Exit rule shown
A
enter first swap +5 s (ON-TIME), sell at first swap +600 s, pull=0
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B sell at +630 s | 15 | 8.88x | 10 | 10 | 4 | +$1181.53 |
| A enter first swap +5 s (ON-TIME), sell at first swap +600 s, pull=0 | 15 | 8.68x | 10 | 10 | 4 | +$1152.15 |
| E | 14 | 9.21x | 10 | 10 | 4 | +$1149.07 |
| F | 14 | 9.21x | 10 | 10 | 4 | +$1149.07 |
| D tp5 stop 0.5 4 h, only if >=3 swaps before entry (A2-H3000U-RAMP, #307) | 14 | 3.47x | 10 | 0 | 4 | +$346.08 |
| C tp5 stop 0.5 4 h, same pools | 15 | 3.24x | 10 | 0 | 5 | +$336.08 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0x81f05ecfbf7031e703269cb36e87c77d73d955a3b7b6e0d825a369c713c90b04 | 10 Oct 15:17 | $10 | time · cap $18k → $282k | 14.67x (+1367.2%) +$136.72 |
| 14 | 0xd47ab588850282719370cdbe545884a616788a096ac396c036aa135fcf19e858 | 10 Oct 10:05 | $10 | time · cap $19k → $276k | 13.90x (+1289.9%) +$128.99 |
| 13 | 0x32d474f884bdd41d841897495a3a652b8e04fedd9d97863e58608bb3df3f8442 | 10 Oct 09:33 | $10 | time · cap $18k → $278k | 14.46x (+1345.7%) +$134.57 |
| 12 | 0x35c03c40e0ec6562079c8d69e21bada12a739544a37098cc6f665181879c91df | 10 Oct 09:26 | $10 | time · cap $19k → $270k | 13.58x (+1257.8%) +$125.78 |
| 11 | 0x9c427bd1f2910f0fb23d7f549cd678b44096511a10ad7c5f61deacd5f67c6d5a | 10 Oct 07:40 | $10 | time · cap $270k → $105k | 0.36x (-63.5%) -$6.35 |
| 10 | 0x643b28d78976db02bde26e45dae4b085121683ca22bf1289c763c7ee1bc2d521 | 10 Oct 07:14 | $10 | time · cap $270k → $96k | 0.33x (-66.9%) -$6.69 |
| 9 | 0xd3591e6a698d20771130d7e00daa9f9fdbc5839656ee7e156e3591ada1cc03fc | 10 Oct 07:06 | $10 | time · cap $5k → $8k | 1.31x (+30.8%) +$3.08 |
| 8 | 0xf1b877c30ce23ca5da9739e1ff9d9a443cee17a048b0a540fd3a85685d0cb7e8 | 10 Oct 07:01 | $10 | time · cap $18k → $256k | 13.32x (+1232.5%) +$123.25 |
| 7 | 0x363b7d4f59d3abd6111acfdb9e9f98f4d0171bd52e753809b5042ede8599a958 | 10 Oct 06:22 | $10 | time · cap $17k → $259k | 14.34x (+1333.6%) +$133.36 |
| 6 | 0xd496bdb95a41ae9ce9478ca8c7d10211f23e2c23796b8e14ceed27e15021bf59 | 10 Oct 04:36 | $10 | time · cap $181k → $107k | 0.56x (-44.5%) -$4.45 |
| 5 | 0x1c5d0c37843d737605cfc2bdf4b4e3628540e359df49f64e59300a2b839789fc | 10 Oct 03:55 | $10 | time · cap $17k → $190k | 10.51x (+950.8%) +$95.08 |
| 4 | 0x691f9ac339f695346f68e0f38501ce8b28ef99b6792823bee5816312dc52399e | 10 Oct 03:16 | $10 | time · cap $17k → $193k | 10.66x (+966.5%) +$96.65 |
| 3 | 0x1addc49bd531903b195ef7fe9ab7fa9b98051005503bcd8a8dc7628063f5b602 | 10 Oct 01:30 | $10 | time · cap $228k → $108k | 0.44x (-55.7%) -$5.57 |
| 2 | 0xe6fc965dfd43d443da6b020d362f32c58cfbaf0a0393aa8f4e228b4a5372b9c2 | 10 Oct 00:51 | $10 | time · cap $19k → $222k | 11.20x (+1019.5%) +$101.95 |
| 1 | 0x7a1246e6ec15f644e5d19edde12addadb8c313644553ba3ab64689b030d26331 | 10 Oct 00:12 | $10 | time · cap $18k → $204k | 10.58x (+957.8%) +$95.78 |
Full Test Manager report
# A1-H3000N-CLOCK (native fee-3000 unique-hook, time exit) forward paper test (Test Manager) - 10 Oct 12:40 UTC
Spec: fw/a1-iter18-testmgr.md (#293), evidence fw/a1-iter18.md. Feed v4tape, native quote, fee 3000, hook set, hook with no earlier pool at entry. Entry first swap +5 s, ON-TIME lag <= 2.5 s, 0.04 ETH, 0.3% fee + 3% slippage per side, no reserve impact. Pull (liq <= 10% of peak) = 0.
- Pools seen 114, waiting 32, open arm-runs 0; skipped {'hook has earlier pool': 54, 'late>2.5s': 13}; sign check agree 0 disagree 49863
- arm A (sell at first swap +600 s): n 15, mean 8.68x, zeros 0, fill<=10 s 12; v16724 only: n 0, mean 0.00x, zeros 0, fill<=10 s 0
- arm B (sell at first swap +630 s): n 15, mean 8.88x, zeros 0, fill<=10 s 12; v16724 only: n 0, mean 0.00x, zeros 0, fill<=10 s 0
- arm C (tp5 stop 0.5 4 h): n 15, mean 3.24x, zeros 1, fill<=10 s 12; v16724 only: n 0, mean 0.00x, zeros 0, fill<=10 s 0
- arm D (tp5 stop 0.5 4 h, only if >=3 swaps before entry (A2-H3000U-RAMP, #307)): n 14, mean 3.47x, zeros 0, fill<=10 s 12; v16724 only: n 0, mean 0.00x, zeros 0, fill<=10 s 0
- arm E (sell at first swap +600 s): n 14, mean 9.21x, zeros 0, fill<=10 s 12; v16724 only: n 0, mean 0.00x, zeros 0, fill<=10 s 0
- arm F (sell at first swap +600 s): n 14, mean 9.21x, zeros 0, fill<=10 s 12; v16724 only: n 0, mean 0.00x, zeros 0, fill<=10 s 0
- Hook code size 16,724 B is only known for pools in the feed after ~15:25 UTC 9 Oct (pools.jsonl code_size); older ones are "unknown". Paper values at +300/450/630/900 s are in trades.csv (v300..v900).
- Sim expects: sell +600 s mean 5.20 (unique hook), 7.28 for v16724; tp5 3.23. Kill: after 30 v16724 pools, arm A mean < 2.0x or zero rate > 40%.
- A2-0XCC (#325): arms E/F gate on flag bits hooks&0x3FFF==0xcc (known at init, shared hooks allowed; column flag14), +600 s. Kill: after 30 forward 0xcc pools mean < 2.0x or zeros > 30%. Expect (hist) E/F ~7.6-8.0x, zeros 1-7%. Not live: single actor, outside sellability unproven.
- Not for live: operator pulls at ~1,325 s, outside-wallet sellability unproven; Ben decides a $5 buy+sell test (D-030).