LP owner with past 1M runner
Analyst 2 · enter first swap +30/+60 s when LP owner had a past runner · paper, $10 a trade, since 10 Oct · idea #494 · updated 12 Oct 12:30 Bangkok, refreshes every minute.
Not verified yet: treat these numbers as unproven
Waiting for: 9 closed arm A 0.65x; next 25 closed (~5 days) then kill if <1.0x or audit. Owner testmgr3.
Still open:
- auditor 5-check
Paper run, no real money
Test Manager forward test on research-box. Kill rule: A mean <1.0x after 25 closed. Live only after 2 profitable days without bugs; only Ben switches.
Total P&L
-$122.10
Trades done
20
1 up, 19 down
Best trade
4.8x
Exit rule shown
A
+30 s
Replay of past coins (not in the numbers above): 54 trades, mean 0.80x, -$105.76 at $10. Backtest, no forward evidence.
P&L over time (US dollars, Bangkok time)
Each step is a trade with exit rule A, numbered in time order.
Other exit rules on the same coins
| Rule | Trades | Mean | 2x+ | 10x+ | Losers | P&L at $10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B +60 s | 19 | 0.40x | 1 | 0 | 18 | -$114.21 |
| A +30 s | 20 | 0.39x | 1 | 0 | 19 | -$122.10 |
| X variant | 20 | 0.00x | 0 | 0 | 20 | -$200.00 |
| Z unflagged ref | 231 | 0.83x | 40 | 0 | 191 | -$387.48 |
| N no-history ref | 2269 | 0.40x | 187 | 0 | 2082 | -$13592.12 |
Every trade (exit rule A)
| # | Pool | Time | In | Why sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0x132461e6e733d60a018e9491868371d2780253d6bf6d8a396caac3fe09caade0 | 12 Oct 08:15 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 19 | 0xf1923671ca9281309a865d8b63e28ab13dea3c0297bc14da546e86a921243601 | 12 Oct 08:00 | $10 | stop | 0.36x (-64.2%) -$6.42 |
| 18 | 0x0b3449514342608d299a6d7b6d2dcaa20dff7e7b10eea44d0b0d82855ff7935d | 12 Oct 07:14 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 17 | 0x55dcaaa71db0b39ed9f74882a756e83c6f9ccbd8b53c59a0c56dcf6e14ca047b | 12 Oct 07:13 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 16 | 0x11af0963a858e7afa57155ec99a6086a3f7cb599fae084610de8c82c835a8d2c | 12 Oct 06:51 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 15 | 0x87a86e65dbd17d0c7fde45a3c1df6a19b90a2ce37fb2df60d56399a60b4e44b1 | 12 Oct 06:41 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-52.7%) -$5.27 |
| 14 | 0xe775c715c82aeb6f444ae6d848b3b36c32e2c0327cee3bda8e5ba6d0e5b0f3ce | 12 Oct 06:35 | $10 | stop | 0.47x (-52.8%) -$5.28 |
| 13 | 0xc8068e92f21f9c884bdf4e2182a0f4659b6f48c90ec28d3da8f5626b9509545d | 12 Oct 06:23 | $10 | stop | 0.48x (-52.2%) -$5.22 |
| 12 | 0xda8ad389c8af9970589807dfc718cd24631e4ceb4006bb1d0171ae7e33886602 | 12 Oct 06:21 | $10 | stop | 0.18x (-82.4%) -$8.24 |
| 11 | 0x3578eb60b0b49323da43b478105250d417de75cf294cea80780b37813f83db62 | 11 Oct 20:06 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 10 | 0x88221554709df818c59b33fd57926b45f5b08b2d0f5072239ff25bcca7185a30 | 11 Oct 17:42 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 9 | 0x07cc06c16cacbfeef0861da7e9ddbf149b02417373318644eed92afa29f55577 | 11 Oct 16:05 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 8 | 0x30d421501b1158ba48ad2c51d11a6aec8a0ebd6b52f144ba6eb1551fea22cc0b | 10 Oct 22:29 | $10 | tp | 4.84x (+383.8%) +$38.38 |
| 7 | 0x5e481c9f06529ac7617567a29909b71852a8926d29634312fb60ead5a86764ac | 10 Oct 22:27 | $10 | stop | 0.37x (-63.0%) -$6.30 |
| 6 | 0xd8b8b92cb48556586e656268f61e20aae5a474dd96972e28e2ae86403eec2050 | 10 Oct 22:24 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 5 | 0xbf864f423989920dc5c29cb3c3a60da0a446aff5b5ffed97686aafa9a6d1103b | 10 Oct 22:22 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 4 | 0xe6773d99c2068ef0e14d6236db5f1962f0c22279561df216b07128e887fffd37 | 10 Oct 21:31 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 3 | 0xecb7272ba231e644b6144f302c4cc70cc4f2dae1778c8557fb22d7eec072ea2b | 10 Oct 21:30 | $10 | stop | 0.33x (-67.3%) -$6.73 |
| 2 | 0x59f05142f6e849303380a1c596cd46618699ba6865f095cf0be75664e623958e | 10 Oct 21:29 | $10 | quiet | 0.00x (-100.0%) -$10.00 |
| 1 | 0x24ff8071845dd51dd96320a52196cbeb1a6801ce393afaed2482b4f39400fa66 | 10 Oct 20:56 | $10 | stop | 0.30x (-70.2%) -$7.02 |
Full Test Manager report
# A2-LPOWN (LP owner with a past 1M runner) forward paper test (Test Manager, #802) - 12 Oct 05:30 UTC
Hunt: enter first swap +30 s (A, X) or +60 s (B), any cap, target 1M-10M+. Brief: fw/a2-lpowner-800.md (owner with >=1 past 1M pool: H2 1M-rate 46%, 10M 33%, n=98; new owners 1%). Feed: fw/a1feed/lpowner.jsonl (owner at mint, ppfeeds #837).
- Feed pools seen 7547; flagged owners (past runner, history from lpowner.db, stale to ~12:00 UTC) 90; no lpowntape swaps yet for 1089 of 7547 (tape from ppfeeds #848; usdg/other quote pools skipped); skipped {'quote usdg/other': 2227, 'no entry swap': 1660, 'open': 10}
- A flagged +30 s tp5 sl.5 4 h: n 21 closed, mean 0.37x, median 0.00x, win 1, tp 1, pull/quiet 12
- B flagged +60 s same exits: n 19 closed, mean 0.40x, median 0.00x, win 1, tp 1, pull/quiet 10
- X flagged ride tp20, no stop, 4 h: n 21 closed, mean 0.00x, median 0.00x, win 0, tp 0, pull/quiet 21
- Z control (owner with past pools, none a runner): n 241 closed, mean 0.82x, median 0.00x, win 41, tp 41, pull/quiet 199
- N control (new owner): n 2311 closed, mean 0.41x, median 0.00x, win 195, tp 195, pull/quiet 2096
- Costs: pool fee + 3% slippage per side; pull (liq<=50% of peak) = 0, quiet = 0. Mark-to-print exits, fill depth not audited.
- Kill: arm A mean < 1.1 over 30 closed, or A <= Z + 0.3. Ready for live only after 2 profitable days, no bugs, n>=30; only Ben switches (D-030).