A1-LATE315 late-sell skip
A1 #435/#454 · v4 no-hook weth/native, entry +315 s, skip pools with sell share >0.448 in 200-300 s · paper, $10 a trade, since 11 Oct · idea #435 #454 fw/a1-iter46.md · updated 12 Oct 13:50 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: Fwd A n14 mean 0.60x (12 Oct); kill read at n60 or earlier if n>=20 and upper80<1.05; owner testmgr
Still open:
- auditor 5-check
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: arm A mean < 1.05 over 60 closed. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$125.52
Trades done
21
3 up, 18 down
Best trade
2.8x
Exit rule shown
A
sell share <=.448 (the rule)
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A sell share <=.448 (the rule) | 21 | 0.40x | 3 | 0 | 18 | -$125.52 |
| B sell share >.448 (must lose) | 589 | 0.04x | 7 | 0 | 582 | -$5670.57 |
| C every active pool (baseline) | 610 | 0.05x | 10 | 0 | 600 | -$5796.09 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0x31503dacc16222a325d6399c985278e4a3b3647ddb9b3144d5f701eb69a5bdf4 | 12 Oct 09:52 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 20 | 0xeab36bc1974b93a294fdf4aea0890a4390c2bc2023b220705dff366ab9180643 | 12 Oct 09:33 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 19 | 0x410f2ee91987ac41038b7c99f8ac10b3d30f51d5f53bee77ac2ed4675d75eb19 | 12 Oct 08:57 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 18 | 0xcdcd7c4f4ca05788db595a4c04da43a022d8b6d8160ac427b67dd144af8672c3 | 12 Oct 08:38 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 17 | 0xbb36231df9ed94dcbbc2630ad66c433dc7209b6c439a42c10d68615f6b6cea61 | 12 Oct 06:17 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 16 | 0x3b9c060ed0fbfc5355b24af4879b6edb40ee1c3eec3a30ee41ceaf5e43976ffd | 12 Oct 04:52 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 15 | 0x9502b58d8f55f408246752865f9a23bab36566382945508e6dd35cf053355725 | 12 Oct 04:13 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 14 | 0x2db5a08d18640ef92c0edc4204e8ce389c0b643515fcf388038745397bdf239c | 12 Oct 00:57 | $10 | tp | 2.81x (+180.6%) +$18.06 |
| 13 | 0x47aae745311f51d85c57241822c75db984066b261cc84f060c74876c0a2fadb3 | 11 Oct 23:44 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 12 | 0xfb73dfc9d34eb08044870ed332a52117f4da756f0ab68237fc065c398e98297d | 11 Oct 23:36 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 11 | 0x4f74e908b255a0d87bc8e893b57b3c0fd6e85f2e3227fd85c480104e8533431a | 11 Oct 18:09 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.2%) +$18.22 |
| 10 | 0xe7174d09d4a1de8e7579d5d6795892bac5803a5e19fb4b743197c56515db0b66 | 11 Oct 00:18 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 9 | 0xd4aba44022c7fe10f5dffb91f7060d9e30b7352f2d1779c248e97ed62f80de19 | 11 Oct 00:03 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 8 | 0x72a07392c0ec09a39377f7eea677bf0a963209a93e934b9545a2d3ab038bf202 | 10 Oct 23:52 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 7 | 0xc40bfa3d022d5480c5a4cddbc36fae92a8491ed883750615437638240ca92a73 | 10 Oct 21:34 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 6 | 0xf5f2974467a17a991cb12ae5c4f8cf3cee601071d914f89a94625569c03c8d8c | 10 Oct 21:14 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 5 | 0xa4af5219fef8ad37db086aad97bf56a147728547eadb201270f9f59ef40ba201 | 10 Oct 20:40 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 4 | 0xb9b96eedf54bf1cbaa54712d8fcb0ce17879746241fcdc176bd168312c8c43ad | 10 Oct 20:24 | $10 | tp | 2.82x (+182.0%) +$18.20 |
| 3 | 0xe6f3553a7fbdef467ce9bb2ec9d265596caa4119e9b47e7a6028d60ed9fb93f3 | 10 Oct 20:03 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 2 | 0x5f73b6b04adfcce9b6b95e3bd6e739ce2bc2c26bcd55364138392243f357563e | 10 Oct 19:46 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 1 | 0xb616ee2ad57a9ffaf4193635c0ff3aeeacc7eb04fd79ed8551b18331524ef945 | 10 Oct 19:31 | $10 | dead | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
Full Test Manager report
# A1-LATE315 (late entry +315 s, v4 no-hook weth/native, sell-share filter) forward paper test (Test Manager, #1294) - 12 Oct 06:50 UTC
Hunt: entry +315 s at cap <150k at birth, target the 1M-5M runners that keep going; tp3 sl.5 4 h. Brief: fw/a1-iter46.md (replay A 1.15x n748, B .75x).
- Feed pools hooks=0 weth/native: 4454; skipped {'<25 swaps in 300 s': 2655, 'no tape': 675, 'entry lag >15 s': 21, 'not active after 150 s': 364, 'no entry swap yet': 106, 'no swaps in 200-300 s': 3, 'no cap/supply': 2, 'cap_first >=150k': 10, 'open': 8}
- A sell share <=.448 (the rule): n 21 closed, mean 0.40x (upper bound, dead pools at last print: 1.66x), median 0.00x, win 3, tp 3, stop 0, time 0, dead 18
- B sell share >.448 (must lose): n 589 closed, mean 0.04x (upper bound, dead pools at last print: 1.15x), median 0.00x, win 7, tp 7, stop 7, time 0, dead 575
- C every active pool (baseline): n 610 closed, mean 0.05x (upper bound, dead pools at last print: 1.17x), median 0.00x, win 10, tp 10, stop 7, time 0, dead 593
- Costs: pool fee + 3% slippage per side, pull (liq<=50% of peak) = 0, tape end = last print (4 h from birth). Cap uses supply x ETHUSD (hourly file, approximate). Reserve>=1 ETH not checked. Feed lags init by ~45 min, so this is a paper-only timing (live needs a faster feed).
- Kill: arm A mean < 1.05 over 60 closed. Ready for live only after 2 profitable days, no bugs, n>=60; only Ben switches (D-030).