A1-HLATE
hooked WETH H3000, 200k touch at age 5-15 min, tp3/5/8 stop .5 · paper, $10 a trade, since 16 Oct · idea #264 · updated 20 Oct 07:51 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: scripted ramp, sell untested (outsider WETH sellability probe open)
Still open:
- sellsim at touch time (21/21 at 62s failed), forward on-time n>=15 (now 5), 18/23 on-time rows replay
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: arm B mean<1.0 at n20 or pulls>30%; decide-by 20 Oct. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
+$547.50
Trades done
21
15 up, 6 down
Best trade
4.7x
Exit rule shown
B
tp5
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 105 trades, mean 4.55x, +$3729.11 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule B, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C tp8 | 21 | 4.99x | 13 | 0 | 8 | +$837.46 |
| B tp5 | 21 | 3.61x | 15 | 0 | 6 | +$547.50 |
| A tp3 | 21 | 2.63x | 19 | 0 | 2 | +$341.84 |
Every trade (exit rule B)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0xa7936aa512af8e0bd3b1c301a984fa0ea9d08836f9f938ba6d07fbc287e2a710 | 20 Oct 01:53 | $10 | tp | 4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76 |
| 20 | 0xb13298f82166293c9831a7d37ddef027581dbcac82c33d6f2174231dffdb26c8 | 19 Oct 22:49 | $10 | tp | 4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76 |
| 19 | 0xd730f426c37ca21df01157a7ff73cf3d2e9caeed5c87dbbd615701492f16748e | 19 Oct 20:00 | $10 | tp | 4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76 |
| 18 | 0x47edd56ddadf2eb5029e65566ba762ba87385e25c7526c16a5a3a94c13c97b2b | 19 Oct 17:37 | $10 | tp | 4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76 |
| 17 | 0xa24002e2e6b0b92dd71d4edecc109848c5bf86b1e52f1c6ab61de441c2a4e7f8 | 19 Oct 16:07 | $10 | tp | 4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76 |
| 16 | 0x88401f06e90aebe1adf8062a39b11819d3ff75dc4d88fc53de4bcfeed4e4dc97 | 19 Oct 11:09 | $10 | tp | 4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76 |
| 15 | 0x1f3c9a7dd32c98644be90f4e2ad62cfe39fbf44954aa53cbf34d54d29d54e0eb | 19 Oct 10:17 | $10 | tp | 4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76 |
| 14 | 0x36d3d19416ccc0449817d58c6db3aea6268fea56f7708bbe9666db18d203659a | 19 Oct 00:55 | $10 | tp | 4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76 |
| 13 | 0xbe23b7c67f4a1b5b837561763d1e0dfcb787b68f0082f3279a5232932552f190 | 18 Oct 21:07 | $10 | tp | 4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76 |
| 12 | 0x612e5ea25eeebc396b87ce2ea50faa7b372a975a18fce6571213a5fdde09173e | 18 Oct 20:13 | $10 | tp | 4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76 |
| 11 | 0xefee979c98cbd3263ae5307bbb0fde8856e66d98d2e7a5865e1ec1338f256614 | 18 Oct 15:05 | $10 | tp | 4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76 |
| 10 | 0xc02bd9debee4f19023a1b553cc1394c5c46871acd193308e843be0b109e1eab7 | 18 Oct 13:33 | $10 | tp | 4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76 |
| 9 | 0x4d32bf1833e4d9983026ae2b75fc3023250f82263492bb96c6e8bf8d0c7f5ee9 | 18 Oct 07:38 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-6.5%) -$0.65 |
| 8 | 0x55db85500dcc952c78767b64a7d6f52637efdb33fa0ac1fa6df56334e8a8424c | 18 Oct 03:15 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-6.5%) -$0.65 |
| 7 | 0x70516dc25cf625f7bdf204d3656581c9c3d6c3efd028cbb881808c044634ca0b | 17 Oct 22:45 | $10 | tp | 4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76 |
| 6 | 0x6626a3b237e754a14480442b071d4dc7e6611122696cbf8839939075f12b6c89 | 17 Oct 03:20 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-6.5%) -$0.65 |
| 5 | 0xcdc8430fc758ff94d153eb304797f8c373337992d6617ab2d02f1d0ef205b0da | 16 Oct 20:50 | $10 | tp | 4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76 |
| 4 | 0x0bef923df8853f9666f6794ab794d777bda32d9eec39682580c0931d76ffe5de | 16 Oct 18:22 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-6.5%) -$0.65 |
| 3 | 0xd360228b701a363a71e208defad895aec401419437463218b271c6a1b9b3bd45 | 16 Oct 15:44 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-6.5%) -$0.65 |
| 2 | 0x112bbddd4d4d97d2f38b358f5f3ca0bf6fa174b77be6c80e242da40e203f5a24 | 16 Oct 14:29 | $10 | quiet | 0.94x (-6.5%) -$0.65 |
| 1 | 0x4c4ecc204a5e9da9196489e46b4a7a82c6305a1806fa601ea18c8e7143028423 | 16 Oct 12:27 | $10 | tp | 4.68x (+367.6%) +$36.76 |
Full Test Manager report
# A1-HLATE: hooked WETH late confirm 200k at age 5-15 min, tp3/5/8 stop .5 (ledger 264) forward paper test (Test Manager) - 20 Oct 00:51 UTC
Spec: fw/a1-iter31.md iteration 6. Feed v4tape (forward). Hunt: entry 200k, runner to 1M-3M. SELL UNTESTED (scripted ramp). Stop 0.5x, 4 h, fee + 3% slip each side, pull = 0, quiet pool = last print capped at 1.0. Jump = touch price >=1.5x previous swap (skipped).
- No-hook fee-100 pools in tape: 115; with supply 87; waiting 40; open (arm legs) 0; skipped {'no supply': 1, 'age not 5-15 min': 18}
- arm A (tp3): on time n 23, mean 2.72x, <1x 1, tp 22, pull 0, quiet 1 | late (excluded) n 33, mean 2.69x, <1x 2, tp 31, pull 0, quiet 2
- arm B (tp5): on time n 23, mean 4.51x, <1x 1, tp 22, pull 0, quiet 1 | late (excluded) n 33, mean 3.77x, <1x 8, tp 25, pull 0, quiet 8
- arm C (tp8): on time n 23, mean 6.91x, <1x 2, tp 21, pull 0, quiet 2 | late (excluded) n 33, mean 5.30x, <1x 11, tp 22, pull 0, quiet 11
- Kill: arm B mean < 1.0 at n20 or pulls > 30%. Replay tp3 2.64, tp5 4.32, tp8 6.54 (n97, optimistic: scripted ramp). Caveat: outsider sell depth unproven; cap uses a stale ETHUSD.